COMMENT | The tide is turning, Harapan can win outright

Evolution

Out of the dusk a shadow,

Then, a spark;

Out of the cloud a silence,

Then, a lark;

Out of the heart a rapture,

Then, a pain;

Out of the dead, cold ashes,

Life again.

- John Banister Tabb (1845-1909)

COMMENT | Pakatan Harapan’s loss of power after upsetting Umno/BN’s 61-year reign in 2018 has resulted in a dangerous despair leading to apathy at GE15, even among those who voted for them previously. But there is more than a glimmer of hope that things have turned around.

Even so, as the race rushes to the finish line this Saturday, the last two days will be crucial to see if the advantage can be pushed through for a decisive victory. This will require voters to come out in droves to deliver their verdict.

The underlying logic is this. A cascading and confluence of certain events has led to an erosion of Malay support for Umno/BN in favour of Harapan and PN, the Bersatu-PAS alliance.

And given the continuing strong support for Harapan among non-Malays and the three-way split of Malay votes between Harapan, Umno and PN, that will be enough to tip the balance in favour of Harapan in most areas. It may be likely to give Harapan even a clear simple majority without the need for alliances.

The main reason for Umno’s decline is that its president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s gamble to pull the trigger and hold elections in the middle of the monsoons, when floods are very likely, has failed. The Umno machinery is simply unable to provide a good reason. People are tired of being victimised for the personal gain of politicians.

Zahid’s several references to the king deciding who becomes PM has not helped and strengthened the belief that he would become PM if Umno/BN had a large number of seats, an unacceptable situation to many who don’t want a PM with the albatross of corruption hanging heavily around his neck.

A hurried denial by top Umno/BN leaders that caretaker PM Ismail Sabri Yaakob will still be retained felt more like the rearguard action of a retreating army than an offensive to regain the support of the people.

While Umno floundered, largely because of Zahid’s desperation to stay relevant and in power, its slack was picked up by Harapan and PN, boosting the chances of both coalitions at the polls. This has put Harapan in a stronger position than earlier thought.

Survey details

Are there numbers to back this? Yes, there is. There are two respected public survey firms in Malaysia. The first is Ibrahim Suffian’s Merdeka Center. The other is PKR deputy president Rafizi Ramli’s Invoke, which incidentally was the only survey firm to predict a Harapan victory at GE14 in 2018.

Both have predicted that Harapan would win over 90 seats at GE15 but these are based on surveys which were done earlier. It is likely that as Umno/BN floats rudderless without an election strategy and gains made by Harapan and PN, the situation has shifted further.

While Invoke’s survey details are not public, the one by Merdeka Center has been circulating on social media. Some extracts from the survey (see table below) will serve to illustrate our points. The survey was conducted Nov 3-11, which means things could have changed - and if they have, the shift is likely to be negative for Umno/BN and positive for Harapan.

The overall numbers are rather interesting. Merdeka Center is projecting a total of 99 seats for Harapan, 48 seats for PN and just 32 seats for BN/Umno. Even if BN and PN combined, which is likely, the total number of seats is just 80 seats, 19 seats less than that of Harapan’s. The survey error is estimated at plus or minus 3 percent.

The breakdown of seats allocated in terms of safe, marginal and “too close to call” are also given. There are 32 seats which are too close to call and 15 of these were allocated to Harapan in the final estimate.

What is shocking is that BN has just eight safe seats. PN has 31 and Harapan 69. However, if there is a shift in Malay voter sentiment in favour of Harapan, then more seats are likely to go to Harapan.

This argument is reinforced by Merdeka Center’s estimated popular vote (see table below), with Harapan garnering nearly 44 percent, more than any other party by far with a 15 percentage point lead. But note that the total of PN and BN comes up to 54.6 percent.

But because BN and PN are contesting against each other everywhere, Harapan has a decisive advantage in almost all seats except those with a very high percentage of Malays - the Malay heartland states of Terengganu and Kelantan where PAS reigns supreme and therefore has a clear advantage in those areas.

Admittedly BN and PN have majority Malay support but that is not enough to garner them victory because of the split in Malay votes.

If a seat has the exact demographics as the one in the above table and the same voting percentages of support, then Harapan will easily win this seat by some 15 percentage points because the popular votes are divided between PN and BN, even though their combined vote is more than that of Harapan.

The point to note is that with the current average demographic and the current support levels, it appears likely Harapan can win more seats than predicted by the Merdeka Center survey. Calculations indicate that it is possible for Harapan to win even when seats are 70 percent Malay, under the current split of Malay votes.

The situation is likely to improve further if Harapan makes greater inroads for Malay support and an even larger number of non-Malays support it in the last few days to polls, perhaps enough to give it a simple majority and beyond.

Under the current over-conservative scenario from Harapan’s perspective, Merdeka Center’s forecast of 99 seats for Harapan is just 13 seats short of majority, not impossible for Harapan to bridge the difference.

The message is clear - those who are still sitting on the fence and refuse to vote in despair of a Harapan loss should change their positions and go out there and vote. Simply make your voice heard, and that may well be enough for progressive change.

Know who your enemy is. It is not the other race and religion but the politicians who use race and religion to divide you so that they can continue to rule. Refuse to be baited and go out there and vote for the better team.

And then we can resume the change that we collectively started, but this time more fairly and with real thought and consideration for all of us who call this country our home.

Let’s say “enough!” to the continued looting, rape, pillage and plunder of our nation and use our collective voice for change. Let’s not be silenced anymore.

Hope springs eternal. Let’s keep it alive - for always.

P GUNASEGARAM, a former editor at online and print news publications, and head of equity research, is an independent writer and analyst.

The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of Malaysiakini.

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