Kedah round-up Come this election, the focus will definitely be on the battle for Kedah as the Malay-majority state saw the opposition, namely PAS, commanding an impressive victory in the last polls.

This time however it may be an entirely different scenario. At least that's what Kedah BN leaders, particularly those from Umno, claim.

According to them, the absence of certain factors that contributed to the opposition's credible performance in the previous election, will work in the favour of Umno.

They are confident that the ruling front will recapture the PAS-held state seats and restore the two-third majority.

"The outcome of this election will prove that PAS had won the 12 state seats and eight parliamentary seat, not on its own strength, but the party had benefitted from the sacking of former deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim from Umno and the government in 1998," said a veteran Umno leader.

To substantiate his claim, he quoted a survey conducted by a team from Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM) after the 1999 general election which showed that as much as 35 percent of Umno members voted for the opposition.

The survey also discovered that eight out of 15 Umno divisions in Kedah openly expressed support for Anwar shortly before the 1999 general election, resulting in the party losing all those seats.

Despite this, Umno won16 of the 28 state seats it contested, while the other Barisan Nasional (BN) component parties secured all the eight state seats they contested thus allowing the front to continue ruling the state.

In 2000, the opposition won its 13th state seat to deny BN a two-third majority in the state assembly, after Parti Rakyat Keadilan secured the Lunas seat in a by-election.

Poignant by-elections

Two years later, PAS President Dr Fadzil Noor passed away, opening the way for two more by-elections - the Anak Bukit state seat and the Pendang parliamentary seat.

While BN failed to secure the state seat, the results were close. The seat was retained by PAS with a mere 508 votes as compared to a 1,840 majority in 1999.

On the other hand, Pendang fell to the ruling front and this spelt bad news for the opposition party as Fadzil had won the seat with a whopping 2,939 vote-majority.

Political observers described the outcome of the battle for Fadzil's seats as an indication of Umno regaining its strength and that the 1999 swing towards PAS could have been due to the Anwar factor.

"Based on the election results for both Anak Bukit and Pendang in 1999 and during the 2002 by-elections, it is safe to conclude that the contributing factor to PAS' victory in several state and parliamentary seats in the last election was partly related to the sacking of Anwar," said a veteran Kedah Umno leader.

"The same UKM team conducted a second survey last year, and their findings showed that the local political scenario had change greatly. If PAS' victory in 1999 was partly due to Anwar and the split in Umno, then BN stands a good chance of increasing the state seats in this general election," he added.

Furthermore, he said, eight of the 12 state seats were won by PAS with a slim majority - Ayer Hitam (144), Kuala Nerang (821), Pedu (446), Bukit Lada (852), Pengkalan Kundor (675), Belantek (492) and Jenari (593).

The remaining four seats saw a greater majority -Kupang (3,043), Sala (2,621), Bukit Raya (5,144) and Langgar (2,799).

BN's slim-majority seats

However, the Umno leader remained optimistic. "These seats are also within our reach as in the case of Anak Bukit when we managed to reduce the majority from 1,840 in 1999 to just 500 in the 2002 by-election."

On the other hand, he also acknowledged that BN could find itself in a similar fix since it too had won three seats with small majorities. - Pantai Merdeka (504), Tanjong Seri (440) and Kota Seputeh (261).

"It may not be an accurate assessment of the present political scenario in Kedah but it could be a good-enough indication to predict the outcome of the coming general election," he added.

Umno's confidence was also voiced by a division leader in the state, who believed that his party had regained its strength and a good performance was on the cards.

"Even the strained relationship between the state civil servants and the previous state government has long been overcome, so is the relationship with the local ulama (religious leaders).

"In fact, I personally feel that (Menteri Besar) Syed Razak Syed Zain has given due respect to the state civil services and the state government has never failed to consult the ulama on matters relating to Islam," added the leader who requested anonymity.

He also claimed that almost all branch meetings have recorded a 100 percent attendance. "By now, most of Anwar's supporters have returned to the Umno fold."

On the thorny issue of Sekolah Agama Rakyat (SAR), he said initially the lack of a proper explanation on why it had stop funding these religious schools had affected the party.

"But now, the people know the real reason behind the government's move and almost all SAR teachers were accepted into government national schools with a better salary and other financial benefits," he said.

The government had revoked the funding after accusing the schools - mostly run by PAS - of sowing anti-government sentiments among its students. The Muslim-based opposition party has denied this.

Given the developments on the political front over the past years, Umno Kedah's aspirations may not be unrealistic after all and this was illustrated in a recent membership drive in the state that saw some 20,000 people joining the party.