Within a fortnight of making major advances in the 2011 Sarawak state election, DAP had started to redouble efforts to spread its influence into rural areas of the state.

Back then, the party managed to double its seats in the state legislative assembly from six seats to 12, hence becoming the largest opposition party in Sarawak.

Part of this has to do with the unpopularity of the then Sarawak chief minister Abdul Taib Mahmud in Sarawak's urban centres and ethnic Chinese-majority constituencies, which form DAP's traditional vote base.

Despite consistent denials, Taib had been bogged down by allegations of corruption that gained traction in these areas.

Now, as the next state election looms, DAP is headed into uncharted territory by sending its candidates in rural, Dayak-majority seats – many of which are constituencies where the party had never contested before.

However, Taib had stepped down in February 2014, and was succeeded by much more popular Adenan Satem.

According to an April 2015 poll conducted by Merdeka Centre, Adenan had a high approval rating of 74 percent, and the sentiments transcended ethnicity and rural-urban dichotomies.

Hence, questions arise on whether DAP can defend its home turf as it looks to reap the results of five years of campaigning in the longhouses.

One analyst seems to think so.

Universiti Putra Malaysia political analyst Professor Jayum Jawan told Malaysiakini that the support for DAP would likely remain, if not improved.

“ The majority of the Chinese will continue to support the DAP in the coming state election.

“ They are still not happy with the ruling coalition due mainly to what they perceived as the failure of the state leadership to open up more business opportunities that are continued to be dominated by a few individuals and interests,” he said.

Factional infighting

Jayum's assertions appear to be backed by findings released by the pollster Merdeka Centre on Wednesday.

Only 41 percent of Chinese voters polled feel that the state is headed in the right direction, compared to the 55 percent overall average.

In contrast, there is little difference between urban and rural respondents polled on the matter, and the figures stuck close to the average.

However, it is unclear how these sentiments would translate into votes.

Also aiding DAP's situation, Jayum added, is that Sarawak United Peoples' Party's (SUPP) has not been able to articulate Chinese interests, while being bogged down by factional infighting.

This does not augur well for BN's attempts to win back the Chinese electorate.

However, Jayum believes that it would be a waste of resources for DAP to venture into Sarawak's interior, as it will not be able to penetrate into these seats.

Meanwhile, another political observer is less optimistic but still thinks DAP would be able to hold onto its present holding in Sarawak's Chinese-majority urban constituencies.

“ The Chinese are still suspicious of Adenan. It is not said openly but many think he is not in full control with Taib as governor,” said University of Tasmania Asia Institute director James Chin.

He told Malaysiakini that DAP had won the Chinese-majority seats in the last state election with such large majority that it could not lose those seats.

Perhaps, the margin of DAP's winnings may be diminished instead.

Chin added that the goods and services tax (GST) introduced in April last year is also a hot topic.

Adding to DAP's advantage is infighting between two Chinese-majority BN parties in the state, namely SUPP and United People's Party (UPP), he said.

Meanwhile, Sarawak DAP chief Chong Chieng Jen dismissed suggestions that the party is on the defensive.

“ It depends on the issue. On corruption issues, he (Adenan) will be on the defensive. The whole BN will be on the defensive.

“ On economic issues also, they are on the defensive,” he told Malaysiakini when asked last week.

Checks and balances

In poll results released on Wednesday however, corruption issues ranked low on issues that voters want the state government to focus on.

Only 7.5 percent cited administrative issues (including corruption) as among the top two issues that need solving.

In contrast, economic issues garnered most attention from voters (33.2 percent), but many (55 percent) are satisfied with the state government's management of the economy.

Chong told Malaysiakini that DAP's campaigning will be focused on convincing voters that Sarawak needs a stronger opposition, in order to improve checks and balances and gain more leverage in demanding more development and reforms in the state.

“ If Sarawakians want him (Adenan) to do better, if you have to tell that (to him), (that) is not enough. We want more.

“How do you tell him? If you let him win with a bigger majority, then there is no need for him to do better. So you have to make him lose a few more seat to urge him to do better,” he said.

The Sarawak state legislative assembly will be dissolved on Monday next week, and the state election must be called within the next 60 days.

It will be the first time Adenan leads Sarawak BN into an election since taking over from Taib.