Theoretically Barisan Nasional may be confident of capturing Kedah in the upcoming general election but ground support for the opposition may just tip the scales, warned a PAS leader today.

Kedah PAS chief Azizan Abdul Razak said the ruling coalition was relying on the changes to the election borders in the state to help them garner votes.

However, he said PAS was confident of winning at least six more seats - in addition to the 13 won by the opposition in the last elections - to take control of Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad's home state.

In the 1999 elections, BN lost eight parliamentary and 12 state seats in Kedah, all of which were won by PAS. The state has15 parliamentary and 36 state seats.

The PAS-controlled state seats are Kuala Nerang, Langgar, Bukit Lada, Kupang, Sala, Anak Bukit, Bukit Raya, Pedu, Belantek, Jeneri, Pengkalan Kundor and Ayer Hitam.

The opposition party also won the Padang Terap, Pokok Sena, Kuala Kedah, Baling, Sik, Pendang, Jerlun dan Yan parliamentary seats.

However, the party lost the Pendang seat in a by-election which was called after the death of its president Fadzil Noor last year.

In 2000, BN lost another state seat - Lunas - in a by-election to PAS' opposition front ally Keadilan.

MPs relocated

An analysis by several senior state Umno leaders has acknowledged that PAS may retain at least 10 of the 12 seats it won in the previous elections.

According to these leaders, Umno has found it difficult to make inroads in several PAS-held parliamentary constituencies such as Jerlun, Padang Terap and Sik.

"All these 12 PAS seats are located within its stronghold. For the parliamentary seats, BN can perhaps regain four of the PAS-held constituencies," they said.

The Umno leaders also claimed that they were in the process of collecting information regarding the relocation of the opposition party's parliamentarians to safer ground for the upcoming polls.

Among the leaders likely to shift bases were Mohamad Sabu (Kuala Kedah), Mahfuz Omar (Pokok Sena), Nasharuddin Mat Isa (Yan ) and Azamuddin Taib (Baling).

"We were informed that Mohamad Sabu will contest in Pendang. Mahfuz ( photo ) is expected to contest in Padang Terap, while Nasharuddin and Azamuddin will move to Jerlun and Sik respectively," the leaders said.

"These are PAS strongholds. Hence, the party is confident that the four would be re-elected. Though PAS was defeated in Pendang (in the by-electin), it is still confident of recapturing the seat."

Asked to comment on the relocation claim, Azizan said PAS preferred to not to discuss its election strategies in public.

However, the Kedah PAS chief said the party would have to make necessary "adjustments" to its strategies since the existing parliamentary constituencies have been redrawn to accommodate new areas and size of the electorate.

"On paper, Umno should be confident of winning again, but our confidence in capturing Kedah is based on ground support," he added.