Change or it's a date with doom

The future appears black and blue for Barisan Nasional following its second consecutive by-election bruising in the wake of the March 8 elections.

After Saturday's bashing at the hands of PAS in Kuala Terengganu, numerous political analysts have painted a bleak picture for the ruling coalition.

Joining this bandwagon was former New Straits Times Press (NSTP) group editor-in-chief A Kadir Jasin.

Without mincing his words, the veteran journalist warned that a knock out awaited BN if its leaders do not tackle the reasons behind the defeat.

"Kuala Terengganu voters, it seems, are not buying the sky-high promises made by Umno and BN and as a matter of fact, Umno members themselves are still angered and hold grudges against its leaders.

"The defeat is a curse and spells doom for Umno and BN because they lost a seat where they used to enjoy major support," he said in his blog posting today.

Unlike BN's defeat in Permatang Pauh, the fortress of Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim, Kadir said the ruling coalition has always boasted of heavy support in Kuala Terengganu.

However, he said the PAS victory is a clear indicator that the BN brand does not sell.

Wrong candidate

For Kadir, the choice of candidate was the decisive factor. According to him, fielding former senator and deputy home minister Wan Ahmad Farid Wan Salleh was nothing short of 'suicidal'.

"Wan Farid, being Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's (former) political secretary and is linked to (his son-in-law) Khairy Jamaluddin and the '4th Floor' was the wrong choice

"Umno must be brave enough to acknowledge that Abdullah, Khairy (and the) the 4th floor boys are a liability during the by-election," he said.

Another factor, Kadir pointed out, was BN's ineffective campaign.

"Promises of development, money politics and extreme campaigning methods have disgusted voters as well as the role of the mainstream media that is not grounded to reality as reflected in their reports and analyses that favoured BN.

"Maybe the 'carpet bombing' campaign adopted by BN and its heavy dependence on its electoral machineries, the mainstream media and outsiders no longer have any effect. In fact, it has sickened the voters there," he added.

Kadir pointed out that the effects of BN's defeat would be felt most by incoming premier Najib Abdul Razak, who is slated to take over the reins in March.

He said the by-election results showed that voters are not ready for Najib and this would prove difficult for him to lead a coalition embroiled in a credibility crisis.

Furthermore, he added, voters are now mature and would be repelled from supporting BN if its leaders still acted like "kings, lords and masters."

"Come down from the high chairs. Sit on plastic chairs with the rakyat and voters. You are the people’s representatives. You are elected by them. You are not their lords and masters. They are, in fact, your masters," he stressed.

Should BN fail to address these issues, he warned that the coalition would suffer further humiliation in the coming months and years, starting with the Sawarak state elections.

Other analysts also felt that BN must institute urgent changes or risk losing power.

Khoo Kay Peng, independent political analyst

BN lost because of the face of its campaign. It uses public resources to blackmail the people with their own money. Voters are fed up with this bullying and intimidation. BN has clearly not learnt the lessons from March 8

BN is broken and the support of component parties such as MIC, MCA and Gerakan is not convincing. These parties also suffer from internal problems and are being more vocal in public which is to their detriment. They are breaking the rules of a coalition partnership. Internal collaboration, consensus and a give-and-take attitude no longer exist.

Pakatan Rakyat is more of a coalition where the partners have mutual respect. They are also of roughly equal strength. In BN, Umno is clearly still the backbone and the component parties have suffered heavy electoral losses, eroding their prestige. BN will take a plunge soon unless it becomes one multiracial party.

To become multiracial, it has to merge into a single party to show the people that it has truly changed and has the confidence of the Malaysian people. It is the only way BN can survive.

Dr Sivamurugam Pandian, political science lecturer with USM

Few factors caused BN to lose the KT by-election. The BN candidate was not a compromise between the different factions in Kuala Terengganu. But the PAS candidate was a compromise allowing the party to unite behind him. Candidates are more important in a by-election because the focus is on one candidate.

The election machinery of Umno also failed, they did not coordinate. Yet, they have everything, including the media and money. Although the prime minister and deputy premier were above the Umno factions, their followers could not agree.

Kuala Terengganu is an area where not many national issues are important, it is more local. Voters want a candidate that is capable, likeable, approachable and friendly. Generally speaking voters need to feel the candidate belongs to them.

The PAS candidate has been there for five terms and has an approachable personality. People see themselves as (his) family. Umno's behaviour was elitist and focused on development. But Wakaf Mempelam (where the PAS candidate is from) is not developed at all but voters still voted for him. He is not arrogant but understands them.

BN should seriously think about how it can bring the younger generation on board. The younger generation cares about the candidate, not the party. BN could recover if they show leadership. BN needs to wake up, but historically it has gone through these kinds of problems before.

Pakatan Rakyat now has moral legitimacy. This will continue if there are no cracks in the coalition, if it continues to win elections, if it can establish a comprehensive policy and unite behind a single logo. Pakatan Rakyat no longer wins just because of protest votes.

But Pakatan Rakyat should have a more comprehensive policy. It should not be seen as a loose coalition. Especially PAS and DAP need to overcome their differences over the Islamic state issue and DAP's Malaysian Malaysia.

Pakatan Rakyat is not strong, it is still weak and without a comprehensive policy or symbol like BN. It is gaining from BN's weakness. Yet there has been no migration of parties from BN to Pakatan Rakyat. These parties might no longer trust BN, but they are still loyal to it.