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SPECIAL REPORT After the twin tragedies of the jailing of ex-opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim and the passing of former PAS spiritual leader Nik Aziz Nik Mat, the resulting vacuum in leadership has left the opposition near-gutted.

As it stands now, Pakatan Rakyat is all but a memory, Pakatan Harapan seemingly without hope, and PAS totally out of the loop.

This brings political pundits to conclude that the disaster has pushed the opposition so far back to the point where they were before the 2008 general election.

This was particularly so, taking into account the current sentiments - public fatigue when it comes to politics and flagging popular support for the opposition.

Being in the doldrums, with the next general election just two years away is a far cry from the energy and excitement coursing through civil society circa 2011 - two years before the 2013 polls.

Back then, pro-opposition sentiment was building up prior to the 13th general election (GE13) and Pakatan was using the support of civil society to its advantage, utilising social media and the internet to spread its message for a change of government.

The excitement quickly turned to despair once harsh reality set in, said political commentator Liew Wui Chern

"But, BN's fortress remained unshaken despite the opposition garnering 51.4 percent of the popular vote. This reality has hit the people hard, and they have barely recovered from this depression.

"They no longer think a change in government is possible through the ballot box while some are fed up with the opposition following a series of events that led to the breakdown of Pakatan Rakyat and mudslinging from both sides," he added.

Even with political fatigue as the backdrop, it is still too early to tell if the five-month-old Harapan, which replaced Pakatan, can reclaim the support the opposition bloc once enjoyed, he said.

Concurring, another political analyst Tang Ah Chai noted the frayed opposition has lost its shine.

"The two major events - the ‘Kajang move’ and the (move towards) implementation of Islamic penal code - hudud - have broken Pakatan apart. This caused a setback in the opposition movement, pushing them back to pre-2008 national polls," said Tang.

The infamous ‘Kajang move’ which some say was triggered by factional infighting to oust then Selangor MB Khalid Ibrahim had garnered brickbats from opposition supporters and detractors alike.

In any case, the fledgling Harapan, he argued, is at the stage where Pakatan parties were at before the last general election.

Meanwhile, Liew opined that the allegations of financial improprieties in the 1MDB fiasco and Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak’s RM2.6 billion 'donation/investment-gate' are not adequate to generate a wave of 'political tsunami' to flush BN out of Putrajaya.

No action, just observe

"Najib is doing everything to resolve it, to save his image. (He even goes to the extent of) clamping down on free speech," he noted.

"Yes, the people are angry and disappointed, but not many look up to the opposition as an alternative. They are in an observing mode rather than action mode," added Liew, who lectures at the Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman.

"The opposition is still struggling to find a better position to reach out to the people," he noted, adding that a rift has appeared between the opposition and their traditional allies from civil society movements, as well as being bogged down with its squabbles with former member PAS.

Agreeing with Liew, UKM political science lecturer Ahmad Nizammuddin Sulaiman further noted that the opposition might miss the opportunity to vote out BN in the next general election.

"This is too bad for the opposition. BN is not in a strong position now. Harapan should take advantage of this weakness but they themselves fail to work coherently," said Ahmad.

He is doubtful that PAS, which claimed it will be contesting 11 seats in the coming Sarawak state election, will gain the support of non-Muslims and the same is true for Harapan.

"Harapan will lose some non-Malay votes since breaking up with PAS. Perhaps they will get some lesson in the coming Sarawak state election," he said.

The coming Sarawak state election, which the political analyst will use as a barometer for the opposition's performance in the next election, is slated for April. The last state election was held in April 2011 - two years before GE13.

The last polls saw an unprecedented development, with the opposition grabbing 15 out of 71 seats in what was supposed to be BN's safe deposit, by mainly focusing on alleged corruptions surrounding then chief minister Abdul Taib Mahmud's family.

The opposition, however, seems to have run out of bullets to fire at the current Chief Minister Adenan Satem, whose mild and moderate leadership is touted as having the right ingredients to help BN secure the state and federal administration in the coming polls.

Not easy for Adenan

Universiti Putra Malaysia political analyst Professor Jayum Jawan, however, said that it would be quite a challenge for Adenan to gain two-thirds majority.

"I would venture to suggest the Sarawak Chinese are quick to acquire the political mentality of the Peninsular Chinese, in seeing that supporting the opposition is a double victory for the community, where they have a strong voice to articulate Chinese interests from outside the government.

"The Chinese who live in the urban area will not be abandoned by the government because it's the symbol of development of any state and no government of any state will discriminate (against) urban areas because it is held or ruled by the opposition," said the Sarawak-born professor.

“ ‘Chinese’ seats alone, however, will not guarantee that the opposition can deny Sarawak BN the two-thirds majority. But there are enough shaky Dayak constituencies due to the changing of guards and infighting between factions (and splinter parties)," he added.

Nodding, Tang said how they negotiate the Sarawak polls is a good indicator of how well they will face the next GE.

"If the opposition (component parties) able to coordinate among themselves by formulating a one-on-one fight in the 82 Sarawak state seats, then they have a better chance to do so in the next national polls," said Tang.

Opposition losing touch with people

But, more than just coordination, the opposition's greatest enemy is also that it has lost touch with public sentiment.

Liew said the opposition should go to the ground and understand people's anticipation and demands, instead of continuing to indulge in past glories and using the same old strategies.

"They seem to have lost touch with the people on the ground," he added.

Meanwhile, political scientist Wong Chin Huat said the opposition needs to come up with solutions to address the post-NEP (New Economic Policy) scenario and address Malaysia's rapid Islamisation under the BN.

"The problem with the old BN framework is that to them it was a zero-sum game where people would think that if things get more Islamic, then non-Muslims will lose, and vice versa.

"If Harapan can figure out a way to show that their interest is a win-win situation for both core groups, then they have a chance. And two years is enough to get the message down," he said.

Individual party's problems

Wong also noted structural weaknesses in Harapan component parties that must be addressed as the pact works to rebuild itself.

"PKR has no clear leadership. They are not able to consolidate their support despite telling the world for 18 years that they are the party of the future (for Malaysia)," said Wong.

As for the DAP, he worries that the battle between traditionalists who prefer the status quo and those who want to implement inclusive reforms might hobble the socialist democratic party.

"There are different voices in the party, where some think DAP needs to embrace Malays more while another faction worries that DAP is becoming the new MCA; in order to win over Malay voters, will DAP become too soft? (If yes,) then what's the point of getting DAP in the government if DAP is not going to change the government," said Wong.

Liew also noted the intractability of those who believe in the status quo in the DAP.

"DAP has a mentality of thinking the party is the only choice for Chinese. The party refuses to concede that when it comes to negotiation, it is, in fact, heading toward dictatorship, particularly in the Penang government.

"We saw many from the elite joining the party before, particularly before GE12 and GE13; but we seldom see this now. DAP is facing a succession problem," he said, noting that without more high-calibre candidates to choose from, the party will be hard-pressed to find good quality leaders.

DAP has many outstanding second-line leaders, but none of them seems prepared to take over from party secretary-general Lim Guan Eng, who will need to step down after his two terms are up, two terms being the maximum that the party constitution allows an individual to occupy the top post, according to Liew.

As for the new kid on the block Amanah, Wong posited that the party will have a hard time selling its non-nationalistic approach of Islam by propagating 'Islam for all' and that religion is not a zero-sum game.

"The challenge is that in a society like Malaysia where religion is so politicised, how do you sell that idea? They have a solution, but can they find a big enough market for their solution to survive?.

"If they can, then it's very clear cut that's where the future is because they are offering a different narrative.

"For DAP and PKR, if they can change their voters from a zero-sum game mentality to rearticulate the interests of their constituencies, then that's the future," Wong said.

As for the 'pariah' of the opposition - PAS - it has other problems.

"PAS is trapped between two enemies - Umno and Amanah. Umno is its traditional enemy but Amanah is the bigger threat.

"PAS wants to say they oppose Umno and can eliminate Amanah, but in reality, they are not strong enough to do either," said Wong.

PAS’ biggest threat is Amanah, but many PAS members have been hating Umno for too long it limits their options on how to move, he said.

In the same vein, Liew opined that PAS may lose the support of non-Malays and urbanites and will be pushed further back into its East Coast stronghold in the next polls.

"That's why it mooted to work with Umno, thinking it can make a comeback in the next elections. However, not all in the party are convinced. They have different opinions; some may think they will even lose their base in the East Coast if they cling to their old enemy, Umno," he said.

In the end, what is clear though, for opposition pact Harapan and its estranged ‘ally’ PAS, they will have to think long and hard on what they need to do in the coming Sarawak state polls as it will be their last and only chance to figure out a workable strategy before GE14.

Either they find a way to work together and build a better opposition, or look within to address the weakness that each party individually has and find ways to shine where they can.

Otherwise, it’s back to a state of blue. All they can look forward to is to fall back under two-third majority BN rule.

Related Stories

Part 1: A year since Anwar-Nik Aziz twin tragedies rocked opposition

Part 2: Absence of Anwar, Nik Aziz leaves vacuum in opposition

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