PAS carries BN across finish line in Cameron Highlands
ANALYSIS | For the first time, the electoral pact between Umno and PAS has proved successful.
After several false starts during the past four by-elections, the Cameron Highlands by-election saw BN winning the parliamentary seat with 54.73 percent of the vote.
This is nearly the same proportion of votes that BN and PAS secured collectively (55.23 percent) during the 14th general election in Cameron Highlands.
Such levels of motivation among members of either party had not been witnessed in the past four by-elections, unless their own party had fielded a candidate.
After BN candidate Ramli Mohd Nor was confirmed as the winner, acting Umno president Mohamad Hasan credited the coalition’s alliance with PAS as one of the reasons for Ramli’s victory.
Strong Orang Asli, Malay turnout
A preliminary analysis of the results by Malaysiakini revealed that the Orang Asli were the most motivated to vote.
An estimated 79.8 percent of voters in the nine Orang Asli-majority polling districts – where Orang Asli make up around 95 percent of the voters in each area – turned up to vote.
This is far higher than that the average turnout of 68.79 percent across the constituency.
The community still proved to be strong supporters of BN, which is Pahang’s state government, although the coalition's vote share is estimated to have dropped from 95 percent during the 14th general election to 75.57 percent now.
The Malay turnout for yesterday’s by-election is estimated to be 70.46 percent, again higher than the constituency average.
Harapan made minor gains – below two percent – in all but one Malay-majority voting district, but was unable to challenge the combined might of Umno and PAS.
In contrast, the turnout rates for Chinese- and Indian-majority areas – where Harapan was most successful – were below the constituency average.
The turnout among Indian voters was the poorest. It is likely that many have moved out of the constituency.
Race and religion
On the surface, BN's campaign strategy centred less on policy and more on Harapan's failure to live up to its GE14 promises.
Covertly, BN and PAS had dispatched their vote canvassers to make house visits to convey their main message – that Harapan candidate M Manogaran was not one of their own and should be rejected.
Virtually every night, BN and PAS would join hands for small-scale soapbox speeches in Malay villages across the constituency, warning locals about why DAP was a threat to them.
Malaysiakini's interviews with voters in Malay enclaves found that many equate Manogaran with rioters accused of killing firefighter Muhammad Adib Mohd Kassim last November.
Complicating matters for Harapan was the fact that no one has been held accountable for Adib's death.
Harapan had rolled in a long list of ministers and deputy ministers, including Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad, to counter BN's racial rhetoric but to no avail.
The Najib factor
While it is difficult to argue that Mahathir's role in the by-election campaign had an impact, the same cannot be said of former prime minister Najib Abdul Razak, who inadvertently became the face of BN's campaign.
Najib often campaigned from dawn till dusk, stopping often for selfies and engaging with voters, while parading his new laidback ‘Bossku’ persona.
He would repeatedly tout BN's contributions to the local community while constantly poking fun at the federal government over the latter’s gaffes.
He was influential enough to attract attention from DAP's most recognisable leader Lim Kit Siang, who constantly warned voters that a win for BN in Cameron Highlands would mean a win for Najib.
Interestingly, despite Lim’s predictions, none of Umno's top leaders credited Najib for the win after the results were announced.
However, a source close to Najib said that the former premier received many congratulatory messages from friends and party members after BN’s win was confirmed.
Don ever forget before GE14 msia was at the verge of trickling down to zimbabwe and venezuela. The country has been deliberately brought to a state of no return, I am sure it is too obvious for all citizens to see. Therefore, before the GE 14 I would like to take this opportunity to address the sole person and or the most crucial person responsible for the future of the country. With due respect, dear Mahathir, before you breathe your last, I would like to thank you for developing the country for the past 22 years during your reign (albeit not as great as our neighbor Singapore), at the same time, you have been solely and or instrumentally causing the unchecked power in the ruling government that is now causing the descend of our beloved country into another Venezuela and or Zimbabwe. Wise people would know what to do, ditching the titanic before it is too late. Mahathir in his 22 yrs reign has transformed the country into a totalitarian state without check and balance, any opposition would first has to face intimidation by police forces that serve the master and not rakyat. 50years ago, we were the rising star, the Asian Tigers. 50years later we are at best, the Asian Cretin. Stunted in growth waiting for foreigners to lend us money
UMNO-PAS combo is potent in some areas. However, the potency in these 'some areas' is enough to help the combo to, based on a brief analysis of GE14 results, take at least three PH controlled states come the next GE, assuming the voting pattern remains unchanged. Besides, some of the parliamentary seats would fall too. Their appeal is mainly to the rural masses playing the racial and religious card. PH's loss at CH should be regarded as a blessing in disguise. Remember Teluk Intan's loss at the 2014's by- election? PH however came back strongly and regained TI in GE14. Go back to the drawing board. The next GE is still some four years away.
Doggy, your nick is very appropriate. You wag your tail while your BN boss sodomizes you
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