Most Read
Most Commented
Read more like this
mk-logo
From Our Readers
Syrian civil war becoming a mini-Third World War

The direct entry of Russia has now turned the Syrian civil war from a big powers proxy war into a miniature Third World War minus the nuclear weapons. The US, Britain, France and now Russia have joined the fray together with others such as Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the Hezbollah, the Jihadists, IS, al-Qaeda and the anti-Assad forces. It has now become a conflict in which the largest array of forces are battling it out since the Second World War.

All the major powers are supporting one group or the other of their own choice, making the Syrian conflict a quagmire and gridlock that cannot be easily resolved, very much like the Israeli-Palestinian one.

Many had expected that the 70th session of the UN General Assembly could find ways to resolve the issue exacerbated by the spiraling refugee crisis and the destruction of ancient monuments by the IS. However it has taken a turn for the worse through Russian intervention by aerial bombing and ground support personnel. The conflict could widen and escalate with a direct confrontation between the Cold war rivals, already strained by the Ukrainian crisis.

The risk of a confrontation between Nato and Russia has now become a possibility. The UN needs to do something before the situation gets out of hand. President Bashar Assad, despite four years of warfare, 250,000 Syrians killed and many millions become refugees has been able to withstand the backlash.

As such any resolution of the conflict must involve him at least for a short period of time to provide a proper transitional phase to ensure that the government institutions remain stable as well as to protect the various ethnic and religious minorities that make up Syria. To insist that Assad has to exit is a hardline approach and bound to fail, when what is most needed is a compromise.

The West has already learnt bitter lessons on what happens when speedy regime change occurred as in Iraq and Libya. The same if not worse can happen with a diverse Syria in a power vacuum for a three to five year interim period during which Assad can stay in power but has to go when a democratic free and fair elections are held, could be a positive deal.

The longer the conflict prolongs the harder it becomes to resolve. The much-lauded Arab Spring has had an opposite effect in Syria. Very much like the Lebanese civil war in the 1970s, the Syrian one can be halted by the imposition of a peace deal by outsiders such as the US and Russia, whose direct involvement now can act as a catalyst for an agreement to prevent the situation spiralling out of control.

ADS