COMMENT The dust has settled after the Sarawak election. The BN has retained its two-thirds majority in the state legislature, although it won only 55 percent of the popular vote. This is a major setback because Sarawak used to be a BN fortress.

Resource rich and practically a country unto itself, Sarawak had consistently rebuffed attempts by Peninsular Malaysian political parties eager to gain a foothold in the state. However, the fortress was breached in this election when some 40 percent of Sarawakians decided to align themselves with Pakatan Rakyat.

Of special significance is the dramatic and strong showing by the DAP, which won nearly all the urban constituencies. It even won in mixed seats, a good indication that the trend in the peninsula is able to cross the South China Sea.

Although PKR onl NONE y won three seats of the 49 it contested, its haul of votes is impressive. Without the resources that the BN commanded and commandeered, PKR was able to reach into the rural heartland quite effectively. If this trend continues, the next five years will mark the beginning of the change promised in the Land of the Hornbill.

Whilst political commentators have said that the rise of opposition politics in the cities demonstrate ethnic divisions, there is more than meets the eye. If we were to map out all the by-elections that have now thankfully come to an end - plus the general voting trend in the 2008 general election - there is little doubt that the BN is fast losing ground in all urban constituencies.

This is not just because the opposition has put up candidates who are more qualified and representative of the aspirations of the urban voters, but because dissatisfaction with the government is strongest in urban areas.

Since 1957, towns and cities have been associated with non-Malays. Whether it is the trading and later, the industrial society, Malays have consistently been portrayed to be living at the edge of the city. By extension, it is also projected through works of fiction that Malays are peripheral to national growth centred in towns and cities.

What is not so obvious is that, since Independence, the number of Malays who have migrated to the cities has been quite dramatic. This writer is quite sure that the latest census figures when released will reveal that Malays now make up the majority of the population in most towns and cities.

barisan nasional bn 181110 If the BN has ethnic-based parties looking after the interests of each ethnic group, why is it that its candidates have been consistently rejected in urban areas? While in the rural setting, where the politics of patronage still hold sway although significantly challenged, urban communities are increasingly independent and demand accountability.

There may be a significant number of urban voters who depend on government jobs but the majority does not. Moreover, the Malays living in cities have entered the middle class, defined as financially stable and earning enough to organise themselves around issues they consider important to their future.

One good example is Page, the lobby group fighting for the reinstatement of a controversial government policy designed to teach Math and Science in English. This is not only confined to the middle classes. Hindraf and Bersih have managed to attract the urban poor and those who feel disenfranchised by government policies.

‘Digital tsunami’ in the making

Despite the statistics showing a dropping crime rate in urban areas, security remains a constant issue for the people. Pollution and environmental degradation is another key issue. The government should really be less cavalier about the Lynas rare earth project , lest it loses even more votes in Kuantan.

More worrying for the government is the power of social networking where people can organise themselves around issues quite easily. They may not have all the facts but it only needs a spark to get a virtual rally going. Although there are clear limitations to online campaigns, the number of issues that can be made into causes are limitless.

azlan While things seem to be quiet on the surface and Malaysians do not think that street demonstrations resolve anything, there is now a ‘digital tsunami’ that is slowly but surely turning many to vote for anything but the BN.

The Youth wings of BN component parties, led by Umno’s Khairy Jamaluddin, are putting up a strong and constructive front but ultimately it is the sins of the ‘fathers’ that are dragging the BN down. Even if some actions are not condoned by the top leadership, the coalition is discredited. For example, few support the ‘Datuk T’ but most blame Umno for what they have done.

It has not just been political parties that have crossed into Sarawak but issues associated with urban living as well. By 2020, it is estimated that some 70 percent of Malaysians in Peninsular Malaysia will be living in towns and cities.

The political challenge, like the economic and social ones, will be centred in cities. Not only will an overwhelming number of citizens be living in cities but the rate of urbanisation will be faster than ever before.

Dramatic urban growth is piling on greater strain upon our infrastructure and natural resources. We cannot attract the right kind of talent into local government; the civil servants now in service are already overwhelmed by the complexity and volume of problems faced by citizens.

If we are a dissatisfied lot, it is because everything experienced in the city is more dramatic. Parents become more anxious about the future of their children and start sending them for tuition at the age of five! We also face a demographic time-bomb with a huge youthful population that will have to work so much harder to compete for limited jobs.

Eventually, even the affirmative action policy may not be enough to cover the bumiputera community, giving rise to sharper and more painful exclusionary policies. This trend usually results in a backlash against the government of the day. Even if Pakatan is able to win the next general election and form the government, it too will have to face the urban problem.

Sarawak has shown that, even in Borneo, the urban problem - characterised by local dissatisfaction with services, the perceived lack of opportunities, and greater awareness of national issues - has crossed the South China Sea.

While the ethnic dimension may still hold water in the rural areas, the urban problem will determine the shape and nature of future politics. The BN has won the battle, but Pakatan is out to win the war.

 

NEIL KHOR completed his PhD at Cambridge University and now writes occasionally on matters that he thinks requires better historical treatment. He is quietly optimistic about Malaysia's future.