The latest developments in the run-up to the Umno party polls at the end of this month have resulted in drastic changes in the positions of key candidates for the three vice-president posts.

Prior to this, Mustapa Mohamed and Mohd Ali Rustam were the front-runners in the hot contest, but their positions have since worsened - they are now placed fourth and fifth respectively in the unofficial popularity rankings among the 2,500-odd delegates.

Mustapa is a minister in the Prime Minister's Department as well as the chairman of Umno Kelantan, while Mohd Ali is Malacca chief minister.

On the other hand, incumbent vice-presidents Muhyiddin Yasin, who is the agriculture and agro-based industry minister, and Muhammad Muhd Taib, who holds no government posts, have recaptured the top two places in the unofficial popularity rankings, with Federal Territory Minister Isa Samad being placed third.

These new placings is the result of a sudden change in the polls strategy of delegates from Selangor, Johor and Pahang, as well as strong supporters of Hishammuddin Hussein and Khairy Jamaluddin, the incoming Umno Youth chief and deputy chief respectively.

In general, the Umno Youth duo are more inclined to retain the present Muhyiddin-Muhd Taib partnership, and teaming them up with Isa.

This line-up will better facilitate the transfer of power from the party's old guard to younger leaders in Umno at the next party polls in 2007.

New faces a threat

"By then, Hishammuddin will have to honour his pledge to relinquish his Youth head position to Khairy, and he will have no option but to contest the vice-presidency," said sources close to the delegates in the Umno general assembly to be held on Sept 23-25.

"Khairy, as head of Umno Youth, will then automatically be appointed as a vice-president together with the heads of Wanita and Puteri," they added.

As such, they said, the best way for the duo to accomplish this transition of power is to ensure that new faces with the potential to consolidate their support within the party, like Mustapa and Mohd Ali, do not win vice-president posts at the upcoming polls.

"By retaining the old faces - Muhyiddin and Muhd Taib - and teaming them up with Isa, it will be easier for Hishamuddin to win a vice-president post in the 2007 polls.

"This is because Muhd Taib and Isa will be due for retirement from politics by then, and this will offer Hishammuddin and other younger leaders, like Zahid Hamidi, the opportunity to rise up the party hierarchy," the sources stressed.

To achieve that goal, they said, the group involved will use the recent Barisan Nasional victory in Kuala Berang to persuade delegates to vote for Muhd Taib, who was BN chief poll coordinator in the by-election.

"As for Muhyiddin, they will argue that he is someone whom Abdullah Ahmad Badawi trusts, so he should be retained as vice-president," they added.

Win or lose

Isa, the sources said, is popular enough with the delegates who have already gathered in large numbers in Kuala Lumpur.

Aside from that, the position of Mustapa, who is the Umno Kelantan chairperson, has suffered from a campaign by certain quarters to influence delegates not to pick him as he would, win or lose, still secure a post in the government and the party.

According to them, this was clearly proven by the previous appointment of Mustapa as the chairman of the National Economic Action Council (NEAC) even though he held no party post.

"And just look at his recent appointment as a minister after the general election," they said.

The two other candidates for the posts of vice-president are the dark horses - Pahang Menteri Besar Adnan Yaakob and chairman of the Backbenchers Club, Shahrir Samad, who is also the MP for Johor Baru.