GE13 WATCH With the anti-Lynas drive becoming a national movement since its first protest on Mother's Day in 2011, political pundits believe the rare earths refinery may be a crucial, if not the top concern, of voters in Kuantan and in Pahang overall.

However, the reality could well be way off what the pundits predict.

NONE Local leaders of both BN and Pakatan Rakyat say the voters in Kuantan and Indera Mahkota, who live in the vicinity of the Lynas rare earths plant in Gebeng, do not particularly consider the refinery to be their main issue.

The reason is that the anti-Lynas NGOs, whether Save Malaysia Stop Lynas or the more prominent Himpunan Hijau, have not been able to effectively convey the environmental and health safety concerns to the Malay voters.

According to 2011 figures, Malays constituted 60.7 percent and 64.36 percent of the voters in the urbanised Kuantan and Indera Mahkota parliamentary constituencies respectively.

Indera Mahkota PAS deputy chief Andansura Rabu admitted to Malaysiakini that unlike the Chinese voters, many Malays do not see the Lynas Advanced Materials Plant (Lamp) as a health hazard.

NONE "I would say half of the Malays in Beserah (a sea-side town on the outskirts of Kuantan) support Lynas and the remaining half don't... Many really don't see Lamp to be a major problem," said Andansura, who chairs an anti-Lynas NGO called Badan Bertindak Anti-Rare Earths.

Despite an anti-Lynas 'occupy movement' having taken place at Balok in Beserah in June last year, the reaction from the local Malays was rather lukewarm, as only some 1,000 of them were present at the event .

Although the Lynas plant is just 7.5km away from Balok, there were more outsiders than locals at the protest.

Malay media more pro-government

Merdeka Centre for Opinion Research director Ibrahim Suffian told Malaysiakini that compared with their Chinese counterparts, the Malay anti-Lynas NGOs were less aggressive in promoting their agenda.

Apart from that, Ibrahim noted, coverage of the issue by the Malay media was clearly more favourable to the government, and this had made a lot of Malays unaware of the harmful side effects of the Lynas plant.

The government has repeatedly given its assurance to the people that thorium wastes from the plant are within safety limits.

NONE "Having many of their relatives working with the public sector, the Malays also rely heavily on the government for information (on Lynas)."

As such, Ibrahim added, the anti-Lynas sentiments among the Malays were far lower, when compared with the Chinese residents.

However, a Kuantan Umno leader disagreed with Ibrahim's opinion, saying the local Chinese were "warming up" to Lynas plant.

"More so with Lynas bringing upstream investments to the Malaysia-China Kuantan Industrial Park," the leader, who did not want to be named, told Malaysiakini .

Nevertheless, Kuantan MP Fuziah Salleh remains optimistic that the Lynas plant is a "significant issue of concern" to both Malay and Chinese voters.

However, Fuziah still sees livelihood concerns to be of a larger issue than the Lynas refinery.

"The voters will consider bread-and-butter issues first, as I have learnt in my service to the people. I have been in touch with the locals since 1999," added the Kuantan PKR chief, who is one of the leaders of the anti-Lynas campaign.

Until 2008, Kuantan a safe MCA seat

Bordering the South China Sea, the Pahang state capital of Kuantan is famous for its beach resort of Teluk Chempedak and salted fish.

The constituency has always been a safe BN seat - until the last general election.

NONE Fuziah sank two-term MP Fu Ah Kiow of the MCA, who was then deputy internal security minister, by 1,826 votes.

She garnered 18,398 votes against Fu's 16,752 and it is widely believed that Fuziah had benefited from an internal dispute within the MCA.

This is said to have been sparked by the dropping of three-term Teruntum assemblyperson, Ti Lian Ker, as the candidate just two days before nomination day.

The Ti faction was said to have voted against Fu, resulting in his defeat by Fuziah, as well as the narrow win of the new MCA face for Teruntum, Chang Hong Seong.

Despite the unlikelihood of a similar MCA internal sabotage taking place during the coming general election, Fuziah is confident she will retain her seat.

azlan The feisty MP attributed this to her consistent work and her determination in solving the local problems of her constituency.

Whoever the MCA candidate is, she said, will not deter her as one key factor was that most of the Chinese voters in Kuantan were with her on the Lynas issue.

There is also a chance, though, that Fuziah may face a candidate from Umno, instead of the MCA.

A senior Kuantan MCA leader conceded that compared with his party, Umno would stand a better chance of taking back the Malay-majority parliamentary seat for the BN.

However a Kuantan Umno leader, who also did not want to be named, conceded that Fuziah was "a tough person" to beat in the battle for Kuantan.

"Fuziah goes to the ground and is aggressive... I will give BN only a 50-50 chance of taking Kuantan back," he told Malaysiakini .

Umno sets eyes on Indera Mahkota

However, the Umno leader expressed confidence in BN wresting the neighbouring seat of Indera Mahkota from Fuziah's colleague.

azlan "The MP, Azan Ismail, does not tunjuk muka (show up) in the constituency. I would say BN has a 60 percent chance of taking back the seat."

He said the state Umno may have fielded "the wrong candidate" in Indera Mahkota the last time, and that this would not happen in the coming election.

Sharing the view of the Umno leader were several local PKR leaders, who told Malaysiakini that Azan was not fully committed to serving his constituency.

Azan took over as MP after trashing Salamon Ali Rizal Abdul Rahman of Umno by a slim majority of 1,027 votes. He obtained 19,823 votes against Salamon's 18,796. Being Pahang's new administrative centre, Indera Mahkota is home to many civil servants.

The sole naval base on the east coast of the peninsula, in Tanjung Gelang, is also located in the Indera Mahkota constituency.

Azan, who resigned as Pahang PKR deputy chairperson, is currently chairperson of neighbouring Terengganu PKR. It is widely expected that he will not defend his seat and will instead concentrate on his political career in Terengganu.

LU WEI HOONG is a member of the Malaysiakini team.