Jakarta voters head to the polls on Wednesday to elect a governor for Indonesia's teeming capital after a campaign that incited political and religious tensions in the world's most-populous Muslim country.
Surveys have shown the race tightening to a statistical dead heat, with incumbent governor Basuki ‘Ahok’ Tjahaja Purnama, an ethnic Chinese Christian, closing in on rival Anies Baswedan, a former education minister.
Purnama is standing trial on blasphemy charges stemming from the divisive campaign that also featured mass rallies led by Islamist hardliners and alleged plots to overthrow President Joko Widodo, who is popularly known as Jokowi.
The Jakarta election is viewed as a larger choice ahead of a 2019 presidential poll between the secular policies Indonesia has practised since its post-World War II independence and a hardline political Islam that has strengthened in recent years.
"This is a test case for Indonesian pluralism, if it can withstand the pressure of the religious groups, the populists," said Wimar Witoelar, a political analyst and an adviser to former Indonesian president Abdurrahman Wahid.
"Indonesia is at a crossroads, and I mean Indonesia, not just Jakarta."
A survey conducted April 12-14 by polling firm Indikator showed Anies with 48.2 percent support versus 47.4 percent for Purnama, with 4.4 percent undecided.
Worries about backlash
The business community is worried about a possible violent backlash from the losing side in the election, which could affect the investment climate and endanger Joko's fit-and-start economic reforms.
Southeast Asia's biggest economy grew 5.2 percent in 2016 and the government expects a repeat of that this year. Indonesian stocks are up 12.6 percent on the year, making the Jakarta market one of Asia's best performers.
Kartika Wirjoatmodjo, chief executive officer of the country's largest state bank, Bank Mandiri, said in an interview that whoever won "we (should) make sure it doesn't affect any of the long-term policies, especially on the openness and... ease of doing business and attracting investment."
Purnama (photo), who replaced Joko in 2014 as Jakarta governor after serving as his deputy, saw his popularity soar as he tackled decrepit infrastructure, chronic flooding and endemic corruption in the traffic-clogged city of over 10 million.
His support plunged after an edited video circulated last September suggesting Purnama had mocked a verse in the Quran used by his opponents to argue Muslims should not vote for a person holding different religious beliefs.
Amid two rallies last year that drew hundreds of thousands of protesters, Purnama was charged with blasphemy, forcing him to make regular appearances in court during the campaign.
The hardline Islamists behind the rallies - led by the Islamic Defenders Front (FPI), a group known for attacks on religious minorities and extorting money from nightclubs - were cultivated by Purnama's rivals. Baswedan was accused of betraying his moderate Islamic roots when he met and sang with FPI leader Habib Rizieq, who was twice imprisoned for inciting violence in 2003 and 2008.
Purnama recovered to win the first round on Feb 15 with 43 percent of the vote, compared with 40 percent for Baswedan and 17 percent for Agus Yudhoyono, son of former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who drew support from conservative Muslims.
Chinese plots
The FPI was among groups circulating hoax news stories on social media during the campaign of a pending invasion of Chinese workers and Chinese plots to decimate Indonesia's crops with contaminated chili.
The FPI has vowed to stage further protests and a "revolution" if Purnama wins, according to flyers circulated by the group.
A senior government official said a victory for Purnama could reignite religious tensions and China-baiting at a time when the government is chasing Chinese investment for much-needed infrastructure.
"I worry that if a sizeable portion of the electorate feels cheated there could be a very serious backlash," said the official, who asked for anonymity to speak freely about the political climate in Indonesia.
However, political analyst Tobias Basuki also saw risks for the national government and its reform agenda if Baswedan won, given plans by his political patron Prabowo Subianto to challenge Joko in the 2019 presidential poll.
Baswedan was Joko's campaign manager in the 2014 presidential election, when he beat Subianto. But Joko sacked him as education minister last year.
"Anies and Prabowo controlling Jakarta would impede Jokowi every step of the way," Basuki said.
Polls at a glance:
The candidates
Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, known by his Chinese nickname as 'Ahok', is the incumbent governor who took over running Jakarta in 2014 when his then boss, Joko Widodo, won the presidency. Purnama, 50, is the city's first ethnic Chinese and Christian leader and is backed by the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).
Purnama is standing trial on blasphemy charges after allegedly insulting the Quran during the campaign. Hundreds of thousands of protesters rallied after an edited video of his comments about a Quranic verse were circulated. He has appeared in court throughout the campaign. If he wins the election but is convicted of blasphemy, Purnama can assume office as long as an appeals process is going on.
Purnama's policies include new infrastructure to fix Jakarta’s chronic traffic congestion, flood mitigation, better waste management and anti-corruption measures.
Anies Baswedan, 47, is the former rector of Jakarta’s Paramadina University and campaign manager for Joko during the 2014 election. Joko appointed him education minister but sacked him less than two years later.
Baswedan has shifted allegiance to Joko’s presidential rival in the 2014 campaign, Prabowo Subianto, and now represents Prabowo's Gerindra Party. Baswedan was criticised for meeting hardline Islamists during the campaign. His platform has focused on improving public education and combating the rising cost of living. He opposes a giant seawall in Jakarta Bay that Purnama has advocated.
Voting in Jakarta
The April 19 election is a runoff between the two most popular candidates in the first round of polling held on Feb 5. In the first round, Purnama received 43 percent of the vote and Baswedan 40 percent. A third candidate, Agus Yudhoyono, dropped out of the race after receiving only 17 percent of the vote.
A candidate needs a simple majority to win.
Private pollsters approved by the General Elections Commission will conduct quick counts of a sample of votes after polls close on April 19, giving an indication of the winner.
Official results are expected to be announced by the elections commission by May 5-6.
Defeated candidates can dispute the results in the Constitutional Court.
About 7.1 million people are registered to vote in Jakarta. The turnout was 77 percent for the first round of voting.
- Reuters
