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This is why DAP will likely fail again in Sabah during GE14

LETTER | Two days ago, it was reported that Pakatan Harapan Sabah had made an offer to Parti Warisan Sabah. In addition, there were also reports saying that Harapan proposed a 60:40 framework, with Warisan taking 60 percent of state assembly seats and 40 percent of Parliament seats.

(As it turned out, the 60:40 formula was not agreed by Sabah Harapan and was instead a unilateral announcement made by Sabah DAP. Christina Liew (photo), the Harapan chairperson from PKR issued a statement yesterday correcting the 60:40-framework statement, saying it is a Sabah DAP stand, not a Harapan stand. Sabah Harapan's stand is to continue negotiations, and not to issue an ultimatum to Warisan.)

In any case, to many non-Bumiputera Harapan supporters, this 60:40 framework seems like a "generous" offer. However, the bulk of these Harapan folks come from West Malaysia. Thus, it doesn't represent the reality and sentiments of Sabah (and Sarawak). The Harapan supporters (mostly DAP) in Sabah meanwhile, are only a handful and largely the same few faces.

Let me put this in context.

1. 'Anti-Malaya' stigma
Many East Malaysians 'hate' West Malaysian 'control'. It is almost a stigma. Unlike Sabah DAP, the Sabah Harapan chairperson Liew is smarter in the sense that she knows the backlash from such display of a "tai kor" (big boss) attitude.

She understands better the East Malaysian sentiment, perhaps due to PKR's appeal all these years to a vast and diverse demography, in contrast to DAP who targets heavily the Chinese demography. She also knows that such an ultimatum will only reignite the anti-Malaya sentiments, which will damage Harapan.

2. Racial politics loses in East M'sia
Whenever there is an opposition pact, the opposition will adopt the mentality of 'DAP contests Chinese areas', 'PKR/PAS/Bersatu contest in mixed/Malay/Bumi areas'.

This formula benefitted DAP the most in the peninsula, especially in 2008 and 2013, because the peninsula Chinese traditionally either abstain from voting or vote the opposition. For the Chinese in the peninsula, the rocket symbol has always been the "voice of the Chinese".

Hence in 2008 and 2013, DAP was able to bulldoze and demand its way into whatever Chinese seats there were. The formula was also introduced to East Malaysia in 2011, where DAP won more seats in the Sarawak state elections. However, in 2016, the formula didn't work well. DAP lost a few of the seats won in 2011.

As we have seen in 2008, 2011, 2013 and 2016, the results in East Malaysia were not as fruitful as West Malaysia. In other words, the rocket symbol doesn't appeal to the Chinese as much as it does in the peninsula. Harapan (through DAP mostly) won more seats in the 2011 Sarawak state elections but lost some again in 2016.

This happened because Sabahans (and Sarawakians) do not value racial politics. We are the real 1Malaysia way before Prime Minister Najib Razak coined the slogan. We are the real one big family.

The Chinese will not vote DAP on the basis that it is a Chinese party, similarly, the Muslims won't vote PKR or PAS or Bersatu on the basis that it is a Bumiputera-majority or solely-Bumiputera party. When we vote, Sabahans create a real anti-establishment tsunami that will sweep across the entire state, as proven in 1994. It isn't limited to a Chinese tsunami where the Chinese voted the opposition in droves while the Bumiputeras hesitated, or vice versa, a Bumiputera-majority tsunami where the Bumiputeras voted the opposition in droves while the Chinese hesitated.

3. State emphasis over national emphasis
DAP's main narrative all these years has always been a national agenda instead of a grassroots appeal. DAP is right to say it is a national party, which is also the reason it will fail in East Malaysia, because in East Malaysia, issues like autonomy, state rights, MA63, state economy, and state prosperity triumph over national issues like 1MDB, Altantuya.

We actually don't even care who is going to be PM. DAP may have done some community works like laying gravity pipes, building roads through Impian Sabah/Sarawak etc, but these don't fall into the state emphasis category. It fails to capture the imagination of East Malaysians.

Meanwhile, what Warisan has done - despite being led by an ex-Umno vice president - is to create an image for Sabahans, so Sabahans can envision what Sabah can achieve when BN is gone. For example, job security at palm oil mills, taking control of state electricity production, turning ports into international hubs, concrete proposals on turning cities into most livable cities, viable sewerage systems in overpopulated areas, protecting the rich nature Sabah has always been proud of, enhancing tourism which has been the main attraction of Sabah all these years. These are state issues that can capture the imagination of Sabahans, enabling Sabahans to envision a new Sabah that will come about should BN crumble.

Anwar Ibrahim was able to obtain the support of many before he was jailed because he knew the importance of capturing the imagination of voters. That is why Pakatan Rakyat won 52 percent of the popular votes against BN in 2013 despite a rigged electoral system. Warisan in Sabah now is like Anwar in the peninsular before he was jailed. Both have a vision, far ahead of anyone else. While playing politics is playing politics, why they stand out is because they can pass on such vision to Malaysians and Sabahans.

How sure can I be of the above? Partially because I am born and bred as a Sabahans. But if you're not a Sabahan or Sarawakian, just do a quick search on Facebook with keywords like "Jelajah Warisan", "Warisan", "Ceramah Warisan" or anything about Warisan. Look at the turnout at each and every programme. They are in the thousands, everywhere they go throughout Sabah, including the rural areas. This has never happened before. The last I saw such huge turnouts was prior to GE13 when Anwar Ibrahim was physically with us.

Just imagine the tsunami that is cutting across the entire Sabah now. The people have come out in droves way before there was any news of elections, and they come out as Sabahans where you can find Kadazans, Dusuns, Muruts, Bajaus, Chinese, and so on.


The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of Malaysiakini.

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