Which is Khairy Jamaluddin's dream post - Umno Youth chief or party vice-president? This is a hot topic of debate among those closely watching every move of the son-in-law of party president and premier Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

The rumour mills are churning out speculation about Khairy's strategy to seize a vice-president's post at next year's party elections, even if this means zipping up the ladder and skipping a few rungs to break with tradition.

The picture painted of KJ, as he is widely known, is of a man with high political ambitions and little patience - he wants to be the prime minister of Malaysia before he hits 40. He is now 29.

Political observers based their rationalisation mainly on the alleged rivalry between the camps of Abdullah (Pak Lah) and his deputy Najib Abdul Razak.

Should Najib replace Pak Lah, KJ's chances of continuing his ascendancy in Umno would be curbed as Najib may well appoint another leader as his deputy.

KJ will therefore have to sit close to Najib even while Pak Lah is in power, in order to be picked as the new president's right-hand man.

If KJ is only Umno Youth chief at that time, his place in the leadership will be limited to this post and he could well be discarded later.

Observers argued that KJ will not be 'killed off' by Najib, but by those around him who do not want their positions shaken.

Meteoric rise

KJ's rise in Umno has come easily so far because he is the prime minister's son-in-law. Many have freely given way to him, so long as he is willing to repay the favour.

For example, Norza Zakaria allowed KJ to win Youth deputy chief's post uncontested in 2004. KJ has also been 'gifted' the Rembau Youth chief's post without having to campaign and contest.

At this point, all and sundry appear willing to roll over for KJ, but things will change when Pak Lah steps down. No one knows how long the fifth Malaysian premier will last. And since anything can happen at any time, KJ cannot afford to lose any time.

If KJ is not vice-president when Pak Lah steps down as prime minister, the deputy's post will almost certainly fall into the hands of one of the three elected vice-presidents. Who? Perhaps Muhyiddin Yassin, Ali Rustam, Hishammuddin Hussein or Adnan Yaakob.

Umno tradition dictates that anyone holding the position of vice-president is eligible to be appointed as deputy prime minister, although this is not a written rule.

As such, KJ needs to leap into the position if he wants to fulfill his dreams. It will not be an easy task, however, given that Hishammuddin has pledged to vacate the Youth chief's post next year in order to run for vice-president.

High risks

Is KJ willing to lose the opportunity of leading Umno Youth by jumping into the ring with Hishammudin for the vice-presidency?

Is it too high a risk for two Youth leaders to vie for the same post? Would each be risking his political career?

One may win to the detriment of the other, or both may win or lose. This is likely to be a fight to the death.

Some supporters of both leaders believe it would be smarter if only one contests as vice-president because he would stand a better chance of winning.

"Youth delegates' votes will go fully towards Hishammuddin or KJ, but if both contest, they will be divided," said a former Umno Youth exco member.

Could a compromise be worked out between KJ and Hishammuddin? Could the latter defend his post and allow KJ to jump over him to contest the vice-presidency?

That would beg other questions. Doesn't Hishammuddin have hopes of going up in the leadership? How long more will he be content to remain in the fortress of the Youth wing?

Popularity stakes

Umno members said efforts are underway to seek out a compromise between the two. Although they are seen as complementing the other as Youth leaders, there still exists a personal race between them to gather more influence and popularity.

KJ has been prominent in Umno Youth activities, going to universities, primary schools, remote villages and visiting sites affected by the recent floods in Shah Alam.

He has also been promoting himself through his football reality show MyTeam. On a more 'intellectual' level, he was involved in Halal Journal programmes that have been promoted and aired on television.

One Selangor Umno Youth head said KJ's influence has spread into the political, social and media domains, apart from the corporate sector.

"It would be no stretch of the imagination to say that KJ's popularity is exceeding that of Hishammuddin. I'm willing to bet that if KJ challenges Hishammuddin as Youth chief now, he will win hands down," he contended.

According to the division leader, KJ no longer wants to be Youth chief. He is said to be pressuring Hishammuddin to take back his pledge made at the 2004 Umno general assembly.

KJ wants Hishammuddin to defend his post and allow him to contest the vice-presidency in order to improve his chances of filling the post vacated last year by Mohd Isa Samad.

His confidence is boosted by the help and support he will receive from Pak Lah, his own people in the Youth wing, and from remaining supporters of former deputy president Anwar Ibrahim.

KJ"s supporters believe that leaders outside Umno Youth may give away if he offers himself as vice-president.

They see Adnan Yaakob, Shahrir Abdul Samad and Mustapha Mohamad as the sacrificial lambs because they are said to be indebted to Pak Lah for reviving their political career.

Part 2 will appear tomorrow