ANALYSIS As the dust settles on the Bersih 4 rally, the focus is on whether a motion of no-confidence will be tabled in the October parliament sitting.

The call was made at the mammoth rally last weekend, with several opposition leaders and former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad backing this is as a way to get rid of scandal-hit premier Najib Abdul Razak.

However, the newly appointed Minister in the Prime Minister's Department Azalina Othman Said yesterday brushed off the suggestion, saying that a no-confidence vote would not happen in Malaysia.

From a strictly legal perspective, the parliamentary affairs minister may be right; the no-confidence vote is not codified here, even though Malaysia follows the Westminster system.

In contrast, the United Kingdom, where the Westminster system was born, has formulated the procedures for a no-confidence vote on the prime minister through the Fixed Term Parliament Act four years ago.

A motion of no confidence

How then can a sitting prime minister be removed from office in Malaysia?

Although the procedures are not established as such, MPs can theoretically still table a no-confidence motion against the PM by using the standard procedures for a normal and emergency motion.

The Parliamentary Standing Order stipulates that to table a normal motion, an MP must notify the House no less than 14 days before it is to appear on the Order Paper. The Order Paper is a document which stipulates the agenda for each sitting.

However, the Standing Order also notes that government business is given priority against others in the august house.

In other words, the no-confidence motion would likely sit idle in the order paper should the government go against it by tabling other issues.

An example of this is the motion to amend a law to pave the way for the implementaton of hudud.

The private member’s bill by PAS president and Marang MP Abdul Hadi Awang (photo) was included in the Order Paper in the March and May sessions, but never made it beyond that.

Slimmer chance via emergency motion

The chances are even slimmer if the no-confidence motion is brought as an emergency motion.

While MPs only need to give 24 hours’ notice for an emergency motion, the chances of it being approved by the speaker is slim.

Unless it is definite, urgent, and serves public interest, the speaker can block the emergency motion from being debated.

Even if the emergency motion is approved by the speaker, the MPs could only debate on it but no vote is allowed, thus rendering the motion pointless.

For both normal and emergency motions, Dewan Rakyat speaker Pandikar Amin Mulia has the final say on granting leave for the motions to be tabled in the House.

During his tenure for the past seven years, Pandikar has strictly prioritised government interest ahead of other non-government business.

Defeating the budget

Should the motion method face a dead end, anti-Najib forces may consider concentrating on defeating the budget, which will then cut off funds to the administration.

By parliamentary convention, a loss of supply is a vote of no-confidence against the ruling government.

This almost happened on Dec 15, 2009, when Opposition MPs ambushed the BN government during the passage of the 2010 Supply Bill.

With the bill on the brink of defeat, Najib and other BN ministers had to excuse themselves from a function and rush to the Parliament house to safeguard the budget.

The Budget was approved with a razor-thin one and three votes at committee stage and third reading, respectively.

Speaker Pandikar (photo) then scolded the Opposition bench for taking advantage of the government MPs’ absence, labeling them as "dishonourable" and "not gentlemenly".

A repeat of the tactic may be ineffective as the ruling coalition now ensures they have enough MPs on the ground for crucial votes, like the recent vote on anti-terror laws.

Najib, in his capacity as finance minister, will table 2016 Budget on Oct 23.

Anti-Najib forces may try their luck on Nov 16, which is when the policy stage debate is expected to be completed.

There might be another snag, however, if a bloc vote is called instead of a voice vote. BN MPs who may want to vote against the Budget will be unlikely to do so in a bloc vote because they could be identified for it.

Those who fear backlash or peer pressure may then instead prefer to abstain by being absent during the vote.

Statutory Declaration method

Anti-Najib forces can also gather sufficient votes of no-confidence outside of Parliament through statutory declarations, which could then be shown to the Agong as evidence that Najib has lost confidence of the House.

The Agong, as stipulated under Section 43(2)(a) of the Federal Constitution, then appoints a prime minister who commands the confidence of the MPs.

Last month, Deputy Prime Minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi (photo) claimed that an Umno leader was trying to " topple the government " by getting MPs from both sides of the divide to sign a seven-page statutory declaration.

Even if the SD method is successful, it is not without controversy.

During the Perak coup in 2009, BN secured three Pakatan Rakyat assemblyperson defections and presented them to the late Sultan Azlan Shah as proof that the sitting MB has lost the confidence of the state assembly.

The silver state’s monarch was satisfied and sacked Pakatan menteri besar Nizar Jamaluddin and replaced him with BN’s Zambry Abdul Kadir.

It remained controversial because BN did not go through the state assembly to call for a vote of no-confidence and was accused of garnering a "back-door majority".

The coup triggered a constitutional crisis, with Pakatan assemblypersons demanding the dissolution of the state assembly, to no avail.

The matter was brought to court and the Federal Court declared the BN-led Perak government legal.