ANALYSIS After PAS declared its non-participation in the coming Bersih rally, many raised worries of a repeat of the Bersih 4 scenario: Malay participation will be at a low ebb, and it will be another "Chinese" rally.

With this in mind, Bersih stepped out of its comfort zone in the Klang Valley to conduct a nearly two-month nationwide roadshow prior to the Nov 19 rally.

However, Bersih may have missed its first golden opportunity to whip support when United States' Department of Justice filed its 1MDB lawsuit and people's anger was at its peak.

Nearly four months after this, political anger has turned down several notches, giving way to political fatigue. This may dampen the rally's turnout.

On another front, Umno has launched a psychological warfare and threatened to blacklist businesses that support Bersih.

Minister in the Prime Minister's Department Abdul Rahman Dahlan has backed Utusan Malaysia’s urging to blacklist companies that sponsor the Bersih movement.

Although this proposal is limited to companies that rely on government projects, Bersih's supporters, who are mostly from the urban middle class, may now fear being the next target.

Also, given that the last Bersih rally was labelled as a "Chinese rally", some of Bersih's Chinese supporters are now trying to keep a distance from the movement, worrying that their presence will be a disservice to the cause.

A choice between Butterfingers and Bersih

Perhaps the most unexpected unfavourable factor is that the Bersih 5 rally falls on the same date as Rockaway 2016, Malaysia’s biggest rock festival.

The festival will be headlined by arguably Malaysia’s most iconic Malay alternative rock band, Butterfingers, which is making its comeback eight years after the last album, Kembali, for the band’s 20th anniversary.

Undoubtedly, this put youngsters between a rock and a hard place, and some have expressed that Butterfingers would be priority, if a choice has to be made.

Despite assistance from Malay parties such as Bersatu and Amanah to penetrate the Malay heartlands, many are still in the dark about Bersih 5.

According to former student activist Safwan Anang (photo), who then led Bersih convoys in the Malay-majority East Coast states, the response was positive in Kelantan and Pahang, but not so in Terengganu.

This is especially in some areas controlled by PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang's faction.

“For instance, when we met some PAS supporters in Marang (Hadi's constituency), they turned their back after saying 'Oh, you are from Bersih'. We do not know for sure if they have received party instructions not to join Bersih.

"But we went to many pasar areas in Terengganu… many people still have no idea about the Bersih 5 rally. In Terengganu, they mostly read newspapers and watch TV3, rather than read news from the Internet," Safwan told Malaysiakini.

Compared to the relatively "peaceful" East Coast states, the Bersih convoy has encountered a series of violent attacks on it in the West Coast, and red-shirt leader Jamal Md Yunos has already declared war against Bersih.

This is seen as posing as some deterrence to potential Bersih supporters.

'PAS members still support, but not publicly'

However, Bersih steering committee member Jay Jay Denis, who led the convoy in the West Coast, remains optimistic for a higher Malay turnout this time.

There is an exodus from Umno and two political parties, Bersatu and Amanah are helping in the mobilisation of people for the Nov 19 rally, Jay Jay said.

"People are moving away from Umno, and they are not sure what to do. And now we have two political parties, Bersatu and Amanah, which are mobilising people.

"Even people in PAS realise that people from Umno are walking out. They think, ‘And we have supported Bersih in the past three rallies, so why don't we support them when their demands are almost the same?’" he added.

PAS members may not publicly declare support for Bersih, he added, but most still quietly back the electoral reform movement despite the disapproval by the party leadership.

"I have worked with some people with PAS, they realise there is a problem and they want to act, but probably they don't want to be seen as supporting Bersih," Jay Jay said.

Unlike previous rallies, Bersih’s nationwide outreach campaign has laid the groundwork for the rally, he said.

"Even if the people from the outer states are not able to come on 19th, they have already participated in the local events," he told Malaysiakini.

Citing a ceramah in Teluk Intan, Jay Jay said it attracted a high number of Malay participants, even though it was in a Chinese area.

According to a participant of a previous Bersih rally, people will no longer join just because they are angry. This time around, they also want to see an alternative that is able to replace the current political chaos.

"They want to see a viable alternative, and we don't have that person in the opposition… Moreover, people are afraid of the red-shirts," said the participant who declined to be named.

These factors will contribute to a drop in total turnout, despite a possible increase in the proportion of Malay participants.