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Calculating GE14 - building up to be a cliffhanger?

COMMENT | It is far too early to know when the next general election in Malaysia will be held. It would be the 14th in Malaysia's history, though.

But who will perish in the impending 14th general election? The proverbial knife, to be sure, will cut both ways. It may seem hypothetical, but the risks are highest to Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak, as the bejewelled crown is, after all, his to lose.

Thus, if there is an anti-Najib wave, which is increasingly likely due to the increase in the cost of living, the coming general election will see the end of his political career as the sixth prime minister of Malaysia.

In turn, if Najib can hold back Pakatan Harapan, it would be the opposition that will probably see the end of itself - especially if it refuses to work together in avoiding multi-cornered fights. Thus, this election is building up to be a cliffhanger. However, a caveat is due too.

Even if Najib loses, there is the National Security Council Act 2016 that can be kicked into operation to suspend the electoral process in its entirety. If this be the case, it would signal the end of Malaysian electoral democracy too; as the incumbent has refused to give in to the verdict of the voters.

Come what may, Umno has been at the top of the political food chain since 1946. In the last general election in 2013, despite losing the popular votes, it still garnered 88 parliamentary seats (now, with two seats gone to the opposition), making it the first among equals in the proverbial game of thrones.

But, due to a spate of alleged corruption scandals, especially 1MDB, Umno is fast losing steam too. Thus, it is deriving its strength primarily from working with the political parties in Sabah and Sarawak.

These two states contributed 22 and 25 parliamentary seats to the stable of the government led by Umno. With a total of 47 additional seats, Umno was able to rule Malaysia based on the crucible of uniting Umno with the seats derived from the two Borneo states.

However, the much celebrated Pan-Borneo Highway that has been launched and relaunched numerous times, which seeks to connect Sabah and Sarawak, has not seen serious progress as yet or at best, at a very infant stage...

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