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Yesterday (Jan 20, 2017 - US Eastern Standard Time), was doomsday for the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA). It is dead or ‘Si’ - in Mandarin. The new administration announced the US withdrawal. Wait a second, can I say it is dead or rest in peace (RIP) since it did not see the light of day. If I am not mistaken, Malaysia was the first country to ratify it.

Under the agreement’s rules, without US participation, it is as good as a ‘no-go’ agreement. Donnie (Donald Trump) helped to ring the death knell.

I thank God, and Donnie too, since our very own Institute of Strategic and International Studies (Isis) study concludes that Malaysia’s participation in the TPPA is in its national interest, the opposite also holds true. PricewaterhouseCooper’s (very restrictive) study itself does not make strategic recommendations.

There were also qualifications made like there could be an overestimation of potential gains, increase in import growth is projected to outpace increase in export growth and the trade surplus in 2027 will be smaller compared to the baseline scenario.

The US Trade Representative’s website still highlights the TPPA will help increase Made-in-America exports, grow the American economy, support well-paying American jobs, and strengthen the American middle class. However, significant growth gains have been refuted by US government economists from the Department of Agriculture and International Trade Commission.

Its processes are opaque. Public trust and hopes have declined due to their onerous provisions and likely consequences. How do strengthening intellectual rights or investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) enhance international trade and economic growth?

Surprisingly, some trade experts or even politicians, as late as last week, were still expecting that the TPPA can be brought back to the negotiation table. Our own minister said, “Malaysia envisaged a negative impact if the TPPA initiative was not implemented, as research had indicated it would help enhance the Gross Domestic Product and earnings as well as job opportunities”.

When one country is said to benefit most from a pact, it also stands to lose the most from its demise. But Vietnam, a member touted as TPPA’s largest beneficiary, says the agreement was no longer an issue of major concern.

A scholar at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology said, “Do not expect any dramatic economic consequences from TPPA’s demise. Trade is already open and flowing at robust levels amongst many TPPA partners and that will continue”. Current global trade liberalisation trend itself is irresistible.

Therefore, making a bogey of gloom, with falling foreign investments, loss in export market and lower GDP, is rather unnecessary.

There are other trade opportunities available like the Regional Cooperation Economic Partnership (RCEP), includes the 10 Asean members plus China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand. While the TPPA has more stringent requirements and require you to up your speed or fly, RCEP allows less developed members more time to comply. It sounds very Asian-like.

If adopted, RCEP would be the largest free trade bloc in the world. And members are logistically close and more culturally connected.

Also, do we have a Free Trade Agreement with China? Did we not bring back deals amounting to RM144 billion from China a couple months ago? Details on these deals is another subject matter.

What next?

I must congratulate our negotiating team for all their hard work.

1. The team should now share their experiences and expertise with other government agencies and also with other Malaysians on how to negotiate a ‘gold-plated’ twenty-first century agreement

2. Malaysians then should use the new-found knowledge to be better negotiators for the future

3. Our RCEP negotiators should have a head start

4. We must get used to a declining US influence after trying to be a global leader for the last seven decades - it is time for US to cede leadership in the region to China and drop the ‘pivot’ to Asia plan

5. Did we not favour China on many things lately?

6. There is also the Doha Round or the Doha Development Agenda that could help us as a developing country

7. The new model of exporting is to move freely between sectors and technologies and not be too dependent on manufactured products

A word of caution on RCEP negotiations. We may have freer trade but it may not be plain sailing for fairer trade given China’s record like dumping excess product and export tax rebate. Quality controls over the safety of many exported products, medicines, and foods is also a concern.

As a country, we must be a confident nation like Vietnam. Confidence doesn’t happen by chance... it takes practice, dedication and hard work.

A Chinese proverb says, “If you want one year of prosperity, grow grain. If you want 10 years of prosperity, grow trees. If you want 100 years of prosperity, grow people.”

Should we now stop learning English and start learning Mandarin?

What say you...

‘Xin Nian Kuai Le’ to those who are celebrating next week.

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