COMMENT | Political stability after GE15? Get real, people!

COMMENT | One thing that Umno has been drumming in people’s minds is that the government needs to expedite the 15th general election (GE15) as the current “hybrid government” was unstable.

Well, we can all agree that post-Sheraton Move, almost everything in the country has become unstable, but if one thinks GE15 will bring political stability to Malaysia, one must be naïve indeed.

For starters, let’s picture a scenario where Umno-BN wins with a simple majority to form the government.

If that happens, Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamid would claim the premiership for himself.

So what if they had decided on Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob as their poster boy? It doesn’t really matter when it comes to politics.

Since Merdeka until the fall of BN in 2018, it is the Umno president who sat on the prime minister’s chair. Hence, speaking from tradition, Zahid has every right to become the next prime minister if Umno wins GE15.

This is where the instability will come in. Having tasted power and adulation, one would be naïve to think Ismail Sabri will take this lying down.

While he may appear oblivious to things at most times, one can safely say that Ismail Sabri is no pushover and would not back down from a fight when it is needed.

Bear in mind, he has taken this one year plus to shore up support, not only within Umno but also outside of BN. The two will definitely clash for the top job, and the loser is unlikely to back down and wait another day to take on the new prime minister.

Zahid vs Ismail Sabri vs Najib

Assuming Zahid manages to “vanquish” Ismail Sabri, he would be facing another problem from Umno as well – the cult of Bossku.

Though both appear to be on the same page since 2018, former prime minister Najib Abdul Razak’s supporters would definitely pressure Zahid to get the Pekan MP pardoned.

With Najib free, he could make another move for the premiership – and this would anger Zahid and cause another level of political instability in the country.

On the flip side, even if Ismail Sabri is retained as prime minister after defeating Zahid, the latter will join forces with Najib to undermine the former out of spite.

And there goes Malaysia’s political stability.

Now, let’s check out another scenario in which Pakatan Harapan emerges victorious and PKR president Anwar Ibrahim becomes the prime minister.

Again, as we have seen post-2018, both Umno and PAS would agitate the crowd using the “the non-Muslims have taken over the country” narrative again.

They may exploit the race and religion rhetoric to the hilt like what had happened during former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s second stint as premier. But this time, the agitation may be louder.

While both Umno and PAS were careful with the nonagenarian given his past-autocratic tendencies, they may not be that measured with Anwar given that he has always been painted as a “traitor to the nation and Malays” since his ouster from Umno in 1998.

Let Umno be the opposition

The point I’m trying to drive here is – in both scenarios – it would be Umno-BN which would be causing the instability like what has happened since the Sheraton Move.

So what can we do to ensure we have a stable government for some time? In my view, the answer is to send Umno-BN to the opposition aisle for at least two parliamentary terms.

Yes, they will join forces with PAS to cause problems for the new government but this is where the latter must focus on reforms and keep close communication with the public on what is being done and why it is being done.

The new government must then show no mercy to those who play the race and religion card. I think the public has had enough of such nonsense and they need leaders who can address pressing matters such as the rising cost of living, poverty, unemployment, and others.

Besides, the general public is quite clear by now that much of Umno and PAS’ past rhetoric was nothing but a political stunt with little regard for the people’s real struggles.

If my projection is right, Umno will start reinventing and rejuvenating itself within 10 years, with good junior leaders finally mustering the courage to get rid of their tainted superiors.

How can we know whether good leaders have taken over Umno in the future? For starters, they will start working as an effective opposition in Parliament.

Simply put, if Umno (as an opposition) manages to keep the government of the day on their toes over day-to-day issues, we can positively say that they have “earned the people’s trust” to take over Putrajaya again.

The sad thing about Umno is that the party could have reformed itself by now if not for Bersatu’s treachery towards Harapan, which brought the nationalist party back to power prematurely.

So, it’s time for the people to give Umno-BN another shot at redeeming themselves. Who knows, we may have another Tunku Abdul Rahman or Onn Jaafar helming the party in the near future.

G VINOD is a member of the Malaysiakini team.

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