COMMENT | Universiti Utara Malaysia professor Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani may be right in saying that PAS is good only to spoil votes, but in a three-cornered fight between Umno and Pakatan Harapan, I think Umno will lose.

To qualify my statement, it depends on whether former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad can do a good job in reaching out to the rural Malays. He and former deputy prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin should just focus on reaching the rural Malays, not the urban voters who have already made up their minds.

A changing political landscape

The game plan has changed. The rural Malays, who both Umno and PAS had a strong grip on in the past, now have to decide between Umno, PAS and Pakatan Harapan. Malay votes are split into three.

Even with PAS entering into the Barisan Nasional fold, it is still a question of whether Umno or PAS will field its candidates. What if PAS breaks away from BN? It will leave a big hole in the ruling party.

In a three-cornered fight, the die-hard Umno supporters will support Umno; likewise with the PAS ardent supporters, who will still stick with PAS. The disillusioned Umno supporters will likely choose Pakatan Harapan for a change, with Mahathir now weighing on their voting pattern.

Like it or not, Pakatan Harapan attracts a wider spectrum of voters compared to Umno or the ailing ruling coalition. In West Malaysia, all three parties – Gerakan, MCA and MIC – have lost their flavours due to a lack of good leaders.

On the three-cornered fight again, we should not forget that PAS has also gone through a major split, and its grassroots now have a choice between the Islamic party and a more progressive Islamic party, Amanah, which has gained the respect of non-Muslims.

People like Mat Sabu, Khalid Abdul Samad, Dzulkefly Ahmad, Salahuddin Ayub and Mujahid Yusof Rawa, to name a few, are more likely to be accepted by the non-Muslim community compared to the late PAS president Nik Aziz Nik Mat and his former deputy Nasharudin Mat Isa. These were, after all, the faces of PAS during the last two general elections.

In Malay strongholds, most people will remember the red-shirt leader Jamal Md Yunos and the unrestrained ruckus that he created for a few months. People can see what Umno is capable of doing through the example set by Jamal, who is now set to contest for the position of Umno Youth chief.

Payback time

Most Chinese voters also remember Utusan Malaysia’s front page headline, “Apa lagi Cina mahu?” (What more do the Chinese want?) just after the last general election. That was enough for people to see through the Prime Minister and Umno president, Najib Abdul Razak and his 1Malaysia slogan.

In fact, 1Malaysia has become crudely speaking synonymous with the 1MDB scandal. The only explanation I can offer to the report that Malaysian Twitter users have lost their interest in 1MDB is that anything to do with 1MDB is a long foregone conclusion.

The interest may be gone, but the conclusion is already final, especially after the civil suits filed by the US Department of Justice (DOJ). Umno leaders can call it a foreigners’ conspiracy but no one ever buys this fairy tale.   

No one needs to elaborate any further about 1MDB. Although most urbanites may not dwell on this topic anymore, they are certainly not ill-informed especially since the Internet has opened up a wide, wide world.

News on 1MDB from every corner of the Earth can be found by just doing a search for keywords like 1MDB or the infamous Jho Low.

While it is true that 1MDB would not be the major topic of interest to rural Malay folks, Mahathir’s presence in the villages just shaking the hands of the old folks is enough to shore up Malay votes for Pakatan Harapan.

These folks have lived through the 22 years of Mahathir’s reign and their loyalty to the 92-year-old nonagenarian is not easily swayed.

In my opinion, Umno will find it difficult to sustain its grassroots support; therefore, it is far better for PAS not to contest in Umno marginal seats like Paya Jaras, an Umno stronghold that was won by PAS in the last general election.

My take is that PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang and his party are only as strong when they are riding on the crest of Reformasi. Hadi’s own performance in 2004, after the Barisan Alternatif split, was anything but good.

This is where PAS has always been in Malaysian politics. PAS is as good as gone, especially if it manages to get the controversial hudud-linked private member’s bill passed in Parliament.

STEPHEN NG is an ordinary citizen with an avid interest in following political developments in the country since 2008.

The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of Malaysiakini.