Can DAP’s Kerk hold Ayer Keroh as 'Malay unity' faces Gerakan test?

The battle for Ayer Keroh, a traditional DAP stronghold, will be an important test as Malacca voters head to the polls on Nov 14. The question is whether Malay voters, particularly Umno and PAS supporters, are prepared to vote for Gerakan.

For Gerakan, which has languished in the political wilderness for years, wresting the seat from DAP after 18 years would be a major coup. It would give the party a much-needed victory against detractors who have long written it off as a spent force in Malaysian politics.

Although Ayer Keroh is considered a DAP citadel, incumbent Kerk Chee Yee faces a potentially difficult fight. Yet, the crowded contest could also offer him an unexpected lifeline.

Before the dissolution of the state legislative assembly, Pakatan Harapan held just five seats in Malacca – four through DAP and one through Amanah.

With the Umno-PAS alliance emerging as a formidable electoral challenge, three constituencies have become critical battlegrounds: Amanah's Bukit Katil and DAP's Ayer Keroh and Kesidang. These are seats Harapan will be desperate to defend.

The stakes are particularly high given Ayer Keroh's voter demographics. Based on 2022 general election figures, Chinese voters make up 47.6 percent of the electorate, Malays 42.4 percent, and Indians 8.3 percent.

In the previous three-cornered contest, the combined BN and Perikatan Nasional votes were insufficient to unseat Kerk.

But the political landscape has since shifted. Recent election results in Johor and Negeri Sembilan have demonstrated how Umno-PAS cooperation can produce a "one plus one is greater than two" effect, with both parties benefiting from working together.

If the partnership succeeds in consolidating Malay support while Chinese voter turnout dips, Harapan could find itself squeezed from both sides.

Bersama's entry adds another layer of uncertainty.

Kerk himself has acknowledged that Ayer Keroh is a high-risk constituency, underlining the challenge of defending one of DAP's traditional strongholds.

"Right now, looking at the data, we are trailing by 2,000 votes in Ayer Keroh.

"And this hasn't factored in whether there are other political parties - including Bersama, which announced it will contest in Ayer Keroh," said Kerk, son of the late Kerk Kim Hock, DAP's fourth secretary-general.

MCA's unfinished business

However, this assessment hinges on one crucial assumption: that Malay voters will rally behind PN's candidate. The latest candidate announcements have complicated that equation.

Ayer Keroh was an MCA stronghold for three consecutive terms before DAP wrested it in 2008, when Khoo Poay Tiong was elected. A decade later, Khoo handed over the baton to Kerk, who retained the seat in 2021.

Reclaiming Ayer Keroh has remained unfinished business for MCA.

The party had hoped the Umno-PAS partnership would provide the momentum to wrest the constituency from DAP. But when BN unveiled its candidates on Oct 24, Ayer Keroh was conspicuously absent.

In a surprising turn, MCA found itself competing with its own coalition partners for the right to contest a seat it had hoped to reclaim. After protesting, the party eventually accepted the arrangement, with Ayer Keroh allocated to PN.

Can Gerakan win Malay voters?

That raised another question: who would PN field?

Given the emphasis on consolidating Malay support, speculation centred on whether it would nominate a Malay candidate from PAS or Wawasan Negara.

PN, however, had another surprise up its sleeve. It named Malacca Gerakan chairperson Gan Peng Lam, who also contested Ayer Keroh in the previous election.

In that election, Gan polled 2,479 votes, or about 16 percent, against Kerk's 9,459, nearly 60 percent.

On those figures alone, Gan faces a formidable challenge.

But this time, he is banking on a different equation. Beyond Gerakan's traditional support base and PN voters, he will also be looking to attract voters left without a BN candidate after the coalition decided to sit out the contest.

The stakes are particularly high for Gerakan, which currently holds just one state assembly seat and no parliamentary seats. Winning Ayer Keroh would double its state representation, adding to its rare electoral success in Kulim, Kedah, in 2023.

But will BN's votes actually transfer to Gan? Will Umno supporters back a Gerakan candidate in the name of "Malay unity"? And will MCA's grassroots be willing to campaign for the party that has effectively denied it a chance to contest the seat?

The arithmetic is further complicated by PAS supporters, who may not necessarily be inclined to vote for a Gerakan candidate either.

Gan also faces a more fundamental challenge. If some Malay voters are reluctant to support a non-Malay candidate, where will their votes go?

Bersatu's entry complicates the equation

The third twist, in the form of Bersatu, may offer an answer.

On the night of Oct 29, Bersatu announced it would contest eight seats, four overlapping with Harapan constituencies. One is Ayer Keroh, where it is fielding Hamnaim Mohamad.

This does not mean Malay voters will necessarily vote along ethnic lines. But Bersatu's entry gives those uncomfortable with voting for Gerakan another option, adding yet another variable to an already crowded contest.

Perhaps the most intriguing twist, however, lies beyond Malacca.

Just hours before Bersatu announced its candidates, six MPs from the party aligned with president Muhyiddin Yassin signed a confidence and supply agreement (CSA), pledging support for Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's government and the 2027 Budget.

While extending a lifeline to Harapan in Putrajaya, Bersatu is preparing to challenge it at the state level. It is a curious political arrangement.

For Kerk, however, this may not necessarily be bad news.

If Malay voters aligned with Umno-PAS are unwilling to back Gerakan and instead turn to Bersatu, the Malay support BN and PN hope to consolidate could end up divided, upsetting their electoral calculations.

But the equation cuts both ways. Bersatu could also attract disillusioned Harapan supporters looking for an alternative.

The question, therefore, is not simply whether Bersatu will split the Malay vote, but which side stands to lose more. At the very least, its entry challenges the assumption that Malay votes will naturally gravitate towards Gan.

That said, another candidate on the ballot does not automatically translate into a substantial following. Bersatu's performance in the Johor and Negeri Sembilan state elections was lacklustre, raising questions about its ability to make significant inroads in Malacca.

Mixed views on Kerk's performance

Earlier this week, Malaysiakini visited Ayer Keroh to speak to residents about the impending contest. One conversation offered an interesting glimpse into the electoral mood.

Yazid Haris, a 64-year-old vendor and voter, had positive things to say about Kerk's performance, describing him as a good assemblyperson.

But when asked whom he would vote for this time, Yazid replied: "BN."

The catch? BN is not contesting Ayer Keroh.

To be fair, PN had yet to announce its candidate when we spoke to Yazid. It would therefore be premature to assume his preference for BN would automatically translate into support for Gerakan.

Still, his response highlights an important distinction: appreciating an incumbent's performance does not necessarily mean voting for him.

With BN not fielding a candidate there, the question is how Malay voters like Yazid will respond.

Malaysiakini also spoke to dozens of residents from different racial backgrounds to gauge Kerk's standing among his constituents.

The responses were mixed. Some recognised him or recalled seeing him around the neighbourhood, describing him as an active assemblyperson who regularly visits the community and lends a helping hand.

Others were more measured, rating his performance as satisfactory, while a few complained that issues brought to his attention remained unresolved.

Despite these differing assessments, most Chinese voters interviewed said they would continue supporting DAP, primarily to keep PAS out of the state assembly.

One particularly interesting encounter was with Nur Suhana, an 18-year-old student who initially struggled to recall Kerk's name. However, she remembered seeing him distributing aid and engaging with young people, describing him as approachable.

As a first-time voter, Suhana has yet to decide whom to support.

These observations are based on a limited number of interviews and should not be taken as representative of the constituency as a whole.

Could Bersama eat into DAP's support?

Kerk faces another potential complication. Some voters disillusioned with Harapan and the federal government are considering backing Bersama, which is fielding Chinese Muslim lawyer Muhaimin Lau Abdullah.

In an interview with Malaysiakini, Muhaimin said his campaign would focus on the economy, youth incomes, and the need for stronger checks and balances against the government.

Asked whether Bersama's presence could eat into DAP's support, he stopped short of a direct answer. Instead, he pointed to the Negeri Sembilan polls, arguing that Harapan had suffered losses even without Bersama in the picture.

Malaysiakini's street interviews also picked up a small but notable group of voters expressing support for Bersama, with some describing the party as an agent of change.

But the implications for Kerk will depend largely on where these votes come from.

If Bersama attracts former Harapan supporters, it could chip away at the very votes Kerk needs to retain Ayer Keroh. If its support comes instead from the opposition camp, the electoral equation would look quite different.

There is also a third possibility: Bersama could persuade some voters who had intended to sit out the election to turn up because they now have another option.

Ultimately, Ayer Keroh is more than a fight for one state seat. For DAP, it is about defending an 18-year stronghold. For Gerakan, it is a chance to reclaim political relevance. For Bersatu and Bersama, it is an opportunity to establish themselves as viable alternatives.

And for the Umno-PAS partnership, the contest will test whether its combined political clout can translate into votes, regardless of who flies the flag.

Reporting by Lee Way Loon, Khoo Shi Yuan, and Tan Fu Qi.

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