ANALYSIS Mukhriz Mahathir will now need to carefully plan his counter move after forces loyal to Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak made public their intention to oust him as Kedah menteri besar.

The very public announcement that the state Umno leadership has lost confidence in Mukhriz is an indication that his opponents hope to remove him internally within Umno instead of going through the state assembly.

However, if Mukhriz refuses to resign, Umno in Kedah may find itself in the exact same situation as PKR faced in 2014 when it tried to replace then Selangor menteri besar Khalid Ibrahim who refused to budge.

This will bring the state assembly and monarch into play, which will complicate things for Najib's loyalist seeking a swift resolution to the crisis.

It will ultimately boil down to three scenarios, which will be determined by Mukhriz's level of support in the state assembly, his influence with the monarch or willingness to call for snap polls.

Scenario 1: State assembly rumble

At present BN's 21-seats in the state assembly comprise 19 Umno and two MCA representatives while the opposition's 15 seats comprise eight PAS, four PKR, two DAP and one Amanah representatives.

It is unlikely that the opposition can take over, even in the event of defections, due to its fractured situation.

Mukhriz is also unlikely to form a coalition government with the opposition as it will ruin his chances or any possible future comeback in Umno.

However, the opposition may emulate Umno during the Selangor menteri besar crisis, by deliberately pledging support to Mukhriz to give Umno a hard time in replacing the Kedah menteri besar.

This means Mukhriz will only need to secure three more state assemblypersons from BN, which including himself, will give him the 19-seat majority needed in the house to remain menteri besar.

While Umno's present cordial relationship with PAS may sway the party in Najib’s camp’s favour, it would be in the opposition's interest to stall Umno's bid to remove Mukhriz as a protracted crisis will erode the ruling coalition's support in the state.

However, Najib's Umno could make a quip-pro-quo offer to PAS at the federal level in exchange for help in removing Mukhriz, such as making concessions for the implementation of hudud in Kelantan.

If PAS throws its support behind Najib, then Mukhriz faces an uphill task to get the state assembly on his side.

Scenario 2: Palace decision

Kedah Sultan Abdul Halim Mu'adzam Shah is presently the Yang Di-Pertuan Agong and state matters are being handled by his regency council, which is chaired by Tunku Sallehuddin.

However, Sultan Abdul Halim, who as Agong has been said to steer clear of the controversies plaguing Putrajaya, will undoubtedly have the final say.

The Federal Court ruling on the 2009 Perak constitutional crisis has set a precedent where the state assembly can be bypassed, allowing the state's monarch to determine whether a menteri besar has majority support.

This route will mean intense lobbying of the monarch by both camps with behind the scene deals, as seen in the resolution of the Selangor menteri besar crisis last year.

It will also involve political manoeuvring, such as Mukhriz attempting to get popular support from ordinary voters in Kedah as show of force and to pressure Najib's Umno to back off.

Something which he may have already started with the 1,000-strong rally in his support organised by his supporters hours after the 'coup' attempt by the pro-Najib faction in the state Umno.

In any case, if the monarch is satisfied that Mukhriz has lost majority support, he can sack Mukhriz and replace him with a new candidate, bringing a swift close to the issue.

However, based on Sultan Abdul Halim's non-interference track record, he may refuse to intervene and ask that the matter to be resolved in the state assembly instead, which will be a messier affair.

Scenario 3: Snap polls

This will likely be a last resort for Mukhriz if he is unable to muster enough support in the existing state assembly.

Moreover, it is also what Kedah PAS has voiced as the best alternative, touting itself as the alternative to the now fractured BN in the state.

Such a move however, is fraught with danger as Mukhriz will have to stave off a well-oiled Umno machinery which will likely turn against him in a snap poll.

Najib's Umno will also not endorse Mukhriz as its candidate and contesting against an appointed Umno candidates will result in a lifetime expulsion from the party.

Furthermore, if the snap election results in BN losing power, Umno supporters may not forgive Mukhriz, dimming any chances of a future comeback.

However, if the situation becomes desperate enough that Mukhriz will consider such a move, it is likely the Kedah sultan will have intervened to avoid a costly election and disruption to the state's administration.

Though in all three scenarios, the ace in Mukhriz's hand may be his father, former PM Dr Mahathir, whose influence amongst the Malay grassroots, state royalty and Umno members in Kedah is formidable, in what is his home state.

But Najib, while not known for being particularly impulsive or daring in his political moves, may not have instructed his boys to start hunting Mukhriz empty handed.

Perhaps Najib has an ace up his sleeve somewhere, as he has yet to show his full hand.

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