analysis Will election history repeat itself for the MCA in the 12th national polls on March 8? This may not exactly be a burning question but it is a natural one for active voters who remember keen battles of the past.

In the 1986 general election, the great loser was the MCA. The opposition DAP won 24 parliamentary and 37 state seats, mainly on Chinese votes.

Most of the seats lost by the Barisan Nasional (BN) were contested by the MCA. The party lost 50 percent of contested seats, winning only 17 of the 32 parliamentary seats and 43 of the 69 state seats.

mca and penang and election 120208 MCA had, however, reached its nadir much earlier, in 1969, when it lost control of the Penang government, and was almost decimated in Perak and elsewhere. Of the 33 parliamentary seats contested, the party won only 13. Of the 83 state seats contested, only 28 went to MCA.

The political post-mortem after the 1986 polls pointed out the ‘anti-establishment mood’ of the electorate, fueled by economic recession, job losses and negative reaction to deviations in implementing the New Economic Policy.

Some blamed the re-delineation exercise conducted before the 1986 polls. Some in MCA perceived the new boundaries to be stacked against them due to the reduction of mixed constituencies. There was also a higher concentration of Chinese voters in many urban seats particularly in Penang, the Kinta Valley in Perak and the Klang Valley (Kuala Lumpur/Selangor).

Within the MCA, an analysis identified that the poor showing was due to wrong choice of candidates in certain seats, internal factionalism and conflicts, and poor grassroots organisation in some areas.

Consequently over the years, a tremendous effort was undertaken towards organisational reform to keep abreast with voters’ thinking.

Since then, however, the national political landscape has undergone leadership change, and the electorate mindset has become more intellectual, more sophisticated, more demanding, and much more aware of principles of governance.

Voters are more able to discern and differentiate between what is ‘good’ and ‘bad’ forms of leadership. Admittedly, there is much room for political maturity and awareness on the importance of building a civil society and to bridge the gap between urban and rural voters.

MCA better prepared

Will there be a repeat of 1986 for MCA and BN this time around? Many political observers think not.

This is due both to the factors stacked against the opposition coalition and the factors in favour of BN - its well-oiled election machinery; the imperfect electoral rolls; funds for component parties; and unfair election practices.

Opposition parties are handicapped in disseminating electoral information and news compared to the mighty BN network, which controls major newspapers and broadcast media.

internet media and print media Perhaps the only consolation for opposition parties is that the urban electorate has better access to information technology and therefore, to blogs, email and SMS facilities, to get their messages across.

MCA leaders, though, are fully aware of such changes and have improved engagement with the electorate through use of modern communication technology. The headquarters will send text-messages to thousands of voters and members. Puppet ‘blogs’ have been set up to influence urban voters on party issues and to court support.

However, it will not be plain sailing.

A survey conducted last year indicated that two in three Chinese Malaysian voters are likely to vote for opposition parties in the upcoming elections. Particularly among urban Chinese voters, disillusionment and grievances prevail over bread-and-butter issues arising from the escalating cost of living, presence of illegal immigrants, and reduced business opportunities, among others.

Since last November, another critical ‘swing factor’ has emerged as a result of the government’s uncompromising response and treatment of issues raised by the Hindu Rights Action Force (Hindraf).

This will add to complexity in the mixed seats that MCA contests, for it can no longer take Indian Malaysian votes for granted.

Perak seats to watch

In terms of candidacy, perhaps it is the first time in MCA’s election history that a ‘cleansing’ process has been carried out - about 12 incumbents in parliamentary seats and 22 at state level have been dropped from the nomination list.

Attention is firmly fixed on seats in Perak. In 2004, MCA contested seven parliamentary seats, including Kampar, Gopeng, Lumut and Tanjong Malim, and lost three (Ipoh Timor, Ipoh Barat and Batu Gajah) to DAP. The opposition party also took the state seats of Pasir Pinji, Jelapang, Menglembu, Pantai Remis, Keranji and Setiawan.

Only three seats in Perak can be considered ‘safe’ for MCA, as it had chalked up a majority ranging from 10,000-15,000 votes in 2004 - Gopeng (14,782), Tanjong Malim (14,693) and Lumut (11,614).

Ipoh Barat, which went to DAP with a marginal vote of 598, may offer hope for recapture by the BN.

ong ka chuan and mca On polling day, the performance of Perak MCA spearheaded by Ong Ka Chuan ( photo , secretary-general and brother of president Ong Ka Ting) will be keenly watched, particularly by party members in the state.

It is speculated that Ka Chuan will contest the safe federal seat of Tanjong Malim, replacing former deputy minister Loke Yuen Yow.

Ka Chuan, who is expected to be made a deputy minister or minister if he wins, was defeated by DAP’s Fong Po Kuan in the Batu Gajah parliamentary seat in 2004.

But will there be a ‘Fong factor’ ahead in Batu Gajah? Yesterday, she announced her withdrawal from the elections, apparently in response to the central leadership’s decision to relocate her to a parliamentary seat in Johor. This is an illustration of the unpredictability of internal politicking.

Another parliamentary seat to watch is Gopeng, held by Dr Ting Chew Peh (former MCA secretary-general and one-time housing and local government minister).

mca youth assembly 260806 ling hee leong Despite speculation that Ling Hee Leong ( photo , eldest son of former party president Dr Ling Liong Sik) may be offered a state seat instead of a parliamentary seat, recent developments pointed favourably to Ling Junior replacing Ting.

MCA may be vulnerable to prevailing communal sentiments in parliamentary seats in Perak where Indian Malaysians make up more than 10 percent of the voters.

Based on the 2004 profile, the parliamentary seats that could be affected are Tanjong Malim (32.3%), Lumut (11.1%), Kampar and Batu Gajah. State seats include Buntong (45.3%), Jelapang (18.5%), Pantai Remis (14.5%) and others that yielded marginal victories, such as Keranji (9.5%).