Johor polls: MCA trumps DAP, Bersama loses deposits but deals damage, PN wiped out

The Johor state election is over, and one of the big losers is DAP.

While it won the most seats for Pakatan Harapan, six out of eight, it also lost four seats while PKR and Amanah retained one seat each.

This is the biggest decline among all parties that contested the election.

The outcome is despite relatively strong turnout, albeit not on par with the 15th general election.

DAP was even trumped by its rival MCA, which doubled its seat count from four to eight. This includes an Umno seat - Layang-Layang - which was returned to MCA after 22 years.

Of the four seats DAP lost, three - Jementah, Tangkak, and Johor Jaya - were picked up by MCA. Another DAP seat, Perling was lost to MIC.

Voting patterns suggest this was mostly due to a shift among voters who previously supported Perikatan Nasional, which did not contest 23 seats this time around. A Malaysiakini analysis had speculated that this decision was likely to benefit BN.

PN leaders had also instructed its supporters, almost all of whom are Malay-Muslims, to vote for BN parties, including MCA and MIC, in seats where the coalition did not field a candidate.

This suggests that MCA did not win because of a non-Malay swing towards BN.

This is supported by the fact that Harapan’s overall vote share increased from 26.4 percent to 32.6 percent, with DAP’s vote share increasing from 13 percent to 15.5 percent.

Despite this, non-Malays and disenchanted voters did deal a blow to DAP and Harapan in at least two seats.

Bersama factor and lost deposits

In Perling, Parti Bersama Malaysia managed to snag enough votes that could have helped Harapan eke out a close victory.

Bersama also dealt a blow to Harapan in Bukit Batu, where PKR lost to MIC by just 174 votes.

However, the kancil party's first electoral showing after the rebrand led by former ministers Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad was otherwise a bust.

Despite winning some votes, it was not able to retain its deposit in any of the seats it contested.

Other parties that failed to retain deposits include Muda, PSM, and Parti Orang Asli Malaysia.

Interestingly, PKR and Amanah also lost deposits in seven seats.

PKR lost deposits in Sri Medan, Tenggaroh, Johor Lama, and Tanjung Surat; while Amanah lost deposits in Semarang, Sedili, and Penawar.

Impact of Bersatu, PAS break-up

However, the biggest loser in the Johor polls was PN which lost the three seats it previously held and was completely wiped out.

Voting patterns suggest that the split within PN was a major factor behind this defeat, with PAS and Bersatu supporters not voting for the other party’s candidates in the seats they contested.

This was reflected in a drop in vote shares across all seats PN contested compared with the last state election when turnout was lower.

To add insult to injury, the third biggest coalition in the country also lost deposits in 19 out of 33 seats it contested.

Bersatu lost deposits in the most seats at 10, followed by PAS (four), MIPP (four), and Pejuang (one).

Observers have said that the results of the Johor election could portend the outcome in the Negeri Sembilan polls, which are due on Aug 01.

In that state, Harapan had won 17 out of 36 seats in the 2023 state election while BN holds 14 and PN five.

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