Today postal voting is being held for the Bagan Pinang by election. It will continue tomorrow.

This, according to Ngah Senik, the Election Commission secretary "is necessary as there are 4,604 postal voters in the constituency".

Polling "proper" as we know is on Sunday.

Anyway since nomination last Saturday, many have been using the word "WHEN" instead of "IF" in referring to Isa Samad's bid for the Bagan Pinang state seat.

isa samad 061009 smile In short, many believe Isa ( left) will win. They have their own reasons for coming to an early conclusion, all of which we have heard many times before. So let's not go there.

But with such conclusion comes this - a "logical" question which was and is still being asked." What do you do with a senior party man WHEN he wins"?

What this simply means is "How do you reward him"? Some are speculating Isa will be given an exco portfolio. Isa has declared that he wasn't promised "anything if I win."

Many are not convinced. Menteri Besar Mohamad Hasan is keeping mum, only wanting to say " let Isa win first". Hence speculation continues. Many still firmly believe Isa will be made a senior exco "befitting his stature".

Uneasy political relations

Assuming this happens, will that make Mohamad Hasan "less comfortable"? What with Isa being much more senior than him? And was Negri Sembilan MB from 1982 to 2004 (in the 2004 General Election he contested parliamentary seat of Jempol, won it and was made Federal Territory Minister. A year later he had to relinquish the ministerial position because of his Umno problems, which we all know about).

Said a Negri Sembilan Umno watcher, it's an open secret Isa and Mohamad Hassan are "not in the best of terms", something both have strongly denied.

Mohamad Hasan is saying he was the first to nominate Isa as Bagan Pinang candidate. Isa on his part says both of them "are so busy" that "we don't have time to fight".

He has also denied that the leadership's decision in picking him as candidate is "splitting" Umno especially in Negri Sembilan.

mohamad hasan negeri sembilan mb Isa and Mohamad Hasan of late have been seen together at functions, obviously projecting an "all's well" front. Still there are folks who're not buying.

Word has it that Mohamad Hasan ( right ) does not enjoy the full support of Negeri Sembilan Umno. Such talk has been around for a long time.

Political gossip hits top gear

The Umno watcher put it as five out of eight Umno divisions in the state as not supporting the MB.

It seems that Rais Yatim and Shaziman Mansor, big names in Negri Sembilan Umno are also not "keen" on Mohamad Hassan. True of false? It all depends on who you talk to.

Some say when Mohamad Hasan became MB, he incurred the wrath of Isa by "chopping off " Isa's men. Now it looks like it's "pay back time".

According to the Umno watcher, the day Isa was officially named BN candidate for Bagan Pinang, many of Mohamad Hasan supporters "abandoned him and jumped onto the Isa band wagon".

Now, some are boldly speculating that Isa will be made, no not senior exco but Negri Sembilan Menteri Besar, replacing Mohamad Hassan.

The Umno watcher who claims to have been following Negri Sembilan Umno politics for a long time feels there's a possibility PM Najib Razak will appoint Isa as MB. He went on to state the reason why, which I feel should be omitted at least for now.

All this, however, cannot be independently substantiated and remain "speculative." Maybe "hearsay" even .

Still it's "safe" to assume supporters of Isa will "push, shove and prompt" that their boss be made MB.

But Mohamad Hasan is no pushover. He too, has his own supporters (although some are said to have jumped ship).

And as menteri besar he is the incumbent despite being "junior" to Isa, in age and experience. He won't give in easily. His band of supporters will make sure of that, if not for anything else.

If the "speculation" and "political theory" becomes a reality, then a bigger war is in store after Sunday's by-election in Bagan Pinang. Like Karen Carpenter said in her song "We've only just begun."

But first thing's first. Isa must win. Can he? Will he?

Mohsin Abdullah is a freelance writer.