GE13 WATCH With the Negri Sembilan state assembly expected to be dissolved automatically at midnight today, all eyes are now on who will control the House in the coming election which must be called within 60 days.

The situation remains unclear, with both BN and Pakatan Rakyat appearing confident and analysts agree that the southern state will be a toss-up between the two.

bagan pinang nomination 031009 pas crowd Pakatan, which took only two of the 36 state assembly seats in 2004 - Lobak and Bahau - pulled off a surprise by securing 15 seats in 2008, robbing the incumbent BN state government of its much-vaunted two-thirds majority and even came close to toppling it.

With BN controlling 21 seats, a swing of four seats would see Negri Sembilan governed by a new state government for the first time in history.

Of the 15 seats controlled by Pakatan, 10 are held by DAP, four by PKR and one by PAS.

Attention is now on whether Pakatan can sustain its momentum five years ago to win another four seats to wrest state power.

Targetting marginal seats

Pakatan is targetting BN-held seats that were won with a slim majority in the 2008 general election.

Eight of BN's 21 seats are considered to be winnable by Pakatan as they were lost with a majority of around 1,000 votes and below.

For example, the state constituency of Klawang was won by BN in 2008 with a margin of only 841 votes. Pilah (majority 1,258), Lenggeng (1,285), Johol (1,263) and Labu (1,405) are also facing a similar situation.

NONE For Linggi (1,575) and Jeram Padang (1,808), BN's majority in 2008 was halved compared to the 2004 general election.

Pakatan is nevertheless aiming higher than the minimum four seats required to win power to ensure it has a stable state government.

"We are aiming for 20 seats as 19 would already give us a simple majority," said DAP chief Anthony Loke.

Loke ( right ) who won Lobak with a thumping 6,928-vote majority is expected to move to a tougher constituency in Chennah , which was lost to BN by a 1,298-vote majority.

Such confidence is similarly on display on BN's side, with Negri Sembilan Menteri Besar Mohamad Hasan reportedly saying that the ruling coalition plans to capture back eight of Pakatan's 15 state seats.

The seats are Ampangan (PKR - majority 165),  Sikamat (PKR - 499), Repah (DAP - 533), Port Dickson (PKR - 733), Paroi (PAS - 1,107),  Temiang (DAP - 1,338), and Nilai (DAP - majority 1,894) and Senawang (DAP - 3,335).

Four of the eight seats was won by Pakatan with less than 1,000 votes - DAP's Repah, PKR's Ampangan, Port Dickson and Sikamat.

Personality dimension

If Mohamad, who is also Rantau state assemblyperson, has his way, BN will regain its two-thirds majority, controlling 29 of the 36 state assembly seats.

negeri sembilan state seat breakdown 300109 Universiti Malaya Centre for Democracy and Elections (Umcedel) director, Mohammad Redzuan Othman concurred that Negri Sembilan could go either way in the coming election.

"BN has done much preparation and the goodies they ditch out do have an impact. Furthermore, the state also has several Felda schemes which are likely BN fixed deposits.

"But on Pakatan's side, it has a sizeable support from the Chinese community," he said.

He said that it was difficult to consider the 'personality dimension' to the election until after the opposing coalitions announce their candidates.

Mohammad also opined that local issues are less likely to have a bearing on the state election compared to national ones.

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