Academics, analysts and community leaders are spoilt for choice in pinning down the reasons for the Barisan Nasional (BN) victory in Bagan Pinang yesterday.

But most of them agree that success had more to do with the candidate - former Negri Sembilan menteri besar Isa Samad - than his party, Umno.

Isa cemented his return to the political mainstream with his landslide victory in the by-election, beating PAS candidate Zulkefly Mohamad Omar by more than 5,000 votes.

Those contacted commented on internal weaknesses in opposition coalition Pakatan Rakyat as having turned off voters, causing it to lose ground.

The swing of Indian Malaysian votes back to BN was linked to the disintegration of Hindraf and the emergence of Malaysian Makkal Sakti Party (MMSP) as an alternative in raising the needs of the community.

Noor Sulastry Yurni Ahmad, political science lecturer, UM

NONE This is not about the Malays being really against Pakatan. Isa was the real clincher. PAS tried to bring up the fact that he is not a local, but that propaganda did not work.

The BN election machinery put in maximum effort to win because it did not want to lose Bagan Pinang to Pakatan. It portrayed the image that people still love Umno and Isa, and promised a lot of things to everyone.

Malay voters may have had issues with Pakatan because of internal conflicts (in Selangor PAS between) Malay leaders such as Hasan Ali and Khalid Samad.

Indian voters are in the minority, so they have to follow wherever there is an opportunity for them to fight for their rights. Now they feel their future lies with BN.

Usually Indians are the ones who [...] support Pakatan as the new political outlet for their rights. But in Bagan Pinang they were on the other side. Hindraf is no longer relevant. It only surfaces when there are controversial issues.

Khoo Khay Peng, political analyst

malaysiakini discussion 050208 khoo kay peng It's actually about personalities. Malaysian politics still largely revolve around personalities. The Bagan Pinang win is all about Isa's popularity and his strength among the grassroots

The Indian situation is tricky. After (the general election of) 2008, everyone expected them to unite behind the Makkal Sakthi movement. It did not happen.

The movement's leadership is heading towards self-destruction, with its leaders embroiled in scandals. Hindraf only threatens and blames both BN and Pakatan, but has no concrete plan of action on issues.

The local Indians turned to the only credible person they know - Isa is a Tamil speaking ex-MB who has been there a long time. He is perceived to be a source for help and resources for the people. In Malaysian politics we cannot run away from the fact that people look to politicians for help and resources.

PAS tried to paint Isa as an outsider from Malacca but this did not work. Lim Guan Eng faced the same propaganda (previously), but is now the chief minister of Penang.

Bagan Pinang is a unique (constituency) with the postal votes and the Isa factor. Don't read much into (the victory), it does not give a fair indication of the national mood.

A more interesting seat would be like Ong Tee Keat's seat, if he were to resign. We will have the middle income urban folk facing economic challenges from the rising cost of living. Then we will see a better indication of how things lie.

Aruna Gopinath, political analyst

The main reason is that Pakatan has failed to deliver. The electorate is not convinced that it is strong, due to the many defections. This has lowered people's confidence and made them go back to BN, (now seen as) the lesser of two evils. When you are caught between the devil and the deep blue sea, what choice do you have?

BN (has been) on its toes after its failure to capture many votes in the last general election. It can't afford to lose any more. BN (went) all out to win this time.

(Indian voters supported BN because) they are convinced by MMSP's promise to be better than MIC (which) has disappointed them with all its internal conflicts. Plus, close to nothing has been done in the interior states.

People are unconvinced by Hindraf. It has a voice and can awaken people, but has not shown that it can implement policy.

(In politics) it is the masses that you need (in order) to go far. And the masses are the poor. The elite won't fall for gimmicks, but poor people have no choice, they are desperate for help. Whoever gives (them) money, they will follow. This has been a major tactic.

Both BN and Pakatan are hanging on (by their fingernails). The only coalition (voters) can fall back on right now is BN, because people think that they have been around for so long, so maybe they can be pushed to do something. But that's the problem. BN needs a lot of pushing.

K Vasanthakumar, former Hindraf leader

NONE Most of the Indians in Bagan Pinang are among the poor or hardcore poor, they live in estates and their immediate worry is over housing, food and clothing.

Estate managements provide housing but the people struggle just to get food and clothing especially with Deepavali around the corner. BN, with its gifts of hampers filled with food and clothing, and ang pow appeared as the coalition that best serves their immediate needs.

I did a five-day survey among the Indians and came up with eight reasons why Indians must support Pakatan.

However BN fulfilled three of the reasons (and this appealed) to the Indians because (it showed) BN is looking out for them:

  • making land available for the SRJK(T) Sungai Salak Lukut Estate;
  • allocating land for an Indian assembly hall in Port Dickson; and
  • reviving abandoned housing projects to provide low-cost housing.

I went for some ceramah with Pakatan leaders at estates and found that its leaders talked more about national issues like PKFZ and the cow-head issue.

This did not appeal to the local Indians, most of whom are not well educated. They don't read about national issues. They are more concerned about what is happening locally. The focus should have been on local issues.

In the last general election, the Indians voted for PKR in the Teluk Kemang and PD seats. However neither of these representative has since gone into the estates to meet the people. They are ignorant of the people's needs.

BN did this previously and now Pakatan is doing the same. So the Indians (felt) that they should give (their vote) back to BN and see if there is any change.

azlan