The government’s successful appeal against the Sodomy II verdict is expected to have wide repercussions, as Anwar Ibrahim faces the prospect of five years in jail.

“To keep things in perspective; we are talking about a popular man whose coalition won 51 percent of the popular vote in the general election of May last year,” noted Ooi Kee Beng, (right) deputy director of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.

“Sodomy charges have been used against him since 1998 and jailing him now, just before the Kajang by-election - just two working days before nomination day in fact and thus disqualifying him - does show how good a strategic move the Kajang initiative is.

"A politically savvy and powerful Pakatan Rakyat mentri besar of Selangor would change the game totally.”  

Ooi predicted that Pakatan will win in Kajang on March 23 even without Anwar, whose wife and PKR president Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail will file her nomination tomorrow to contest the state seat.

“Many Malaysians will be upset by this conviction and in Kajang, voters will have a chance to show their anger over the conviction and their sympathy for Anwar and his family,” he said.

“There won’t be as powerful a protest as in 1998. We must remember that, back then, the conviction of Anwar for abuse of power and sodomy charges led to huge electoral losses the following year for the BN.”

He said the Malay community had reacted strongly to what they saw as unacceptable cruelty to Anwar.

“The socio-political changes we have witnessed in Malaysia over the last 15 years are very much about the young, and especially about the Malay community,” he said.

Ibrahim Suffian (left) , co-founder of Merdeka Centre, said there is much disbelief among younger Malays today with regard to the Sodomy II conviction.

“This is likely to impact the opposition coalition in the short- and medium-term," he said.

"But in the long term, Anwar’s conviction will likely galvanise public opinion for greater support of the opposition."

‘Pakatan will have to re-strategise’

Will Pakatan be able to hold it together if Anwar’s appeal - filed this morning - is overturned and he is jailed?

“The opposition coalition has been around for quite a few years now, and has been attracting huge support from young Malaysians. Furthermore, the three parties actually run three opposition states, two of which are the richest and most urban in Malaysia,” said Ooi.

“This is in many ways an established coalition and had Anwar been made menteri besar in Selangor, he would have had the chance to develop and present a formidable track record to the young Malay electorate in the next general election, making him an overwhelmingly powerful alternative Malay leader to Najib Abdul Razak.

“This might actually re-energise the opposition, which has been a bit lost since the election last year. It will definitely force them to re-strategise thoroughly.”

PKR vice-president Tian Chua (right) has declared that “the court has sentenced Anwar to five years in jail, but the rakyat will get rid of Najib in five months".

So, will Malaysia see protests on the streets comparable to the anti-government protests in Thailand?

“The tough action taken by the Malaysian government is likely to generate greater sympathy for Anwar as a martyr,” said Suffian.

“However, social media websites and forums act as pressure-relieving valves for Malaysian’s dissatisfaction nowadays and it is unlikely that there will be a need to show mass emotion comparable to what is seen in Thailand right now.”