The chief economist of Bank Islam has been suspended following media reports on a presentation he made predicting a narrow victory for the opposition Pakatan Rakyat in the 13th general election.

The top officer, Azrul Azwar Ahmad Tajudin, received the suspension letter yesterday afternoon, after allegations of "serious misconduct" were made against him.

azlan Contacted by Malaysiakini today, Azrul said he did not know the reason for his suspension but confirmed that it was linked to the presentation he made in Singapore recently.

"This action is politically motivated. I do not know what to say. I am shocked that this happened," he said.

Azrul said the letter states that his suspension would be effective immediately. However, it does not say how long the suspension would last.

“As no two GEs can provide almost exactly the same reading and in view of the surprise GE12 results, predicting the outcome of the GE13 could prove very challenging and a highly speculative attempt,” Azrul Azwar said in his controversial presentation.

It is further compounded by the large number of new voters - an increase of 2.13 million, or 19.6 percent, since the 2008 general election, making it the biggest spike in Malaysia’s history.

Nevertheless, Azrul gave three scenarios relating to the forthcoming general election based on his research.

1) Scenario with high probability :

  • Narrow loss for BN, securing only 97-107 parliamentary seats (narrow victory for Pakatan: 115-125)
  • Failure to retake Kedah, Penang, Selangor and Kelantan
  • Lose control of Perak, Negri Sembilan, Terengganu and Perlis
  • Narrowly retain Pahang and Johor
  • Lose significant ground in Malacca, Sabah and Sarawak

2) Scenario with moderate probability :

  • Narrow win for BN, securing 112-122 parliamentary seats (narrow loss for Pakatan: 100-110)
  • Failure to retake Kedah, Penang, Selangor and Kelantan
  • Lose control of Perak and Negri Sembilan

3) Scenario with low probability :

  • Big loss for BN, securing only 82-92 parliamentary seats (big victory for PR: 130-140)
  • Failure to retake Kedah, Penang, Selangor and Kelantan
  • Lose control of Perak, Negri Sembilan, Terengganu, Perlis and Pahang
  • Narrowly retain Johor and Malacca
  • Lose significant ground in Sabah and Sarawak

Short-term negative impact

He also speculated that a Pakatan win may have a short-term negative impact on the economy, especially from sabotage by pro-BN businesses and civil service, though he predicted that the long-term political and economic effects could make Malaysia better off with the emergence of a genuine two-party system and stronger checks and balances.

Azrul also warned that Pakatan’s aversion to the goods and services tax (GST) may see the government unable to expand revenue and discontinuance of established long-term policies that could be disruptive.

NONE However, Azrul today lamented that only one of the scenarios - the one of a Pakatan win - was reported by a media outlet, which painted him as “biased”.

“If all three possible scenarios were reported, this issue (my suspension) would not have happened,” he said, expressing regret over the media spin.

Azrul said he was reflecting on his suspension and that the would not discount the possibility of quitting his post.

“I don’t want others to suffer. This is for my boss’ benefit,” he explained, adding that his superiors were now facing undue influence from “senior BN leaders”.

Meanwhile, in response to queries by theedgemalaysia.com , Bank Islam stated that under current bank policy, “any staff irrespective of their position, including the management level, whom the bank has reasonable grounds to believe has breached the bank’s internal policy, will be suspended with full pay, to facilitate investigation”.

A profile published in Malay language daily Berita Harian recently recounted his decade-long experience in economics.

With a Masters' degree in Finance from Universite d’Orleans, France, Azrul started his career as an analyst and was trained as a fund manager at Meridien Asset Management Sdn Bhd prior to moving on to RHB Bank.

He was then recruited by Malaysia Industrial Development Finance Bhd (MIDF), and assigned to Sisma Securities Sdn Bhd, which started him on the path of economic analysis.

He moved around within the Sisma Securities' group of companies before becoming an economic analyst at the Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB), and joined Bank Islam in February 2007 as its chief economist.

Azrul, who is single, said he was currently 'looking' but was de facto married to his job, politics and social activism.

Described as a simple man with a pleasing personality, like most career-minded individuals, Azrul is busy most days, working nights at the office to meet deadlines.

Malaysiakini has contacted Bank Islam for its comment, but to no avail. An inquiry email has also been sent to the bank.