GE14 | Pakatan Harapan and BN are neck and neck in terms of popular vote in Johor, the birthplace of Umno, with less than two weeks to go before the May 9 general election.

According to a survey by Merdeka Centre, the popular vote is 47 percent for BN and 42 percent for Harapan while PAS is at 11 percent.

According to a racial breakdown, 60.9 percent Malays, 22.4 percent Chinese and 64.3 percent Indians are supporting BN as of April 9.

For Harapan, 19.4 percent Malay, 77.6 percent Chinese and 32.7 percent Indian are supporting the opposition coalition.

PAS has 19.2 percent Malay and three percent Indian support while Chinese backing is negligible for the Islamist party.

Read more: Clock ticking against Harapan to turn Malay ripple into tsunami

However, for Harapan to have a realistic chance of capturing Nusajaya, it needs to win substantially more support than BN to overcome gerrymandering.

Specifically, Harapan needs 10 percent more Malay support and five percent more Chinese support, according to Merdeka Centre executive director Ibrahim Suffian.

"At this moment, they (Harapan) are not here yet.

"You can see BN support among Malays in Johor have dropped but those who are not voting BN appear to be split between PAS and Harapan," he pointed out.

Merdeka Centre estimated that around 20.9 percent of Malay voters had moved from BN since the last general election.

However, BN is still ahead in Johor despite suffering the worst drop in Malay support compared to other states due to a high base effect from the last general election.

"If Harapan really wants to win, they need 10 percent more Malay support and up the Chinese support in order to cross the line and they have less than 14 days left to get things done," said Ibrahim.

Boosting Chinese support for Harapan in Johor in the little time left may be achievable, owing to the fact that the current level of support is lower than the national average of 85 percent.

However, Harapan's Malay support of 19.4 percent in Johor is already similar to the national average of 20 percent and will require a stronger catalyst to boost the numbers.