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Najib fears the perfect storm, Azmin will bring the rain

COMMENT | I was recently in a conversation with diplomats, journalists and an Umno office holder. Conversation naturally turned to when the general election would be held. The money, as it were, is on next year and there are compelling reasons to support this.

We are in a period of tremendous openness and fluidity, where any number of political scenarios are possible. This is why Najib Abdul Razak hasn’t called an election yet.

With the recent emergence of Bersatu led by former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad, the Malay electorate is more split than it has ever been. Over the last 20 years, the number of opposition parties contesting Umno in Malay-majority seats has trebled as PAS was joined by PKR, and now Bersatu.

Of course, Umno can retain its seats if the opposition parties fail to unite and instead contend against both Umno and each other in multi-cornered fights. This is the bitter lesson of Malaysian elections that has driven opposition parties into a coalition, time and again.

Since 1998, PAS, DAP and PKR have been in and out of coalitions with one another, from Barisan Alternatif to Pakatan Rakyat and now Pakatan Harapan (sans PAS). Every time they united and presented a straight one-on-one fight against Barisan Nasional, they were able to increase their seats. Every time they fell apart, BN gained more seats.

We are now in a transitional situation. The opposition parties are in partial unity and Umno is wracked with crises of confidence and popularity and led by the most unpopular prime minister in living memory.

Najib fears the scenario where Umno will face straight fights – one-on-one – against an organised opposition formed out of PKR, DAP, Bersatu, Amanah, and PAS. This is the outcome that will guarantee the maximum loss for Umno, a “Malay Tsunami,” and pave the way for a change in federal government.

While Najib has made great progress in bringing PAS closer to Umno and away from the rest of the opposition, this process is far from complete and has been facing internal resistance within PAS. Najib needs to deliver a big win in order to remain in power. He is cautious, he is cunning, and he wants all the pieces to fall into place before he calls the general election.

There remains a chance for an electoral deal to be struck between at least PKR and PAS. This is in the self-interest of both parties as they are both competing for the Malay ground currently in Umno’s weakened grasp. If they can reach an electoral accommodation, it is possible that they could deny Umno 20 or more seats.

It is also expected that PKR will cede some seats it traditionally contests to Amanah and Bersatu. Negotiations between PKR and PAS could be extended to ensure that Amanah and Bersatu survive and prosper beyond the general election. DAP is the one opposition party that does not face the problem of multi-cornered contests (bar one or two seats) with Umno and PAS, precisely because it caters to a different community.

While some of PKR’s coalition members in Harapan are leery of an alliance with PAS, they must recognise that it is PKR’s prerogative to do so for mutual prosperity, just as it is certainly Bersatu's to negotiate in Kedah, for example. Both PKR and Bersatu can be members of Harapan while working out productive non-aggression pacts with PAS...

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