Pakatan Rakyat may just taste defeat in the Bukit Selambau state by-election if and unless it resolves, once and for all, the problem of getting the right candidate for the seat when nomination opens tomorrow morning.

Pakatan's loss, however, may not necessarily mean Barisan Nasional’s gain. It could be a local popular independent candidate who profit from the loss of votes for Pakatan.

manikumar pkr candidate for bukit selambau by election 200309 PKR supporters in Kedah, and not necessarily only Indians, are unhappy that the party top leadership had chosen a relatively unknown S Manikumar to contest such a crucial by-election in the northern state of Kedah.

Several local Indian community leaders from PKR have already closed down their election operation centres across Bukit Selambau.

A local PKR leader said it would not be a surprise if PKR local leaders and members campaigned for independent candidates during the by-election.

Teaching Anwar a political lesson

“Although their heart is for PKR, nonetheless they want to teach Anwar a political lesson for betraying the Indian community,” said the leader.

To win over the Indian support, Pakatan leaders are reminding the voters that Manikumar would be made an executive councillor if he wins, and the state government would not appoint victorious independent candidate as one.

bukit selambau state seat kedah 110209 Anwar and company claim that Manikumar would remain as PKR’s loyal elected representative, something disputed by local leaders who alleged that the proposed candidate was not even a party member.

A number of Indian community leaders are now questioning PKR supremo Anwar’s wisdom in choosing a 35-year-old car dealer to contest the seat, which was won by independent candidate, V Arumugam, in last March’s general election.

Arumugam secured 13,225 votes over his MIC rival S Krishnan’s 10,863 votes to score a 2,362-majority victory in a straight fight after PKR’s Saiful Izham Ramli nomination papers were rejected by the election commission returning officer on technical grounds.

Following his win, Arumugam joined PKR and was appointed as an executive councillor in Kedah Menteri Besar Azizan Abdul Razak’s administration.

35,000 registered voters

However, citing personal problems and pressure of money politics from BN, Arumugam resigned both as elected representative and executive councillor on Feb 9, paving the way for a fresh poll for Bukit Selambau.

Bukit Selambau, which comes under the Merbok parliamentary seat, is an urban-rural seat with some 35,000 registered voters comprising about 17,000 Malays, 10,000 Indians, nearly 7,000 Chinese and others.

According to intelligence reports, as of today at least 80 per cent of the Chinese should vote for Pakatan while the Malay votes were split equally.

This makes the crucial Indian votes decisive between a triumph and a defeat.

A defeat in Bukit Selambau for Pakatan would eventually lead to the downfall of Azizan’s state government, according to several political observers.

azizan abdul razak pas and kedah Even Azizan has acknowledged this when he told a crowd in a recent nightly rally in Sungai Petani that he would advise the Anak Bukit Palace to dissolve the state assembly for a fresh state election if Pakatan were to lose in Bukit Selambau.

Currently, his Pakatan government holds 21 state seats against BN’s 14 in the 36-seat legislative house.

It is believed that BN was luring at least five Pakatan assemblypersons to jump ship prior to Arumugam’s resignation.

Reliable sources said that most of these vulnerable elected representatives were from the southern part of Kedah.

The Pakatan tally comprises 16 for PAS, five for PKR and one for DAP.

Under the BN umbrella, Umno has 12, while MCA and Gerakan have one each.

Parachute candidate

If all PKR men were to jump ship, BN would have 19 seats against Pakatan’s 17, enough to form a razor-thin majority.

Since its rude awakening in Perak, Pakatan has learned a valuable lesson and has moved quickly for fresh poll for the seat and allow the people to choose a new representative.

The coalition now is at a risk of losing the crucial Indian support as PKR grassroots leaders and members are unhappy with Anwar’s choice of a parachute candidate from Jitra.

By choosing Manikumar, Anwar has also isolated the supporters of Hindu Rights Action Force (Hindraf), which had lobbied to field its own local leader RS Thanenthiran as the PKR candidate.

Aggrieved local PKR leader, B Kalaivanar, would also become a decisive factor in this by-election if he steps into an aggressive election campaign against PKR and Anwar.

Observers, however, felt Manikumar’s ill-fortune would not be much help to MIC candidate, S Ganesan, 49, who is working hard to recapture the once party stronghold.

“It’s tough but I have a slight advantage because I’m a local,” said Sungai Petani-based Ganesan, a former Lunas assemblyperson and a lawyer by training.

Observers said although nearly half of Bukit Selambau Indian voters were fence-sitters, they were unlikely to vote for MIC.

“They would rather vote for an independent candidate,” they said.

Bukit Selambau constituents are generally still undecided, and analysts said the nine-day campaign would decide who wins the seat.

“It’s an open contest,” said a source. Open indeed, but it could make or unmake Azizan’s government.

Malaysiakini will be providing LIVE coverage of the nominations tomorrow beginning at 8.30am.