Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's coming into power this October will breathe life into the many political careers that have laid dormant under Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad's reign.

Among those who may become active players once again are former Umno Youth chief Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and supreme council member Shahrir Samad.

Ahmad Zahid's political aspirations hit a brick wall when his mentor and ex-deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim was sacked from the government and party in 1998.

On the other hand, Shahrir impeded his ascent by pledging allegiance to Mahathir's former nemesis Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah when the latter unsuccessfully challenged the premier for control of Umno in 1987.

Apart from the duo, there are talks too that Razaleigh, Musa Hitam and Rais Yatim may make their presence felt once Mahathir steps down in October.

Musa, who was the premier's first deputy, and Rais had also aligned themselves with Razaleigh during the 1987 crisis.

Razaleigh and Rais later formed a splinter party called Semangat 46. The party disbanded after the 1995 general election and the duo returned to Umno with their members en masse .

Although, Abdullah himself had supported Razaleigh and his men, he however did not join their party but chose to remain in Umno with Mahathir instead.

Younger leaders

Meanwhile, younger leaders such as Selangor Menteri Besar Dr Mohd Khir Toyo and Umno Youth chief Hishamuddin Hussein are also expected to ascend the party hierarchy under Abdullah's stewardship.

Mohd Khir - the recently elected chairperson of the Malaysian Youth Council (MBM) - appears to be among the more notable leaders who are interested in weaving their way into the inner circle.

His new position in MBM is timely and in-line with Umno's effort to persuade the younger generation who are sympathetic towards the opposition to support the ruling party.

After 'tirelessly working' for the formation of Puteri Umno - a wing set up two years ago to attract younger Malay women into the fold - the 38-year-old menteri besar has now trained his crosshair on Umno Youth.

He seems interested in leading the movement, which is gradually running out of steam, much to the chagrin of its members.

Mahathir-loyalists

Apart from these developments, another issue is that many existing party leaders could find their heads on the chopping block once Mahathir steps down.

Undoubtedly, changes are expected in the new Umno leadership and cabinet. Therefore, it is hardly surprising that there is widespread alarm among the incumbents.

Concern for their survival grew after the party supreme council endorsed the decision to dissolve existing divisional committees and replace them with pro tem committees until after the general election.

These leaders who owe their positions to Mahathir are also worried about the past rearing its ugly head as most of them rallied behind Anwar's 'Vision Team' against Abdullah during the 1993 party elections.

The gravity of the situation came to light when Mahathir-loyalist and Perlis Menteri Besar Shahidan Kassim claimed that he received a threat via the telephone that his political career would be ended as soon as Mahathir leaves office.

Shahidan alleged that the caller had used Abdullah's name.

Fearing for their future, these pro-Mahathir leaders are rumoured to be organising a big gathering at the Bukit Jalil stadium in Kuala Lumpur to try and coax the premier into changing his mind.

However, if Abdullah comes into power then changes are imminent. The question then, is who would he appoint to be part of his 'team'.

All said and done, this question is rather difficult to answer at the moment.

Despite this, those who helped Abdullah seek re-election as vice-president in 1996 can now look forward for some form of reward.

Daunting task

The incoming premier's most daunting task now is to prove that he has the support, and not mere compassion of Umno members to lead the party and government.

Compassion-based support does not have a long shelf-life and the fate that befell Semangat 46 is testimony to this.

Now there is Keadilan, another Umno splinter formed following the sacking of Anwar. Those sympathetic towards the jailed leader voted for the opposition in the 1999 polls.

However, the chief beneficiary of both the Semangat 46 and Anwar incidents was PAS. In the 1990 elections it clinched Kelantan and in the last elections it swept neighbouring Terengganu.

It is therefore of utmost importance for Abdullah to formulate a strategy to show that he has full control of the party and government.

This becomes more pertinent if he decides not to appoint Najib as his deputy, despite Mahathir repeatedly hinting that he should.

Abdullah can opt for Muhyiddin Yassin while at the same time rope in the support of the other vice-president Muhd Muhammad Taib who also commands a sizeable following in Umno.

This strategy would help check Najib but the fact which will remain is that Abdullah has to depend on others to survive.

If not appointing Najib is one way of preventing him from challenging Abdullah for presidency, then what guarantee is there that Muhyiddin may not get ambitious as well?

This is the first of a three-part series. Next: Reforms in Umno?