Anwar's Tambun gambit and Hawthorne effect

For decades, Tambun has been well-known for its sweet pomelos and limestone hills. In the coming weeks, however, it will rise to national prominence for being the site of a key political battle.

Incumbent Tambun MP and Bersatu deputy president Ahmad Faizal Azumu will be challenged by PKR president Anwar Ibrahim.

Analysts generally describe this move as risky for Anwar but the potential rewards are too hard to pass up.

Political scientist Wong Chin Huat explained that Anwar's candidacy in Tambun - a Malay-majority constituency south of Ipoh and considered an Umno stronghold - was a signal to voters that Harapan was serious about returning to power in Perak.

"Having the coalition's prime ministerial candidate to contest in Perak, Harapan sent a strong signal that Perak is a frontline state.

"Not only he would campaign more frequently in neighbouring constituencies, but the national attention he brings to Tambun and Perak would also produce the ‘Hawthorne effect’, that local voters feel that they are important and become more enthusiastic about the election and more likely voting for him.

"It may also produce the 'coattail effect', causing the support he enjoys to spill over to Harapan's state constituency candidates under Tambun and other candidates in Perak," he said.

The Hawthorne effect is a term used to describe a type of reactivity in which individuals adjust their behaviour as a result of being watched or observed.

This has been used to explain how Harapan managed to make inroads in Johor in 2018 only after fielding several national DAP leaders such as Lim Kit Siang to the state in 2013 to lay the groundwork first.

Universiti Malaya Centre for Democracy and Elections (Umcedel) research fellow Awang Azman Awang Pawi explained that Lim too was fielded as a candidate for the "risky" seat of Gelang Patah in 2013 and that strategy paid off eventually for Harapan.

For the same strategy to work in Perak, said Awang, Harapan coalition members DAP and Amanah will have to take similar risks.

"Anwar's move indeed sent a message to PKR and its allies. If Anwar, as the party president dared to take such a risk, why not his lieutenants and the leaders of the allies, including DAP and Amanah?

"One cannot make an omelette without breaking the eggs. Amanah president Mohamad Sabu or his deputy must also contest in a riskier seat," he said.

Charisma and stature

In 2018, the Tambun election was a three-way contest between BN, Harapan and PAS. Faizal won the seat for Harapan by polling only 44.5 percent of the vote while BN's Ahmad Husni Hanadzlah, the incumbent, polled a close second.

Prior to this, Husni managed to retain the seat for BN by polling 56.2 percent of the vote in 2013.

Even though past voting trends would suggest the odds are stacked against Anwar, political analyst Jeniri Amir believed Harapan and PKR had adequately assessed the risks involved.

He said having a candidate with Anwar's charisma and stature alone was capable of swinging votes.

"There is no way Harapan want the head of its leader to be chopped off by BN or PN.

"If that was so, that will be the end of Anwar's political career... I believe the voters there will vote for Anwar. They definitely don't want to kill a hero," Jeniri added.

Offering a more pessimistic take, political analyst Phoon Wing Keong did not believe that Anwar can swing the Malay vote needed to win in Tambun and Perak.

"He might stimulate the turnout of the Chinese voter and may boost the odds of winning some marginal state seats in Perak," he added.

"However, the three consecutive general elections since 2009 saw state government controlled by a political bloc that won with a marginal majority, therefore the state administration could not last until the full term.

"Opposition parties have always lacked a strong and prestigious Malay leadership in Perak," said Phoon.

Since 2008, Perak has seen four different menteris besar being appointed. The only one that lasted a full term was BN's Zambry Abdul Kadir (2013-2018).

Phoon cautioned that Harapan likely only obtained 10 percent of the Malay vote during the Johor election in March and thus the coalition's challenge for the Tambun gambit to pay off is to increase the turnout rate of Malay voters.

"Anwar's battle is not as easy as some imagine.

"With some of the veterans and familiar retiring and a lack of newcomers, there was a lack of public attention and heated discussion on the GE15. Anwar's move to shift electoral base to Perak may be a strategy to create heated discussion," he said.

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