Abdullah under siege to quit

Embattled Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi is not expected to last out the year in office after a shock crackdown intended to shore up his political standing boomeranged back.

The spate of ISA arrests gave rivals from within his Umno party further ground to press for his resignation while brightening the chances of opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim.

Experts interviewed by Malaysiakini said they did not discount the possibility that Abdullah could be pressured to step down immediately, but believed it was more likely the 68-year-old career civil servant would push to stay on until party elections in December.

"It appears some people in Umno have made up their minds they are not going to wait, but there is no need for unruly haste. It might be better for the party to wait until December and settle it there and then," said Ramon Navaratnam, chairman of Center for Public Policy Studies.

"Any transition now will disrupt Umno and weaken their defence against Anwar's Pakatan Rakyat," said political analyst Khoo Kay Peng.

"Therefore stepping down for Abdullah and his supporters is not an option. Moreover, Najib is not the clear-cut frontrunner now. There are Tengku Razaleigh (Hamzah) and Muhyiddin (Yassin).

Deputy Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak had on Friday reneged on a power transition pact made with his boss in July, whereby the latter would hand to him both the premiership and Umno presidency in June 2010.

But despite the public backpedaling, Abdullah is believed to still favour Najib as successor and as an ally he can rely on to smoothen the way for his departure.

Najib's move coincided with calls from International Trade and Industry Minister Muhyiddin Yassin to Abdullah to pass on the baton to his deputy before 2010.

Muhyiddin and another party stalwart Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, fondly known as Ku Li, also invited Abdullah's former mentor-turned-foe, Dr Mahathir Mohamad, the influential ex-prime minister, to return to Umno.

These developments - all taking place one after the other within the past one week - fueled fears that the dissenting voices in bitterly-divided Umno were finally gathering together and gaining collective force to show Abdullah the door.

Counter-productive

Political watchers believe it was this fear that pressured Abdullah into showing his hand.

"It was clear that he needed to do something to save his own political career after Mahathir announced his comeback to Umno. Mahathir's support for Ku Li and Muhyiddin's call for early transition are catalysts for his hard crackdown," Khoo said.

"Sin Chew Daily's Tan and DAP's Teresa were detained under ISA to appease those in Umno sympathetic to Ahmad Ismail, whom some call a ‘Malay hero'."

Police late on Friday arrested three civilians - journalist Tan Hoon Cheng, opposition politician Teresa Kok and Internet news portal editor Raja Petra Kamaruddin - under the country's draconian Internal Security Act, which allows for detention without trial.

Insiders say the tough action was also intended to warn Anwar's Pakatan that Abdullah, despite his image of being a ‘Mr Nice Guy', would not hesitate to play hardball should the opposition alliance try to seize power.

However, the crackdown sparked unexpectedly fierce domestic and worldwide condemnation. The United States even summoned Malaysia's envoy in Washington to explain the action.

The fury of the outcry has since pressured Abdullah into releasing Tan, a 33-year old reporter who exposed racist comments made by Umno chieftain Ahmad Ismail against the Chinese community last month.

"All three should be freed immediately. In the first place, why was the journalist who was just doing her job arrested but not Ahmad?" Navaratnam said.

"It is not part of good governance to cling to power and the use of the ISA will undermine the credibility of the leadership. The crackdown has been counter-productive because now the credibility of the government is even more in question," he added.

Umno had suspended Ahmad following the racial comments fiasco, but some party extremists subscribing to the ketuanan Melayu (Malay supremacy) concept believe Abdullah had been too apologetic and should have stood by his race when resolving the incident.

Ahmad was not arrested in the crackdown. Blogger Raja Petra and opposition MP Kok are still in police custody.

Who will succeed Abdullah

Although Najib, the son of the country's second prime minister Abdul Razak, may appear to be the frontrunner in the race to succeed Abdullah, observers believe it is the 61-year old Muhyiddin who will eventually emerge as the kingmaker.

Another Umno stalwart who has announced his interest in the party presidency is Tengku Razaleigh, a 71-year old Kelantan prince and former finance minister.

But to many party members, Tengku Razaleigh's joining in the fray may be a case of ‘a little too little, a little too late'.

The Gua Musang MP has been out of the public eye, losing prominence after a failed challenge for the top post in 1987.

Insiders say that to stand any chance at all now, Tengku Razaleigh would have to woo Muhyiddin over as his number two.

Among the current crop of top Umno leaders, observers say it is vice-president Muhyiddin who now carries the greatest credibility with Umno grassroots. All eyes are now on the former Johor chief minister, who used to be a close ally of opposition supremo Anwar when he was still with Umno.

"It is now very possible for Muhyiddin to consider going for the top post himself. Najib's credibility is wearing very thin, he is seen as part of the old Umno - the part of Umno that needs to be reformed," said a party insider. "Tengku Razaleigh is not impossible but the going will be tough."

"Umno needs someone fresh, someone new to do what Anwar does - provide an alternative vision for Malaysia," said Jacob Ramsay, political analyst for Southeast Asia at Singapore-based Control Risks Group.

Other possibilities that have been bandied about include Foreign Minister Rais Yatim, another party veteran said to be also keen on the top two posts.

But until Muhyiddin makes up his mind, Umno members will have to guess if it will be a Najib-Muhyiddin team, a Tengku Razaleigh-Muhyiddin pairing or even a Muhyiddin-Rais combo that will eventually lead the party out from its current doldrums.

Pakatan gains, Barisan loses

Although many observers believe Abdullah's high-handed and hastily-contrived crackdown was motivated more by a wish to appease his own party, rather than to stop Anwar from seizing power, the round-up has ironically benefited the opposition leader.

Anwar's Pakatan holds 81 out of 222 seats in parliament. He plans to reverse the majority currently held by Abdullah's Barisan Nasional coalition by inviting disgruntled backbenchers to defect to his camp.

"Anwar's chances are tied to the perception and confidence of the people. The people are infuriated by the current action of Umno leaders and the obvious double standards in dispensing justice. Many people cannot understand why the government uses the ISA on the Sin Chew reporter and not Ahmad Ismail," Khoo said.

"Possible defectors who chicken out will face obvious defeat and rejection from the people in the next round of general elections. I think Anwar's chances have brightened up," he added.

Meanwhile, the Pakatan has conceded it is unlikely to form a new government by the previously stated deadline of Sept 16, but is nevertheless confident of succeeding soon.

Analysts said if the Pakatan came into power before Umno elections in December, then Umno - relegated to the status of an opposition party - would be without high-profile cabinet or government posts to offer its leaders.

If that happened, Umno elections - a traditionally intense and much-watched affair - may no longer draw as much attention and competition as before, with some current top leaders possibly even making a beeline to the Pakatan, the experts added.

"Everybody has a life span and when the time comes, everybody must exit gracefully. Umno is no longer a safe port, having been worn out by abuses, corruption and money politics. It's a case of the birds have come to roost, and what you sow may be what you reap," Navaratnam said.

Meanwhile, it is reported that both Abdullah and Najib had a meeting today ahead of the crucial Umno supreme council meeting on Thursday.