Having triggered the Kajang by-election through the resignation of incumbent Lee Chin Cheh, the likelihood of a low voter turnout tomorrow is now plaguing the PKR camp.

"We are cautiously optimistic that people will come back... Turnout is crucial and I urge everyone to come back home to vote. If you love Kajang, come back and make a decision," PKR's Bayan Baru MP Sim Tze Tsin said in an impassioned appeal.

PKR's fear of a low turnout is driven by the fact that the Kajang by-election has not panned out to be the "game-changer" the party had hoped it to be.

Initially envisioned to send PKR de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim into the Selangor assembly, the by-election would now not have any tangible impact on the state's political landscape.

If PKR candidate Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail wins, as pundits expect her to, the Selangor legislative assembly remains at status quo.

If the unlikely happens and underdog Chew Mei Fun takes the seat, one more opposition member among Pakatan Rakyat’s super majority would hardly rock the boat.

So if you are one of the 2,000-odd voters, or 7 percent of Kajang's 39,000 plus voters, who no longer reside in the constituency, why should you bother to vote?

This is the sentiment MCA is banking on. A lower turnout compared to the last general election’s 87.9 percent would translate into a blow for PKR.

"We believe the turnout rate will be lower this time, as the feedback shows that many voters are frustrated with the engineered by-election," a MCA campaigner, who requested anonymity, told Malaysiakini .

"And if this (low turnout) happens, BN is definitely the biggest beneficiary," he said.

Malay voters hold the key

The experience of recent by-elections, however, show that turnout is unlikely to dip much compared to the general election.

Universiti Malaya Center for Democracy and Elections (Umcedel)'s Redzuan Othman said that in both the Sungai Limau and Kuala Besut by-elections, turnout was almost at par with the general election before that.

"Polling day in those by-elections were on a working day and people still came back, some from Kuala Lumpur.

"Kajang's polling day is on a Sunday and most voters who live and work outside of Kajang still reside within the Klang Valley.

"Unless there is a big flood or some sort of natural disaster, we estimate that turnout would be around 82 percent," he said.

If turnout is expected to be the same, would the largely humdrum turnout and campaign result in the same results – a majority of about 7,000 for PKR?

The answer remains with the Malay voters, who in 2013, were almost split down the middle between PKR and BN.

Excluding early and postal voters, PKR lost only four of the 18 voting districts contested --all Malay areas - and even then, not by a landslide. On the contrary, more than 80 percent in Chinese-majority areas backed PKR.

Most voters approached by Malaysiakini in these Chinese-majority areas remain PKR supporters, with MCA's attacks on local council and state government issues not gaining traction.

"It doesn't matter if the drains are clogged, I'm looking at the bigger picture," said one voter – his sentiments, echoed by many, indicating that there would be no swing in PKR's strongholds in Kajang.

MCA, which devoted all its energy to these areas, has depended solely on its partner Umno to win over the Malay votes or at the very least consolidate existing supporters.

However, Umno's almost listless campaign – no goodies, no fiery talks, largely empty operations centres and hardly any help from government agencies – puts to doubt if any swing could be generated from Malay-majority areas.

PKR claims it has raised Malay votes from 37 percent to 45 percent as at Monday, but a check in Sungai Kantan found the area awash with BN flags.

Banners around a mosque and surau there read: "Worshipers at this mosque are supporters of BN."

Shift due to candidacy

Umcedel's Redzuan said the centre's researchers on the ground, however, believe that there could be a small shift to PKR among the voters due to candidacy.

"This is the reality in Malaysia. When we look at the figures of previous elections, the race of the candidates plays a role. We must remember that in 2013, both BN and PKR candidates were Chinese," he said.

Notably, Berjasa, an outlier party who had campaigned on the platform of vote Muslims first, garnered an impressive 1,014 votes in 2013.

The last minute swap of candidates from Anwar to Wan Azizah also put a damper on the all-out attacks expected from Umno, while eleventh hour leaflet bombing personally attacking Wan Azizah is "counter productive".

"Our previous surveys in similar areas showed that less than 20 percent of people believed the sex videos allegedly of Anwar and (PAS secretary general) Mustafa Ali.

"Plus in Kajang, 50 percent of voters polled said they did not support using the 'Allah' issue in the campaign. It shows the type of community one is dealing with," he said.

In fact, he said, the poison pen letters against Wan Azizah making its way into mosques would push fence sitters away from BN.

If PKR's claim on Malay votes pan out, Redzuan said, Umcedel's simulations show that the party could raise its takings by up to 4,000 votes or more.

However, this is remarkably divergent to UCSI University's survey last week which showed that PKR could suffer a blow to its majority by about 2,000 votes due to a decline in Malay support. The reason for this is not captured by the survey.

Focus is on majority

For MCA, winning is less of an objective than raising Chinese support to 30 percent to prove its relevance and that it is worthy of a spot in cabinet.

"We know it clearly, we are not winning this seat, but we take this as a starting point for MCA's transformation.

"The party's morale has never been in such a good level before, that's what we aim for," the MCA campaigner said.

In fact, BN candidate Chew Mei Fun, who is also MCA vice president, reportedly said the party wanted to gain at least 25 percent of Chinese votes in Kajang, a higher rate compared to the 18 percent in May 5 last year.

For PKR, it is about winning big. Indeed, PKR was the one who forced the by-election.

"Kajang represents the whole of Malaysia sending a clear referendum on extremism, abuse of power and the political persecution of Anwar and (DAP chairperson) Karpal Singh," PKR campaigner and Alor Setar MP Gooi Hsien Loong said.

With this at stake, a winning majority of anything short of 7,000 votes for PKR would make the Kajang Move a failure and subject it to ridicule.

Furthermore, with attention focused on the disappearance of MH370, the Kajang by-election has been reduced to a small blip on the radar screen.