Poll: BN stands better chance winning S'gor with new boundaries
BN may stand a better chance of winning Selangor in the next general election by winning an extra 11 state seats following the Election Commission's proposed redelineation exercise, according to pollster Politweet.
According to its simulation of the next general election, BN may win 17 to 23 state seats out of 56 due the increase of high-risk seats. It won only 12 seats in the 2013 polls.
The results were derived from 1,000 simulations conducted by Politweet, after assuming straight fights between the ruling parties and BN, unchanged voter sentiments and same voter turnout as in the 2013 election.
BN may stand a better chance of winning Selangor in the next general election by winning an extra 11 state seats following the Election Commission's proposed redelineation exercise, according to pollster Politweet.
According to its simulation of the next general election, BN may win 17 to 23 state seats out of 56 due the increase of high-risk seats. It won only 12 seats in the 2013 polls.
The results were derived from 1,000 simulations conducted by Politweet, after assuming straight fights between the ruling parties and BN, unchanged voter sentiments and same voter turnout as in the 2013 election.
PAS may end up as the biggest loser, as it risks losing eight state seats, said Politweet in its report.
The Islamist party has only 13 state seats representatives, after its two state representatives left for Amanah.
"Redelineation has resulted in an electoral map where BN’s odds of increasing their number of seats has improved and the odds of retaining their existing seats improves as well," said the report as quoted by Malay Mail Online today.
"BN’s gains come at the expense of PKR and PAS, though PAS loses the most. PAS is expected to lose five to eight seats and see their number of high-risk seats increase," it said.
PAS would likely win only seven to 10 seats after the redelineation, compared to between 11 and 13 previously.
"Out of the seven minimum seats PAS is expected to win, four are at risk. A swing to BN in PAS seats can see PAS reduced from 15 seats in GE13 to three seats.
“This could give BN a potential total of 27 seats, needing only two more at-risk seats from PKR in order to win control of the state,” Politweet said.
Prior to EC's Sept 15 proposed redelineation, Politweet predicted both PKR and DAP could control the state government without the help of PAS.
The winnable seats for both parties have reduced to 26 seats after redelineation came into the picture. Previously, it was 30, one more than the simple majority of 29 needed to form the state government.
“It is likely that after redelineation PKR and DAP will have to continue to be on good terms with PAS to retain control of the state government,” said Politweet.
Pakatan Rakyat had secured a two-thirds majority in Selangor by winning 44 seats in the 2013 poll. But the coalition declared its demise in June 2015, fragmenting the ruling power in the state.
Pakatan Harapan only secured 29 seats after two representatives exited the party and were expelled.
The pollster said a total 443,484 voters - 37 percent Malays, 44 percent Chinese and 18 percent Indians - would be transferred between existing seats due to the redelineation, changing the number of voters and ethnic composition in each seat.
In its latest redelineation exercise, the EC is seeking to change the names of 12 parliamentary seats and 34 state constituencies nationwide ahead of the next general election due in 2018.


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