Bersama to contest in Johor, likely to target DAP, Umno seats

Parti Bersama Malaysia (Bersama) co-leaders Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad have announced that their party will contest in the upcoming Johor state election.

In a statement, the de facto leaders said they will meet later today to discuss which seats to contest.

Three PKR MPs in Johor are known to be aligned to the two, namely, Akmal Nasrullah Nasir (Johor Bahru), Syed Ibrahim Syed Noh (Ledang), and Onn Abu Bakar (Batu Pahat).

Akmal - who is widely viewed as Rafizi’s protege - and Syed Ibrahim were roped into the Madani administration last December, serving as economy minister and deputy natural resources and environmental sustainability minister, respectively.

Rafizi has said that his allies in PKR have been told to stay in the government for now to ensure stability, and only align themselves with Bersama when Parliament is dissolved.

Speculation is rife that the Johor election will also trigger a general election, so it’s unclear whether Akmal and Syed Ibrahim will break ranks if the Johor polls don’t coincide with a federal one.

However, Bersama will likely want to contest in their constituencies.

One seat that Bersama will possibly contest is Stulang, one of the two state seats in Johor Bahru.

According to election data, Stulang is a non-Malay majority seat with 53.3 percent Chinese, 4.9 percent Indian, and 37.8 percent Malay voters.

DAP has held the seat since 2013.

Bersama may also contest the second Johor Bahru state seat, Larkin.

On paper, this seat - previously known as Tanjung Puteri - is an Umno stronghold, which it only lost once in 2018 to Bersatu.

Other possible seats

In the 2022 state election, Umno retook the seat with 41.8 percent of votes, while Bersatu came in second with 25.7 percent of votes. PKR and Muda bagged 16.8 percent and 12.9 percent of votes, respectively, for a combined 29.7 percent.

The 2022 Johor state election was a landslide win for Umno due in part to low voter turnout, with PKR winning just one seat - Bukit Batu.

However, Umno lost significant ground when voters returned for the general election later in November that year, with Pakatan Harapan winning 15 out of 26 Parliament seats, of which PKR won seven.

An analysis of polling district data indicates that in the Johor Bahru Parliament seat contest, PKR came out on top in Larkin in a four-way fight, bagging 39.7 percent of votes compared to Umno (31.1 percent), Bersatu (27.2 percent), and Pejuang (two percent).

In the last state polls, Umno also won Gambir and Serom in Ledang, but PKR won the most votes at the Parliament level during the 2022 general election.

Bersama may also eye Tangkak in Ledang, held by DAP; Buloh Kasap (Umno) and Jementah (DAP) in Segamat; as well as Bukit Batu (PKR) in Kulai, Layang-Layang (Umno) in Simpang Renggam, and Kempas (Umno) in Pulai.

PKR contested Buloh Kasap, Layang-Layang, and Kempas in the 2022 state election.

Besides announcing plans to contest in Johor, Rafizi and Nik Nazmi also said they will be going on a roadshow across Peninsular Malaysia, dubbed “Jelajah Kancil”.

They will start in Danga Bay, Johor, this Saturday, followed by Malacca the next day.

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