PERAK ANALYSIS Still fresh in the minds of many Chinese voters in Perak is the dramatic putsch in 2009.

However, still in the minds of many Malay voters in the state is the memory of being under a Chinese-dominated government for 11 months.

Thus, ironically, the DAP's triumph in 2008 - winning all 18 state seats it contested - is hampering the state Pakatan Rakyat's chances with the Malay electorate, making up slightly over 50 percent of voters in the state.

Perak Pakatan leaders told Malaysiakin i that the game plan now is to secure at least 43 percent of the Malay votes, 75 percent and 40 percent of the Chinese and Indian votes respectively to achieve a simple majority, but that is a very tall order.

NONE Perak PAS election director Asmuni Awi ( left ) told Malaysiakini that the three parties had successfully garnered 45 percent of the Malay votes, along with 65 percent and 60 percent of the Chinese and Indian votes respectively.

It is evident that since the 2009 debacle, Malay votes for Perak Pakatan had been on the decline, as seen during the Bukit Gantang by-election.

With a relatively controversy-free four years of BN rule in Perak under Zambry Abdul Kadir, the general consensus is that Pakatan's support among Malay voters has slid even lower now.

Initially, according to Perak PKR sources, the plan was to have their head, Anwar Ibrahim, lead the charge by fielding him somewhere in the silver state, to show that a prominent Malay leader was in charge of Perak Pakatan.

Anwar rooted to Permatang Pauh by supporters

That plan was jettisoned when Permatang Pauh voters refused to let him leave.

NONE Nevertheless, Anwar had made Perak his first stop of the campaign period, touring mostly Malay majority areas, many won by the BN with a slim majority.

"All it takes is a slight swing, and we will be able to win those seats," said the PKR source.

And should Perak Pakatan maintain the current support of the Malay voters, and hit the magic number of 40 percent Malay new voters - assuming that it secures 70 percent of the Chinese votes and 50 percent of the Indian votes - it should win 10 marginal seats to have a two-thirds majority in the state assembly.

The seats are Titi Serong, Trong, Kamunting, Alor Pongsu, Kubu Gajah, Manjoi, Pengkalan Baru, Rungkup, Selama and Sungai Rapat. These are all the seats where Malay electorate consist of at least 59 percent.

Two-thirds is thus Perak Pakatan's new message to the Malay masses - since DAP can only win 18 seats, at most, in the 59-seat assembly, it is up to the Malay voters to pad up the rest in a Pakatan government.

"The idea is to allay fears that a Pakatan government is a ‘Chinese government'," said a PKR source.

More importantly, said Asmuni, Perak Pakatan wants to reassure voters that the debacle that they saw in 2009 - involving three of Pakatan's state assemblypersons switching sides - a big majority will prevent a repetition.

Logistics a big Pakatan problem

All said and done, Perak Pakatan's logistical problems are still hampering efforts to bring their message and policies to the Malay masses spread throughout the vast hinterland of the state.

"It's tough trying to teach them why we need to ‘Ubah (change) because many of them still rely on BN-controlled media for information. It's difficult to compete," PAS Bukit Gantang parliamentary seat candidate Idris Ahmad admitted.

Perak PKR has also notably the weakest campaign machinery of the three component parties and will need PAS to share their burden in many Malay seats the former is contesting in.

One PKR campaign worker had told Malaysiakini that during Anwar's ceramah in Changkat Jering on Sunday, many of her branch members turned up for the event just to see their leader, but were not involved in active campaigning.

Futhermore, a Pakatan leader said that Perak Pakatan is unable to predict the voting pattern of the young Malay voters.

According to the by-elections held after 2008, there was a significant rise in the number of young voters favouring the BN at the ballot box.

With the ‘mother of all the general elections' entering the second half, it'll be interesting to see how both sides go about winning over the Malay voter's heart.