Political reality may save Harapan from fallout of making Zahid DPM

Expectations are high that Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will unveil his cabinet tomorrow, with Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi as one of his two deputy prime ministers.

It’s a Catch-22 situation - but the repercussions could be felt further down the line during the six upcoming state elections.

Picking Zahid (above) as his deputy from BN is deemed by observers as a political necessity if Anwar wants a stable federal government.

Without the Umno president, Anwar may lose the support of the majority of BN lawmakers in the upcoming vote of confidence on Dec 19.

However, the move also risks angering Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan support base which wants a clean cabinet that excludes those on trial for corruption.

If Anwar proceeds down this path, in the worst-case scenario, the price to pay may be the Selangor and Negeri Sembilan governments led by his party PKR.

Low turnout in state polls

During GE15, Harapan bagged 52.8 percent of votes in Selangor, followed by PN (27.5 percent), and BN (17.4 percent).

In Negeri Sembilan, Harapan won 44.8 percent of votes, followed by BN (32.2 percent) and PN (22 percent).

While most Selangor and Negeri Sembilan voters live in the state - or just one or two hours’ drive away - if those who voted for Harapan in the 15th general election feel betrayed, they may opt to just stay at home when both states go to the polls.

As was seen during the Malacca and Johor state elections, poor turnout due to political apathy strongly benefited BN - who was able to win two-thirds of the seats in the state assemblies despite winning less than 50 percent of votes.

In the upcoming state elections, however, any benefit from poor turnout is expected to shift to Perikatan Nasional (PN), whose supporters are highly motivated.

PN is also expected to gain support from BN supporters who are against the coalition working with Anwar and Harapan component party DAP.

Any indication of meddling in Zahid’s corruption cases - or if the Umno president is convicted in either of his two cases - would further complicate matters for Anwar and Harapan.

Tough pill to swallow, but voters understand

For now, however, Selangor Harapan leaders Malaysiakini spoke to on condition of anonymity believe that except for some hardcore idealists, most of the coalition’s supporters accept the political necessity of a Zahid deputy premiership.

“Whether it’s Zahid or someone else from Umno (as deputy prime minister) makes no difference to Harapan supporters anymore, to be honest,” said one source, who is an MP.

“The difficult part of accepting to work with Umno already dealt with, the rest are just details.

“They understand if they want to see Harapan in Putrajaya, it comes with this combo (Anwar and Zahid),” the source added.

Another source who is an assemblyperson agreed that, with explanations, voters would come to see the practical need for Zahid to be in Anwar’s cabinet.

“What are Anwar’s choices? BN moves as a collective,” he said.

It is a sentiment shared by Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Oh Ei Sun - who said Anwar should explain this matter to his supporters.

“I think Anwar would need to have some form of heart-to-heart talk with Harapan supporters regarding this rather unfortunate turn of events, that regardless of whether one likes Zahid or not, Harapan needs BN’s support to remain as government. 

“Zahid is the lynchpin in ensuring such BN support and that the alternative is too untenable to contemplate - a PAS-dominated government that would inevitably push through various theocratic policies in a multiracial country. 

“I think Harapan supporters are understanding enough, reluctant though they might be in seeing Zahid’s appointment (as deputy prime minister),” Oh told Malaysiakini.

Extending pact to Selangor?

Meanwhile, Selangor Menteri Besar Amirudin Shari was quoted by Berita Harian today as not rejecting the possibility that Harapan and BN may work together during the state election.

If this happens, it could mitigate any loss of support from Harapan’s hardcore supporters.

Selangor was won by Harapan’s predecessor Pakatan Rakyat in 2008 and has remained with the coalition since.

Meanwhile, Harapan captured Negeri Sembilan in the 2018 general election.

Both Selangor and Negeri Sembilan, together with DAP-controlled Penang, decided not to hold state elections concurrently with GE15. PN-ruled Kelantan, Terengganu, and Kedah have also opted out.

The terms of their state legislatures end in the middle of next year.

Additional reporting by Hariz Mohd

Umno leader: Appointing Zahid as DPM will strengthen govt

Anwar's cabinet expected to be named tomorrow

LETTER | Should Zahid be included in Anwar's cabinet?

Cops urged to probe audio clip on 'plot' to take down govt

DPM post: Zahid unpopular but vital for Anwar’s political survival

At least three May 13 warning videos on TikTok are paid for

'Only one exco post' - Tuan Ibrahim says Pahang BN offer 'unfair'