The statement by Umno head and Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi that the party had closed its doors to ex-deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim is believed to be aimed at calming supporters of his deputy, Najib Abdul Razak.

"Pak Lah (Abdullah) himself does not have any problems with Anwar ... it is only Najib, who is still seen as Dr Mahathir (Mohamad)'s 'strongman' in the party, who was once Anwar's enemy No. 1," said sources close to Umno when contacted today.

They said that, in any form, Anwar's presence in Umno would threaten Najib's position as there are still many Anwar supporters and sympathisers in the party.

"If Pak Lah (as Abdullah is popularly known) had not made any statement to quash the rumours about Anwar being re-admitted to Umno, his own position would have been in jeopardy if Najib's people were to move against him," they added.

Two days ago, Pak Lah had clarified that there was no secret deal between him and Anwar to bring the former deputy party leader back into Umno.

The Umno president-designate said he has also explained the matter to the menteris besar and cabinet ministers following rumours of a deal.

Staunch supporters

According to the sources, many Umno members feel that it would be better for Pak Lah to maintain the status quo in the party for now, rather than do anything that may imperil his position.

"When Keadilan was set up, not many Umno members left the party to join it, even though they sympathised with the former deputy prime minister ... apart from from several who were staunch supporters of Anwar...

"Actually, Keadilan's strength comes from NGOs and youth organisations ... not from those Umno members who left to join Keadilan," they said.

They said this was why Keadilan did not benefit from contesting the 1999 general election, when Barisan Nasional, and in particular Umno, lost badly. Instead, the opposition parties that did well were PAS and DAP.

"Umno's defeats then were also due to party members who had not voted in protest of Anwar's sacking... but the important thing is, they still remained in Umno."

"This is different from the case of Semangat 46 (S46) which was led by Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah. It drew many members from the deregistered Umno in 1987."

According to the sources, when Razaleigh later dissolved S46 and rejoined Umno, many had thought that he would regain his former strength as all S46 members rejoined Umno together with him.

"However, unknown to Razaleigh, his supporters had problems with readmission due to action at branch and division levels to delay approval of their applications.

"That situation resulted in the supreme council (SC) being forced to make the decision that all membership applications submitted by former S46 members should be sent directly to the SC for approval."

The sources said the difference between the political scenario when Razaleigh sought to rejoin Umno and the present scenario, is that Anwar's supporters are already in Umno

"Due to that, Pak Lah understands Najib's concerns about Anwar being accepted back into Umno...

"What's more, this time, not only are there Umno leaders who feel that Anwar should not be allowed back into the party, but leaders of BN component parties also feel the same way.

"For example, Gerakan president Lim Keng Yaik, in his speech during his party's general assembly last Saturday, advised Anwar not to create more 'disturbances' after being freed by the Federal Court."