The battle for Bukit Gantang is arguably the most anticipated of the three by-elections to be held on April 7. The temperature went up several notches after PAS announced its candidate for the parliamentary seat late last night.

nizar jamaluddin 100 days interview 180608 03 Ousted Perak Menteri Besar Mohd Nizar Jamaluddin, 52, is set to take on Barisan Nasional’s little known Ismail Saffian, 49, the former Bukit Gantang Umno information chief.

A quick weigh-in between the two makes Ismail looks like a minnow in facing Mohd Nizar whose candidacy comes as a surprise since PAS central committee member Idris Ahmad, a local born, was widely tipped to contest the seat.

bukit gantang by election bn candidate 240309 ismail saffian "I think the central committee wanted a candidate that is acceptable to all," explained PAS vice-president Husam Musa when asked on the rationale for choosing Mohd Nizar, perhaps referring to the need to have someone who can win over non-Malays.

It is almost impossible to imagine Mohd Nizar losing the by-election, as he is a popular figure in Perak and his ratings skyrocketed after being ousted from office.

With the current situation, a lost or even a narrow win would spell disaster for Mohd Nizar as well as Pakatan Rakyat since BN would claim that the Perak takeover has been accepted by the public.

Zambry, Najib in hot seat

It is likely though that PAS and Pakatan's real target are newly appointed menteri besar Zambry Abd Kadir and his boss Najib Abdul Razak, who is the Perak BN chair and soon-to-be prime minister.

If Mohd Nizar wins by a landslide, Zambry's legitimacy as menteri besar will be in question and Najib will be dealt a blow for orchestrating the takeover of the state government.

The contest for Bukit Gantang has already been previously billed as a referendum and the inclusion of Mohd Nizar is bound to raise the stakes.

But strategically, Mohd Nizar's candidacy involves certain risks.

This is the second time in quick succession that PAS had fielded a serving state assemblyperson for a parliamentary by-election, since Abdul Wahid Endut contested and won the Kuala Terengganu seat in January.

BN is bound to attack PAS for not having enough quality candidates from its ranks to field public office.

Focus on Malay votes

Umno is also expected to portray Mohd Nizar as a 'puppet' for the Chinese-based DAP in its bid to sway Malay voters who make up 63.5 percent of the 55,562 electorates.

bukit gantang parliamentary seat 090209 Prior to the announcement of Mohd Nizar’s candidacy, Malay voters were said to be tipping towards BN. The equation may change now given the choice of candidate.

Non-Malay voters, who make up a combined 36.2 percent, are believed to be heavily behind Pakatan and thus PAS.

Mohd Nizar, who is well-versed in English as well as being able to speak a smattering of Chinese and Tamil, is popular among the non-Malays.

MCA, Gerakan and MIC are in for a difficult time to convince the non-Malay electorate why they should support BN.

A local Gerakan activist who surveyed the area said that support for Pakatan among non-Malays was within the range of 70 to 80 percent.

Assuming this figure is correct, Mohd Nizar can score an easy victory with just slightly less than half of the total Malay votes.

The obvious 'king maker' in this contest are the Malay voters who can expect to see an intense door-to-door battle in the ubiquitous orchards and fishing villages of Kuala Sepetang and Trong.