The sentiments of Sabahans towards an opposition-less state legislative assembly and no opposition representative from Sabah in parliament is seen as one of the major factors that will determine the outcome of the Gaya by-election results today.

Political observers in the state are saying that the voting pattern will be on whether Sabahans want to continue with a total BN control of their state or to change the status quo.

Since Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) rejoined the coalition early this year after 12 years in the opposition, Sabah is now without a single opposition lawmaker.

BN, Keadilan and DAP will get the opportunity to gauge such sentiments in the polls as the people cast their votes for the candidate of their choice, be it Liew Teck Chan, Christina Liew or Hiew King Cheu respectively.

In their campaign, the BN has been singing tunes of continued development and teamwork apart from countering issues brought up by their opponents in their bid to convince the people that all is fine in their monopoly of the seats.

Keadilan and DAP, however, have been working round the clock urging the people to put them in power and ensure that a sole opposition voice sits in parliament for Sabah. It's either that or the two opposition parties are trying to find out just how far they are accepted by the people in the constituency.

DAP and Keadilan have undoubtedly gained the attention of the Chinese voters that make up the majority in the constituency at 38 percent but how many will actually turn up to vote today remains to be seen. This morning, the turnout was reported to be low, particularly in the Kadazandusun areas.

Chinese votes count

It is also true that certain sections of the Muslim bumiputra community would slant towards Keadilan and even the DAP but still it will be the Chinese votes that really matter.

A senior BN leader said the opposition parties are aware that they do not have much of a chance to wrest the seat and are using the by-election as an avenue to gauge their strength ahead of the next state and parliamentary elections.

"If they had really wanted to win, they would have worked out a deal to join forces instead of splitting," he said adding that the two parties had however made in-roads over the last nine days of aggressive campaigning.

Issues like parking fees, illegal immigrants, phantom voters, rotation of the chief minister's post and squatter colonies have been played up and countered since the campaign started on the Oct 3 nomination day.

Posters, flags and banners too had been scarce around the Gaya constituency, which is made up of the Likas and Inanam state seats an indication that there is not much excitement in the air.

From nomination day, the mood among the people seemed rather tame forcing the BN to launch a "come out to vote" campaign among Gaya voters.

The BN is worried that the turnout may be lower than the 58 percent of voters who turned up to vote during the 1999 polls.

BN solidarity is also expected to be tested among its Kadazandusun-based component parties namely the United Pasokmomogun Kadazandusun and Murut Organisation (Upko), Parti Bersatu Rakyat Sabah (PBRS) and PBS.

Internal BN skirmishes

The return of PBS into the BN, orchestrated by Chief Minister and Sabah BN chairman Chong Kah Kiat, has brought much envy among Upko and PBRS leaders who were splinter groups of the PBS.

The PBRS is still sore over the return of six state assembly representatives to PBS after they left the party (PBS) to join PBRS a year after the 1999 state election. It is no secret that the two parties, although partners in the BN, are still pursuing the interests of their individual parties.

Another worrying factor for the BN is the cold "stand-off" between Chong and Sabah Progressive Party president Yong Teck Lee, the man whose disqualification as the Gaya MP subsequently led to the by-election.

Clashes since last year on issues within the constituency such as the constantly changed policies on Gaya Street and resettlement of immigrants into Telipok as well as the revival of gaming company Diriwan Corporation that was allowed to run four-digit gaming operations in Sabah after five years have brought about bad blood between the two Chinese leaders.

It took Deputy Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi to send the message across, though in a subtle way, that Chong does not dislike Liew who happens to be Yong's vice president in SAPP.

Even in Sabah Umno, tensions are running high between camps loyal to possible contender for the chief minister's post Musa Aman and Deputy Chief Minister Lajim Ukin.

Though it seems that Keadilan and DAP could ride on the BN's internal problems, the coalition however has always found their strength as a team during elections. Will that change in Gaya ? The answer will be known tonight after the votes are counted.

JOHNNY ANTOD is a malaysiakini correspondent based in Kota Kinabalu, Sabah.