Johor polls: PN's seat strategy a boon for BN

Perikatan Nasional’s decision to forego contesting 23 seats in the upcoming Johor polls would likely benefit the incumbent BN coalition, according to an analysis of past voting patterns.

Of those 23 seats, 13 are held by BN, nine by Pakatan Harapan, and one by Muda.

PAS, which currently controls PN, has confirmed previously that it had been in talks with Umno to form an electoral pact to avoid multi-cornered fights in the state election.

The Islamist party has always made clear its intentions to work with Umno again through the Muafakat Nasional platform, although the latter had rebuffed these overtures.

Past analyses indicate that PN and BN draw almost all of their support from Malay-Muslim voters, and when they both compete against each other, the split tends to benefit a third contender, such as Harapan.

A closer look at the seats PN is not contesting reveals that some of them, especially the ones held by Harapan, were won by slim majorities in the March 2022 state polls.

These seats held by Harapan are Tangkak, Bentayan, Penggaram, Mengkibol, Perling, Skudai, Bukit Batu, Senai, and Johor Jaya.

For example, in Johor Jaya, Harapan won the seat by 1,922 votes, defeating candidates from BN, PN, and Warisan.

Should the clash this time be one-on-one between Harapan and BN, it could allow BN to entice PN supporters to vote for its candidate, thus potentially defeating Harapan.

In 2022, PN managed to obtain more than 8,300 votes in the constituency, which could now go to BN.

The same could be said of Perling, which Harapan won by garnering more than 18,600 votes in 2022. During that contest, the combined votes from BN (15,281) and PN (8,829) would have been 24,110.

In Puteri Wangsa, Muda, with Harapan’s backing, won with over 22,800 votes. Ballots for BN and PN totalled more than 24,600.

Other Harapan seats, such as Bukit Batu (won by 137 votes) and Tangkak (372), could be ripe for BN to capture, provided it could attract PN voters. In 2022, BN received the second-highest number of votes in these areas.

The other Harapan seats, such as Senai, Skudai, Mengkibol, Penggaram, and Bentayan, were won with large majorities – between over 5,000 and 13,000 votes.

But even if Harapan were to retain those seats, the coalition would still be far from getting the 28 constituencies it needs to form the next state government.

ALSO READ: Behind the narrative: Why 25 Johor BN seats are actually at risk

PN’s decision not to contest 13 seats held by BN would also make it easier for the latter to defend these constituencies against Harapan.

These are Buloh Kasap, Bekok, Yong Peng, Parit Yaani, Machap, Tanjung Surat, Larkin, Kempas, Benut, Pulai Sebatang, Pekan Nanas, Kukup, and Mahkota.

‘No failure in politics’

Last night, PN announced that it will contest 33 of the 56-seat state legislature, with PAS getting 11 seats, Bersatu (16), MIPP (five), and Pejuang (one).

When approached for comments after announcing the candidates, PN chairperson Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar admitted there were talks with Umno but declined to provide any details.

“I feel what is important now is that we move forward starting today; if we are to count the previous discussions, there were various discussions.

“Not just with Umno, (but) with all parties. So, I feel I will not prolong that because what is important now is how we move, starting today, because the challenge ahead is bigger compared to what we have gone through.”

He also refuted suggestions that the talks with Umno had failed.

“While some parties see it as a failure, maybe there is actually a silver lining behind it, and maybe it will create something better in the future.

“So there is no such thing as failure in politics,” said the Terengganu menteri besar.

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