NEGRI SEMBILAN Before the nomination day on April 20, Negri Sembilan was seen as a crucial battleground with BN and Pakatan Rakyat evenly matched out as they attempt to form a simple majority for the state government, which has 36 legislative assembly seats.

NONE Having won only two state seats in the year 2004, Pakatan improved significantly in 2008, making inroads to win 15 state seats, thus denying BN a customary two-thirds majority in the state assembly.

They need to add four more state seats to their current tally to form a simple majority, but questions remain as to whether Pakatan would be able to continue its momentum from where it left off in 2008 and take over the state.

Pakatan had previously been eyeing five state seats where BN won by a small majority- Klawang (841 votes), Pilah (1,258 votes), Lenggeng (1,285 votes), Johol (1,263 votes), and Labu (1,405 votes).

They had also been targeting Jeram Padang and Linggi state seats, where BN's majority margin was halved from the 2004 results.

However, after nomination day and two weeks of campaigning, current ground reading indicates that BN might still maintain its hold of the state government and also parliamentary seats.

This is also expected to include the seats Pakatan have been eyeing, with the possible exception of Lenggeng.

However, BN may still pay a price despite a potential win, as it is expected to lose one or two state seats to Pakatan.

Playing on issue of Malay dominance

NONE Realising that all these state seats are Malay-majority seats, BN had devised a grassroots-based campaign strategy where they focus on the issue of prolonging the Malay political dominance and the fate of the Malays.

This is clearly visible through their small-scale ceramah, which stress on the theme of a BN government being one that will uphold Islamic values and ensure political power remains in the hands of the Malays.

Handouts such as Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia (BR1M) and the Baucer Buku 1Malaysia also have had their impacts in returning the support of rural Malays to the BN fold.

In the case of Lenggeng, however, the rejection of Umno members towards the nomination of Umno Seremban division chief Ishak Ismail is believed to have weakened party machinery and has opened up an opportunity for PAS to win the seat.

Malaysiakini 's visit to Lenggeng showed that Ishak's posters are much less visible compared to PAS flags, banners and candidate posters.

Apart from that, independent candidate Zulkifli Abdullah's ( above ) "BN-friendly" stance could also potentially split BN's votes in the area.

Apart from Lenggeng, BN also risks losing the Chennah state seat.

Chennah was won by BN with a 1,298 majority in 2008, but it now faces stiff competition from DAP.

NONE DAP has fielded one of Negri Sembilan DAP's stalwarts there in the form of Anthony Loke ( left ), the former Lobak state assemblyperson and Rasah MP.

Chennah is a Chinese-majority seat (50.8 percent), and Loke is seen to have a relatively easy route while facing off with BN's new candidate, Siow Foo Wen.

The national-level BN campaign based on the theme of peace, stability, and unity are not seen as solutions to the Chinese community's issues of equal opportunity in business, education and employment.

BN targeting four state seats

BN, however, is targeting four state seats which were won by Pakatan with slim majorities- Ampangan (165 votes), Sikamat (499 votes), Repah (533 votes) and Port Dickson (733 votes), in order to retain its two-thirds majority in the state assembly.

In Ampangan, BN is fielding Abu Ubaidah Redza, a new face who is considered still 'clean' and has a strong religious background.

However, his background of being a former meat trader is seen to pale in comparison to his opponent, Kamarul Bahrin of PKR.

Kamarul's campaign however is seen getting a lukewarm response from supporters of another party personality who allegedly closed his operations after finding out that he was not nominated for the seat.

NONE In Sikamat, PKR's incumbent Aminuddin Harun face stiff competition from a greenhorn from BN and a leader of youth movement, Wan Salwati Abdullah.

However, rumours are rife that Wan Salwati's camp will be affected by acts of sabotage on polling day from Ishak's followers.

Ishak ( right ) is believed to have eyed Sikamat before he was given Lenggeng to contest.

As such, Ampangan and Sikamat are both being seen as 50-50 seats for either parties.

Chinese to stay with DAP

Meanwhile, Repah is expected to remain with DAP due to the presence of Independent candidate Fadzil A Bakar, who is a former Umno member and could split votes intended for DAP's candidate S Veerapan.

Fadzil, who is popular among the locals, is expected to pull in some Malay votes but Repah is a Chinese-majority area, and the Chinese are expected to stay with DAP.

In a parliamentary level, Chinese and Malay voters from urban areas are expected to continue supporting Pakatan to enable them to keep hold of Rasah and Seremban parliamentary seats.

If the presence of tens of thousands of supporters in three major Pakatan rallies in the state can be used as a measure, the coalition can be confident with potential wins at some parliamentary seats.

However, five rural parliamentary seats with a majority of Malay voters, Jelebu , Jempol , Kuala Pilah , Tampin , and Rembau - are all expected to stay with BN.

NONE PAS is fielding singer Aishah against Felda Global Venture chairperson Isa Samad ( left in photo ) in Jempol, but her campaign has been riddled with difficulties as many Jempol voters are actually Felda settlers from the Felda Raja Alias programme.

Teluk Kemang , which has a balanced racial composition (Malays 42.35 percent, Chinese 33.18 percent, and Indians 21.41 percent) is seen as a perfect recipe for incumbent Kamarul Baharin of PKR to win the seat for a second term.

The situation shows that BN will remain popular in the outskirts which has a Malay majority while Pakatan will remain popular in urban areas and areas with a balanced racial composition.