news analysis Pollster Merdeka Centre predicted recently that, if a snap election were to be held tomorrow, Barisan Nasional (BN) would regain its two-thirds majority in Parliament.

Not surprisingly, its assertion has led to much discussion about anticipated voting trends .

Each general election (GE) is unique because the context and the players change. However, examining the most recent results can reveal the shaky seats and, in turn, the impact of a swing in votes.

There are now 222 parliamentary seats, meaning that a simple majority is achieved by winning 112 seats.

In the 12th GE, BN obtained 51% of the votes with 140 seats - a drop of 13 percent from 2004 - and Pakatan Rakyat took 48%, or 83 seats (although one has since turned Independent).

To form the federal government in the 13th GE, Pakatan would need a swing of 6% (29 seats) to declare victory with a simple majority.

To rule comfortably, it requires a 10% swing (139 seats), and to obtain a two-thirds majority, it needs a 13% swing (148 seats).

azlan It would be reasonable, therefore, to conclude that the outcome of the next GE will be determined by the swing of 6-10% in votes. (See chart)

This will decide whether BN loses power or if Pakatan will win only 29 seats, thereby suffering a drastic reversal of the political tsunami of 2008.

Political analysts generally agree that Pakatan can expect 5% more votes at best, but only if things go in their favour. But this would only deliver 107 seats, leaving a deficit of five seats toward a simple majority.

BN's task would be much easier - a 5% swing will see the ruling coalition regaining its two-thirds majority, with 176 seats. Indeed, it only needs a 1.2% swing to win another 10 seats and regain control of the Dewan Rakyat.

All this points to 61 marginal seats that could determine which coalition will rule - in these, the majority recorded in the last general election was less than 5%. BN holds 24 of these seats, while Pakatan won 37.

Malaysiakini looks at the shaky seats, based on data compiled by the Socio-economic and Environmental Research Institute based in Penang.

Where danger lies for BN

BN's 24 marginal seats are all in the states that it lost to Pakatan or where PAS has a strong grassroots network - Perak (6), Pahang (3), Kedah, Selangor and Terengganu (2 each) and Perlis (1).

The remainder are in constituencies with a high number of non-Malay or non-Muslim voters - Sarawak (4), Sabah (2), Johor and Malacca (1 each).

Should there be a 5% swing away from BN, Umno would lose 13 seats (from 79 now to 66); MCA would lose six seats (from 15 to 9) and other East Malaysia component parties would lose five seats (from 41 to 36).

BN heavyweights living on the razor's edge include:

  • nazri abdul aziz Minister in the PM's Department Mohd Nazri Abdul Aziz ( Padang Rengas , 54.9% of vote, right )

  • Deputy International Trade Minster Mukhriz Mahathir ( Jerlun , 53%)

  • Rafidah Aziz ( Kuala Kangsar , 53.6%)

  • Deputy Transport Minister Lau Hui Chew ( Sibu , 53.4%)

  • Deputy Public Works Minister Yong Khoon Seng ( Stampin , 51%)

In MCA alone, three ministers and three deputy ministers would be affected:

  • NONE Transport Minister and party president Ong Tee Keat ( Pandan , 53.1%, right )

  • Tourism Minister and vice-president Ng Yen Yen ( Raub , 54.1%)

  • Housing and Local Government Minister Kong Cho Ha ( Lumut , 50.3%)

  • Deputy Finance Minister Chor Chee Heong ( Alor Setar , 50.2%)

  • Deputy Foreign Minister Lee Chee Leong ( Kampar , 53.6%)

  • Deputy Higher Education Minister Hou Kok Chung ( Kluang , 53.6%)

With a 6% swing away from BN, five more seats would fall:

  • Human Resources Minister S Subramaniam ( Segamat , 55.2%)

  • Umno vice-president and Defence Minister Ahmad Zahid Zahidi ( Bagan Datok , 55.7%)

  • Umno treasurer and Finance Minister II Ahmad Husni Mohamad Hanadzlah ( Tambun , 55.3%)

  • Domestic Trade and Consumer Affairs Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob ( Bera , 55.9%)

  • KTMB head and former Works Minister Mohd Zin Mohamed ( Sepang , 55.1%)

  • khairy jamaluddin Umno Youth head Khairy Jamaluddin ( Rembau , 56.1%, right )

  • Minister in the PM's Department Nor Mohammed Yakcop ( Tasek Gelugor , 56.3%)

  • Veteran Umno leader Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah ( Gua Musang , 59.3%)

  • Energy, Green Technology and Water Minister Peter Chin Fah Kui ( Miri , 57.8%)

This would also leave BN with only 83 seats, of which Umno will hold 46 (14 of these from Johor and 13 from Sabah); MCA will have six (four of these from Johor); Gerakan will have two (Gerik and Simpang Renggam); MIC will hold one (Cameron Highlands); and Sabah and Sarawak component parties will contribute 28.

Even in this worst case scenario, though, Umno head Najib Abdul Razak ( Pekan , 78.7%), his deputy Muhyiddin Yassin ( Pagoh , 71.3%), Home Minister Hishammuddin Hussein ( Sembrong , 73.7%) and Health Minister and MCA vice-president Liow Tiong Lai ( Bentong , 66.6%) will retain their seats.

Part 2: Shaky seats on the Pakatan front

azlan

azlan