GE13 WATCH With the general election expected to be called within weeks, Pakatan Rakyat’s seat negotiations have been hit with yet another delay.

NONE This time, PKR deputy president Azmin Ali ( left ) admitted to daily The Star on March 7, “minor adjustments” needed to be made in Sabah because of the hostilities in the state’s east coast.

However, even before the Lahad Datu standoff, public bickering among the opposition parties in Sabah had already raised questions as to whether the winds of change would blow into the 'Land Below the Wind'.

While players in the spat differ, standing in the way of opposition unity in the Borneo state is the mainstay of Sabah politics - local autonomy versus the alleged imposition by a ‘Malayan’ party.

In the 'local autonomy for Sabah' corner are Chinese-led SAPP and Kadazandusun Murut-led Star Reform Party (Star), while the ‘outsider’ is in the form of Pakatan anchor member PKR.

azlan With Star’s ultra-Borneo stance barring its cooperation with Pakatan, the seat negotiations punch-up is between SAPP and PKR. However, SAPP is still trying to have a foot in both corners.

“When it comes to inter-party discussions, we talk about Sabah autonomy. Every party has its principles. For example, PSM has a socialist cause. Our cause is autonomy.

“Pakatan's cause is to capture Putrajaya. You don’t need state seats for Putrajaya. Give and take a few exceptions. They can contest the parliamentary seats and let the local parties contest state seats,” SAPP chief Yong Teck Lee told Malaysiakini .

Simple formula

In 2008, multi-cornered fights saw BN win several state seats with slim majorities.

In the state seat of Kapayan , for example, the ruling coalition won despite receiving more than 1,000 votes less than the DAP and PKR candidates combined.

As a result, BN was defeated in only one constituency in the 60-seat state assembly, and lost only one out of the 25 Sabah parliamentary constituencies.

These are the odds that earned the state the moniker "BN's fixed deposit".

azlan However, this lesson seems to be lost on the opposition.

With just weeks left to the general election, the SAPP is still insisting on contesting “simple majority” seats, while PKR is pointing out that there is nothing simple about the ‘simple majority formula’.

For starters, PKR appears not only to be negotiating for the Pakatan parties but also for the new kids on the block - the NGOs Angkatan Perubahan Sabah (APS) and Pertubuhan Pakatan Perubahan Sabah (PPPS).

APS is led by a former deputy chief of BN coalition member Upko, Wilfred Bumburing, while PPPS is headed by former federal deputy minister Lajim Ukin.

Both left BN in the middle of last year and declared themselves allies of Pakatan.

tian chua kampung railway residents protest 3 PKR vice-president Tian Chua ( right ) said the inclusion of the NGOs into Sabah’s crowded political scene means that all parties must be “psychologically prepared” to contest less than 10 state seats each.

His simple arithmetic has, however, rubbed SAPP the wrong way.

“We have to accommodate APS. They left BN (for the opposition cause). We have to accommodate Lajim’s PPPS and so many people like Ibrahim Menudin, PAS, DAP and SAPP. Too many,” Tian Chua said.

But these NGOs, despite espousing the Sabah-by-and-for-Sabahans ideal, will be contesting on the PKR ticket and therein lies the rub.

“If (the NGOs) contest on the PKR ticket, then they will come under PKR,” Yong said.

SAPP not as strong as it thinks

However, Kota Kinabalu-based political scientist Arnold Puyok, feels that all the stress may be for nothing.

azlan “PKR has nothing to lose (if negotiations break down) as SAPP’s support is not widespread,” Arnold said, conceding that some areas may result in a split in the opposition votes, which would be to BN’s advantage.

He said SAPP’s support base was made up of the urban Chinese urban votes, much of which has been “eaten up” by the DAP. Yong’s track record too does not inspire much confidence.

In the 2010 Batu Sapi election, Yong bagged only 2,031 votes, the lowest in a three-cornered fight against BN’s Linda Tsen and PKR’s Ansari Abdullah. DAP did not contest but contributed heavily to PKR through its machinery.

Arnold added that mistrust within the Sabah political scene would also undermine attempts at cooperation. Indeed, Sabah's political history is peppered with defections, like those in 1994 that toppled the Berjaya government and put the BN in power.

While recent defections have been to Pakatan, former Sabah PKR chief and now Star chief Jeffrey Kitingan’s campaign against Pakatan and its allies is a constant reminder of what could take place.

This, and Yong’s admission that SAPP is also “in discussions” with Star, could also be cause for alarm.

Jeffrey fills the vacuum

NONE The altogether political maverick Jeffrey ( right ) has been actively campaigning against Pakatan and is gaining more ground than expected in the Kadazandusun Murut areas, Arnold said. This is particularly evident in Keningau and Tambunan .

Armed with slideshows and the Sabah autonomy battlecry, Jeffrey has been observed to be feeding the vacuum left by a lack of strong Kadazandusun Murut leaders. This includes the relative silence of his brother and PBS president Pairin Kitingan.

Arnold said the indigenous communities of Sabah have much to be “angry” about - from the federal government’s stand against the use of the word 'Allah' by Christians to the loss of their majority claim on Sabah following the influx of immigrants who have been made citizens.

“Evidence from the proceedings of the royal commission of inquiry (on illegal migrants in Sabah), for example, is making them very angry.

“This includes the younger Kadazandusun Murut, who now see Jeffrey as the new Huguan Siou,” Arnold said, referring to the title reserved for the community’s paramount leader. The title is now officially held by Pairin.

But without cooperating with the other opposition parties, the lecturer said, neither SAPP nor Star could make a real dent into BN’s fort. However, this may not be their aim.

azlan “Like SAPP, Star’s agenda is to emerge as a third force... aiming for the power of leverage. If there is no clear winner, nationally, SAPP and Star will play the kingmaker role and make demands.”

In the PKR camp, the entrance of Lajim and Bumburing’s NGOs may boost support for Pakatan in Beaufort and Tuaran , but this situation too is being met with some suspicions by the coalition's supporters.

Despite risking internal sabotage on this front, Arnold believes, PKR will dig its heels when faced with SAPP’s demands.

“PKR has no choice but to accede to the demands of its members to contest, in order to avoid sabotage,” he said.

AIDILA RAZAK is a member of the Malaysiakini team.