exclusive Ruling Barisan Nasional coalition leader Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, fondly known as Pak Lah, will not be able to wrest the two states held by rival party PAS in the March 21 elections, said a veteran Umno politician.

"I anticipate and I wish Pak Lah will win big. But having said that, I don't think Pak Lah will be able to recover the two states (Terengganu and Kelantan)," said sacked Umno-controlled New Straits Times editor-in-chief Abdullah Ahmad.

However, he said Pak Lah could not afford to lose Kedah, which PAS has pinned some hope on winning next Sunday.

"I think Pak Lah should win big, except in these two states. Kedah 50-50. I think PAS may win a few more seats or more votes," he told malaysiakini in an exclusive interview.

Abdullah, who was Malaysia's envoy to the United Nations, said Pak Lah's success will be measured in terms of Malays votes.

"The real battle, the real crown jewel, is the Malay votes, which will determine whether Umno has recovered Malay support and PAS goes in retreat in Kedah," he said.

He warned that while PAS may not win Kedah, it could still claim victory by the number of votes bagged by the Muslim-based party.

"You don't want to see an election like (US President George W) Bush - you win the seats but you lose the popular votes," he said.

Maintain 'status quo'

According to Abdullah, the worst Pak Lah can do is to maintain the level of support which Umno received in the 1999 elections, which saw the party losing its Malay support to PAS.

"He must, whatever happens, maintain the status quo and try to reduce PAS' popular votes. If Kedah falls, that means for the first time Umno loses three states to the opposition coalition," he said.

However, he believed Pak Lah should be able to perform better than former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad if he "played his cards well".

"But the test of the pudding is in the eating. The going is good for him. (Jailed ex-deputy premier) Anwar (Ibrahim) is still there. Don't underestimate it. Malays are emotional people, they can easily whip up their emotions. On paper, Pak Lah can do better than 1999."

Abdullah believed that Umno has added advantage in Kedah this time around because of the redrawing of the electoral boundaries by the Election Commission (EC).

"But the movement of 2,000 Chinese to Yan (now renamed Jerai parliamentary seat), 2,000 Chinese to Sik, is a short-term measure. You can only do it once every 10 years," he added.

In the recent redelineation exercise, the EC has moved more Chinese voters into the marginal seat won by PAS in Kedah, making it difficult for the Islamic party to retain them.

Abdullah also lamented that none in the current crop of Umno leaders in Kedah is a potential national leader.

"After producing two prime ministers, and one powerful finance minister, Kedah is not half of what Selangor is... yet the biggest Malay state is Kedah," said Abdullah.

"Kelantan and Terengganu have the highest percentage of Malays. But in term of numbers, Kedah has more Malays than any other states, except Wilayah Persekutuan (Kuala Lumpur)."

Sacked by Pak Lah

Abdullah, a powerful aide to the country's second prime minister Abdul Razak Hussein, was named a deputy minister in the Prime Minister's Department in 1974.

But his political career came crashing down two years later when he was detained under the Internal Security Act following a leadership struggle within Umno.

Abdullah was released in 1981 by Dr Mahathir Mohamad two weeks after he succeeded Hussein Onn as prime minister.

In 1996, Mahathir tapped Abdullah for the job as the country's special envoy to the United Nations in New York.

But four years later, he was brought back to take the helm in NST , a giant newspaper group which was facing a fall in circulation.

He was sacked from his NST editor-in-chief post by Pak Lah last November when he wrote an article on terrorism which drew the ire from the Saudi government.

However, Abdullah told malaysiakini that his open backing for the then Umno vice-president Najib Abdul Razak - son of former PM Abdul Razak - to be picked as deputy prime minister was among the reasons he was axed.

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