COMMENT | Geopolitical risks of Malaysia-Thailand Railway

COMMENT | On March 24, I participated in an official visit organised by the Transport Ministry to the Perlis Inland Port and the Padang Besar Railway Line alongside minister Anthony Loke.

During the visit, ministry officials briefed us on Malaysia's aspiration to connect its railway system to Yunnan, China, via Thailand and Laos, aimed at boosting external trade and accessing broader markets.

The China- Laos railway, an electrified and modern line, has been operational since December 2021. However, the greatest challenge lies in Thailand’s railway segment, which requires significant financial and technological investments to modernise through electrification and double-track expansion.

Besides, geopolitical risks warrant primary concern. Conducting a thorough investigation into these risks is essential to mitigate potential dangers before embarking on any physical construction efforts.

To address this, a geopolitical analytical framework is employed for assessing the risks associated with the Malaysia-Thailand-Laos-China railway.

This framework involves identifying geopolitical factors, international political factors, geostrategic interest structure factors, and actors of geopolitical risk, followed by a qualitative diagnosis.

Geopolitical factors

Southern Thailand hosts a major port at Ranong near Phuket Island but lacks a deep-sea port on its eastern coast.

This infrastructural deficiency hampers Thailand’s ability to facilitate trade between the Indian Ocean and West Pacific, compelling Southern Thai entrepreneurs to rely heavily on Malaysian ports.

Recognising this weakness, the Thai government has proposed the construction of a land bridge to connect Ranong Port and Chumphon Port, pending future funding availability.

This initiative presents both positive and negative implications for Malaysia. On the one hand, it would diminish the competitiveness of Malaysian seaports, such as Penang Port.

On the other hand, a thriving Southern Thai economy could create substantial economic opportunities for Malaysia.

Additionally, Southern Thailand faces numerous challenges, including dense rainforests that provide cover for separatists, underdeveloped economies, societal polarisation, and recurring racial and religious unrest.

Since the resurgence of separatist movements in 2004, over 7,300 lives have been lost, including casualties from a recent attack that occurred in early March 2025.

This has shown that Southern Thailand is still far away from achieving stability and security.

Global political factors

Regionally, Asean has been promoting economic cooperation through initiatives such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the Asean Trade in Goods Agreement, and the Master Plan on Asean Connectivity 2025.

These efforts have contributed to steady progress toward regional economic integration. Notably, Malaysia and Thailand align with Asean’s vision for bilateral economic development under these frameworks.

Looking northward, China’s emergence as a global manufacturing and technological powerhouse offers opportunities for Malaysia and Thailand to leverage advancements in areas such as artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, green energy, aerospace, shipbuilding, defence, and tertiary education.

On a broader scale, global uncertainties arising from the US- China rivalry have impacted economic development in Malaysia and Thailand.

Such uncertainties are reflected in looming tariffs imposed by the US, supply chain disruptions, restrictions on AI chips, and other measures that affect the region’s stability and progress.

While these international political dynamics present challenges, they also create avenues for growth.

Geostrategic interest structure factors

Geostrategic interest structure factors can be divided into "geographical structural" changes and "interest structural" changes.

In the foreseeable future, no significant geographical structural changes are expected to occur along the Malaysia- Thailand railway segment.

However, several developments, such as Malaysia’s East Coast Rail Link, which may eventually connect to Thailand, the initiation of the Ranong-Chumphon Land Bridge project, and the electrification and double-track upgrade of Thailand’s north- south railway to link with the China- Laos railway, can be considered artificial geographical structures once completed.

When these new infrastructures are in place, they will redefine regional dynamics and national interest perceptions. For the first time, Malaysia, Thailand, Laos, and Singapore will establish direct rail connections to the Eurasian continent through Chinese, Kazakhstani, and Russian railways, resulting in a paradigm shift in national interest perception.

This shift entails the inclusion of a Eurasian strategic perspective within their national interests.

What was once inconceivable will become a reality: Malaysia, Thailand, Laos, and Singapore will be increasingly concerned with any disruptions in the connectivity of the Eurasian railway in the future.

US-China rivalry

The geopolitical risks associated with the Malaysia- Thailand railway involve various actors whose interests and actions intersect in complex ways.

Among these actors are separatist movements in Southern Thailand, whose ongoing insurgencies and civil unrest pose significant security challenges.

Further, US policies, particularly those under its current administration and related to trade and geopolitical rivalry with China, have introduced uncertainties that affect the region’s stability.

China’s expanding global influence also plays a critical role, as its growing economic and technological power continues to reshape the international political landscape.

Meanwhile, Asean’s efforts to harmonise the interests of its member states through regional integration remain complicated by divergent national priorities.

Collectively, the actions of these actors contribute to the broader geopolitical risks surrounding the Malaysia- Thailand railway, creating a complex and potentially volatile environment.

Interactions of risk factors

Examining these factors collectively suggests that the Ranong-Chumphon land bridge, which aims to connect sea lines of communication between the Indian Ocean and the West Pacific, could attract competition from major powers.

In essence, global powers may vie for dominance or control over the land bridge, constituting a significant geopolitical risk.

This competition may, in turn, exacerbate ongoing conflicts such as the Southern Thailand separatist movement if any major power seeks to exploit the insurgency for its own advantage, thereby contributing to another geopolitical risk.

Regions like Southern Thailand and the northern peninsula of Malaysia may increasingly be regarded as sensitive geographical zones.

As they potentially become pivotal nodes in a broader Eurasian strategic landscape, their perceived importance may grow, diverging from their historically marginal status under classic geopolitical theories such as Mackinder’s heartland theory.

While the evolving geopolitical landscape presents positive prospects, particularly in terms of enhanced connectivity and economic opportunities, the associated risks warrant careful calibration and continued attention.

And while the most notable risk is generally positive rather than negative, their future will be intertwined with geopolitical competition across the Eurasian continent, which still requires careful calibration and attention.

LAM CHOONG WAH is a senior lecturer at the International and Strategic Studies Department, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, Universiti Malaya.

The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of Malaysiakini.

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