Kadir: Fear is Umno's last weapon as rival advances
A veteran newsman has pointed out that fear factor is Umno's last remaining weapon to keep the Malays on its side.
A veteran newsman has pointed out that fear factor is Umno's last remaining weapon to keep the Malays on its side.
According to A Kadir Jasin, fear of the Chinese was among the key reasons behind the Malays returning to Umno’s fold in the last general election.
"Images of tens of thousands jubilant Chinese and Indian supporters of the opposition taking over towns in Johor during election rallies struck fear among the Malays and they rallied behind Umno," he said.
He added that the bumiputeras, in particular the pro-BN Malays, were afraid if the Chinese dominated the government in addition to the economy, they would lose their rights and privileges
However, the former New Straits Times Group editor-in-chief said if Pakatan Rakyat could convince the Malays that it would be fair to them, BN would be in deeper trouble.
"The situation in the Pakatan-ruled Selangor and Penang is a fair indicator. Was there a Malay revolt in these states since Pakatan gained power in 2008?
"Except for the BN-linked Malay business community, the rest of the Malays appear to have accepted Pakatan. In Penang, where DAP leads, the remaining holdouts are not Malays but Indian Muslims.
"The latter are more strident in their criticisms of the state government because they are largely traders. They are directly affected by policies and programmes of the state government," he added.
Kadir argued that even BN state assemblypersons are lacklustre in their efforts to confront Pakatan in the state assembly.
Unless they exhibited a more spirited challenge, he warned that they risked being seen as a weak and ineffectual opposition.
Convincing the Malays is vital
Should Pakatan be able to convince the Malays, the veteran newsman said the opposition bloc would be able to capture Putrajaya.
"Pacifying and allaying the fears of Malays are a must because they are the majority and control key elements of the government – civil service, police and military. No government can change these overnight.
"Of cause the easiest way to be popular with the people is for the Pakatan to blame its predecessor i.e the BN government for the hardship they suffer. It would probably do what it has all along been demanding – setting up a royal commission of inquiry - to investigate the former BN government.
"There would be other quick fixes like reducing the price of petroleum products or, at least, halting its increases, applying screws on profiteering and increasing salaries of the civil servants and allowance of quasi government officers like mosque officials - as was done by DAP in Penang in 2008.
"This could be achieved by reducing wasteful expenditures, doing away with extravagance and reducing cost of government procurement through open tender," he added.
Kadir also claimed that the experience with BR1M and election goodies revealed that poor Malays and bumiputeras are easily pacified, and Pakatan governments of Selangor and Penang have emulated this.
Vengeance would be foolish
However, he warned that it would be "foolish and dangerous" for Pakatan to dismantle the existing policies and programmes should it come into power.
"So the core policies and programmes pertaining to the economy and commerce are likely to remain, minus such hypes as transformation and high-income economy.
"The new government would risk too much if it abandons the existing economic framework altogether although admittedly it has its own sets of economic advisers if it wants to chart a totally new direction. Some of their advisers were from the Umno-BN network," he added.
he next task, he said, would be for Pakatan to convince the private sector.
"The businessmen, including those who gain massively from the Ummo-BN government, would shift their loyalty if they are fairly treated.
"They would rally around the new government for safety and survival, and may even be willing to make concessions and re-negotiate contracts obtained from the former BN government.
"This should not be a huge problem because many tycoons and big time businessmen have already been befriending and cultivating the Pakatan parties since the 2008 GE," he added.
On the same, he predicted a bleak scenario should Pakatan decide to be vengeful after seizing control of the administrative capital.
"It risks angering the Malays and losing their support. And this cannot be good as the Malays form the majority and they control the key elements of the government," he added.
The biggest challenge to Pakatan, according to Kadir, would be keeping the peace among its ideologically incompatible members.
"The recent Selangor crisis exposed the vulnerability of Pakatan to inter- and intra-party squabbles. PAS lost Kedah in the last GE due largely to factional rivalries," he said.
In conclusion, Kadir said unless BN underwent a credible transformation and Umno is back in favour with the Malays, in particular the younger generation, Pakatan stood a fair chance of conquering Putrajaya in the next polls.
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